JTH's Account Talk

[BichonFreeze]

You're absolutely right, timing the market and TSP are not compatible. And frankly these first 5 months of trying out timing haven't worked for me too well.

I'm feeling like I'll go back to buy and hold, but I don't want to be trapped if there is the fabled correction that looms in the shadows.

 

[JTH]

BF, are you a member of a premium service?

 

[BichonFreeze]

Nope. Ive considered it though. Might subscribe after I buy my house in a few months. I'm a cheap person so I'm a bit torn over it.

 

[JTH]

Nope. Ive considered it though. Might subscribe after I buy my house in a few months. I'm a cheap person so I'm a bit torn over it.

Cool, not everyone wants to be a buy & holder (I get that) but at the same time, if you have an account with 10,000 then if a premium service makes you 2% then the service has already paid for itself. 20 bucks a month is chump change and is certainly less than the price of cutting your teeth. I don't pay that fee (not because I'm cheap) but because this is something I am very passionate about. I was fortunate in the beginning years to be a buy & holder when it was most important. Later on, as I ventured out on my own, there were many lessons I learned but TSP's platform had unlimited IFTs, so I could afford to "learn as I go."

Some folks think me to be a good trader, of the 5-full years I've been on the AT, I have only outperformed the S&P 500 1 of those last 5 years. Of the past 7 years, the S&P 500 has an 18.11% edge over me. That's a lot of work to be under-performing the markets.

 

[JTH]

Will the indexes pullback?

From current levels, if we can close tomorrow below 8060, then I suspect a -2% drop in the near future to 7930, this would be roughly a 50% retracement of the recent 13-day upwave.

View attachment 28882

 

[BichonFreeze]

Premium service is definitely a fair price if you can get the returns, especially if you have a large balance (in my case not so much because I'm relatively new). I'm certainly in the "learn as I go" stage, which is a bit frustrating because I've quickly learned how TSP's limitations can work against you. They say knowledge is power, but I think in my case more knowledge of the market has made me more hesitant towards trusting my gut. This has lead to me issuing trades either a day late or a day too early and getting caught in the S fund on a day that drops 1 to 2 % instead of the day before where it grew or fell by much less in the wild days beginning this year.

Shoulda woulda coulda always hits hard when you're on the losing side, but it's always good to have the same mindset when you're winning, which is why I really like the analyses offered on this website such as yours, Bquat's and Tom's daily bits. I have a Master's in Econ so it's unlikely this desire to follow the market will ever wane. You could say I can relate to your passion in the industry, which at least in my case makes it all the more difficult for me to yield to someone else's analysis in the premium fields. Ultimately, I'll probably sign up for two reasons: I don't have the time to conduct the level of analysis I need and don't want to drive myself mad venturing into the rabbit hole of data.

 

[JTH]

Will the indexes pullback?

From current levels, if we can close tomorrow below 8060, then I suspect a -2% drop in the near future to 7930, this would be roughly a 50% retracement of the recent 13-day upwave.

View attachment 28882

No dice

From current levels, if we can close tomorrow below 8080, then I suspect a -2% drop in the near future to 7930, this would be roughly a 50% retracement of the recent 14-day upwave.

View attachment 28908

 

[CrabClaw]

No dice

From current levels, if we can close tomorrow below 8080, then I suspect a -2% drop in the near future to 7930, this would be roughly a 50% retracement of the recent 14-day upwave.

View attachment 28908

This is certainly a listless market. Initial response in futures from the ECB decision is positive, but, I could see a pop and drop taking place after the open. Transports are bucking the trend a little when compared the the indexes the last couple of days. We will know soon enough, today should have more action.

 

[airlift]

This is certainly a listless market. Initial response in futures from the ECB decision is positive, but, I could see a pop and drop taking place after the open. Transports are bucking the trend a little when compared the the indexes the last couple of days. We will know soon enough, today should have more action.

After the ECB decision to cut rates came out this A.M., the initial response in the futures was positive in the cash futures. But futures have continued to remain very positive at 9:14 A.M. I see your point that there could be a pop and drop taking place after the open. However, if liquidity keeps increasing, and breadth stays positive, we could also see a run-away rally and later on, a drop from much higher levels. That is, today's market action could trigger a continued rally in stocks, and not an expected pull-back. Any other views, please?

 

[sdouglas3]

With tomorrow's job report my guess is it will stay flat up until then.

 

[JTH]

Markets are breaking out as we speak, not a strong breakout but definitely a breakout.

 

[Birchtree]

The market is prescient - it sees European QE on the horizon and a lot of it. Prepare for the summer melt up.

 

[BichonFreeze]

Any other views, please?

Now that we've opened, I think the more telling sign here is a run up in the F-Fund despite increases in the other funds. To me it shows that there should be more attention on the volume traded then taking these numbers face value.

**Edit: seems like the weasel just popped.

 

[Valkyrie]

Prepare for the summer melt up.

A stock-market prediction that

"That’s the strong implication of Sam Eisenstadt’s latest six-month forecast, which is calling for the S&P 500 /quotes/zigman/3870025/realtime SPX +0.36% to be above 2,100 at the end of November, 10% higher than where it stands today.


Six months ago, when the S&P 500 was trading just above 1,800, he was forecasting that this index would today be around 1,970. As fate would have it, the index made it to “only” 1,925.
In the messy world of stock market prognostication, that has to be graded as impressive. I doubt that any of the bulls who acted on his forecast are complaining."

 

[JTH]

Markets are breaking out as we speak, not a strong breakout but definitely a breakout.

Buyers stepped in, they must know something, I've definitely missed this cycle, it will be fun to see how this plays out.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Buyers stepped in, they must know something, I've definitely missed this cycle, it will be fun to see how this plays out.

I'm not sure if it will be fun, but it will definitely play out............

It's funny, I'm currently sitting in the G fund and up over 9% for the year while the S fund was up 2.11% as of yesterday, of course it will be up more today, but now I get upset subscribers saying that it is just like last year and I keep missing "all" the rallies and telling me how much my system sux. Some even suggest that I do! You sure you don't wanna be a premium service?

 

[amoeba]

Run a special and I'll think about it

I'm not sure if it will be fun, but it will definitely play out............

It's funny, I'm currently sitting in the G fund and up over 9% for the year while the S fund was up 2.11% as of yesterday, of course it will be up more today, but now I get upset subscribers saying that it is just like last year and I keep missing "all" the rallies and telling me how much my system sux. Some even suggest that I do! You sure you don't wanna be a premium service?

Hey - JTH was the quarterly earnings leader in the non-subscribers - not bad. That said, how about a first-timer's mid-year special and I'll think about it!!!

 

[craigerv]

...I get upset subscribers saying that it is just like last year and I keep missing "all" the rallies and telling me how much my system sux. Some even suggest that I do!...

People who don't understand data always focus on the noise. Like you always say its important to take notice of the body of work and not just an outlier year.

 

[Cactus]

IT, don't tell me you want out and to come back to having fun outside the PS world. Just remember that some people are never happy. It's just human nature. My wife cashiers at a store that sold petunias for $2.39 a pony pack locally even though the national add advertised them for 2 for $5. They had all kinds of complaints over that for two years. You just couldn't convince the buying public that they were getting a better deal. Her store finally solved the problem this year by matching the national ad. The moral of the story? You aren't charging enough! Hike your rates and everyone will be happy.

 

[JTH]

I'm not sure if it will be fun, but it will definitely play out............

It's funny, I'm currently sitting in the G fund and up over 9% for the year while the S fund was up 2.11% as of yesterday, of course it will be up more today, but now I get upset subscribers saying that it is just like last year and I keep missing "all" the rallies and telling me how much my system sux. Some even suggest that I do! You sure you don't wanna be a premium service?

Funny, I think we always knew customer service was never your strong suite, but when the hard decisions need to be made, that's where you shine and I think most folks would agree with me. I was writing in my trading journal the other day because this very topic was on my mind, I originally didn't plan on posting it because it would probably come off as arrogant, but since you opened the door, I'll share the excerpt.

___
Short-term thinking leads to short-term results.

Two intrafund transfers a month with a 4-hour gap between the initiation & execution of price, does not a short-term trading system make. People who fail to identify & determine if their goals are compatible with TSP’s long-term trading platform will struggle to be successful. When a person seeks to impose their short-term views over a long-term system, they will fail to perform because the two timeframes are largely incompatible.