JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

I do have to say, I would not have suggested trying Ninja to the majority, frankly most of you aren't willing to put in the work required to get it up and running, but once it's working, I think you can learn something from it. Some of you here have helped me a great deal with my more complex excel formulas, those are the type of people who should be able to do well with this platform (the ones who understand writing conditional concepts.)

I simply let Mindylou handle all the scut work - she's my go getter.

If folks actually knew how much time I spend doing this, they would just go ahead and join a Premium Service. You have to love to do this, from the time I wake up to the time I go to bed, I think about price...You don't want this disease

 

[jpcavin]

If folks actually knew how much time I spend doing this, they would just go ahead and join a Premium Service. You have to love to do this, from the time I wake up to the time I go to bed, I think about price...You don't want this disease

I was like this for a while. I neglected my family, work and myself. Prices consumed my whole life. I had to quit. Now I just use the BT method: "set it and forget it". I'm much happier now and I have more "qi". :toung:

 

[tsptalk]

I was like this for a while. I neglected my family, work and myself. Prices consumed my whole life. I had to quit. Now I just use the BT method: "set it and forget it". I'm much happier now and I have more "qi". :toung:

BT has some thick skin and can withstand the pain of a correction / bear market. That's the tough part.

 

[jkenjohnson]

If folks actually knew how much time I spend doing this, they would just go ahead and join a Premium Service. You have to love to do this, from the time I wake up to the time I go to bed, I think about price...You don't want this disease

Reward yourself by starting your own premium service! Then it might really be worth it.

 

[CrabClaw]

Reward yourself by starting your own premium service! Then it might really be worth it.

I would think Jason could do well running a premium service. His TA and ability to read the market has been very solid over the years.

 

[BichonFreeze]

Reward yourself by starting your own premium service! Then it might really be worth it.

I think that might defeat the joy he gets out of it though. It goes from being fun to being work.

 

[CrabClaw]

I think that might defeat the joy he gets out of it though. It goes from being fun to being work.

that is true, it would require a lot more responsibility I'm sure.

 

[Cactus]

I think that might defeat the joy he gets out of it though. It goes from being fun to being work.

Yeah, and this way Jason can take off for summer vacation, enjoying what he has earned so far, and start up again whenever he feels like it.

I can't imagine that running a premium service would pay you enough for all the work that goes into it. I guess you would have to ask those doing it. Then there is Tom running this whole site -- he has got to love it.

 

[Longstreet]

Yeah, and this way Jason can take off for summer vacation, enjoying what he has earned so far, and start up again whenever he feels like it.

I can't imagine that running a premium service would pay you enough for all the work that goes into it. I guess you would have to ask those doing it. Then there is Tom running this whole site -- he has got to love it.

Considering the returns that some premium services make (not talking about the one's associated with this site), I'm not sure how much work some put into it!

 

[maverick06]

I think BirchTree should start a premium service. You send him $5 a month, and he send you an email that says "BUY!"

 

[Birchtree]

For a minute there I thought Khotex was talking - my mistake, I should have looked closer. I don't need no more money than I can carry to the bank. Don't short or run away from this market for the next 15 years and you'll do very well - no one needs any premium service for such simple information. Snort. I have a +$300K June in my future.

 

[JTH]

IFT 100F EoB today

 

[BichonFreeze]

The master of coin speaks! All being said probably not a bad move.

 

[BichonFreeze]

JTH, just some reasoning if you're willing to share. You know you can nod in agreement, or disagreement. But was your move today impacted by getting out of the market before Friday's job's numbers? I have a strong feeling those numbers might be the tipping point for sending the market up or down, and was eying an exit for Wednesday after the trade balance numbers come out.

I guess today's market has been trying to figure out which way to break, and the collapse in the F-Fund makes the room for growth their attractive as an alternative to wait out whatever happens in the C-S-I Funds.

 

[Bill3438]

IFT 100F EoB today

JTH
I know you forgot, but you were going to call me when making a move. 911-Help-Dumb-Bill
Thank You Sir

 

[JTH]

JTH, just some reasoning if you're willing to share. You know you can nod in agreement, or disagreement. But was your move today impacted by getting out of the market before Friday's job's numbers? I have a strong feeling those numbers might be the tipping point for sending the market up or down, and was eying an exit for Wednesday after the trade balance numbers come out.

I guess today's market has been trying to figure out which way to break, and the collapse in the F-Fund makes the room for growth their attractive as an alternative to wait out whatever happens in the C-S-I Funds.

BF, generally I don't trade the news, didn't even know there's a jobs report coming up. From the moment of the S-Fund entry on 21 May, I knew an exit sometime in early June was probable, here's why.
___

From 29 May 2014 (Friday's high was 109.50)

Let's speculate...For those of you sidelined, this will be a tough place to take an entry, that 1010 shelf of resistance is strong. Even if we breakout, I can see topping out in the 1015-1020 area and from there putting in a reversal to the downside. Some of us will be starting out the month un-invested, I would ask you to consider for yourself if you are willing to consume a valuable IFT to risk a 1% gain verses a -5% loss. Kindly put, based on TSP's limitations, this is not the place where a rational trader should take an entry. This is my opinion, if I'm wrong I can live with myself (money missed is better than money lost) but if I'm right then I won't lose any sleep if you lose any money.

From 28 May 2014 (Today's high was 925.88)

Now for the projection

From my perspective, many patterns fail to reach their full target, so I like to use Fibonacci levels to look for the sweet spots.

1) We take the flag pole and place a Fibonacci copy at the price objective
2) Based on these projections I would estimate a 1918-1930 price objective (or 50% to 100%)
3) My estimate is 1925 because I like round numbers and it is a 76.4% Fibonacci number

From 28 May 2014

Until otherwise proven, the trading range on the Wilshire 4500 is 970-1010

From 27 May 2014

You may not get much opportunity to feel bad about the missed gains, several sell signals have and will get triggered today.

From 27 May 2014

Prices were compressed both within the 34-day trading range and the Bollinger Bands. At present, prices are expanding, the Bollinger Bands are expanding, seasonality is our tail-wind and I fully expect to test the top of the rising wedge.

Next target 1925...

From 26 May 2014

A marks the spot...

From 24 May 2014

For the Wilshire 4500, here is what I expect over the next 15 days till June 17th

Bulls: 1.6-4.5% gain over the next 15 days, Bears: 2.8-5.8% loss over the next 15 days

From 20 May 2014 (the day prior to my IFT into the S-Fund)

Potential for another short-term bounce, check out the spike in volume off IWM overlaid the W4500 chart. This is the largest volume over the past month with the 3rd largest daily volume over the past 6 months. As always...confirmation is needed

 

[TSPIntel]

Re: Look who's talking

JTH, thank U for sharing, it seems to me U R a very into technical analysis and on the top to the tracker. CONGRATULATIONS!!! It seems it is working very well 4 U.

 

[BichonFreeze]

Took me a while going back last night to match your commentary to the market conditions on those days.

I'll have to say your commentary with the Fibonacci numbers is probably the most signaling for this next market move. I've been noticing that the trading range for the W^4500 has consistently hit it's head at 1010 and needs an extra push to break through.

Will the extra push come with new this week? Maybe, but no one knows for sure, especially since the last couple of reports haven't yielded much reaction in the market. I'm more news based (we see how well that's worked for me), so I'm thinking that the jobs report will probably turn the market down. Looking off of Tom's seasonality chart that'd be the slightly positive day 5 in June which is right next to the the sharply negative trending day 6.

I've been planning for a Wednesday exit based off of the trade balance reported, but if today's action is choppy enough I may leave.

 

[CrabClaw]

Well played, Jason, well played

 

[JTH]

BF, it is rare when I encounter traders who are successful with speculating on economic events. For myself, I would not attempt to trade short-term news cycles with TSP's long-term trading platform, the two timeframes are generally incompatible.

Three things are going to happen.

1) Market goes up
2) Market does nothing
3) Market goes down

In this scenario, the trader has 1 in 3 chance of being right, digging further, when you factor in the IFT limits with the 4-hour delay between price initiation to execution and the odds go down even further.