JTH's Account Talk

[jkenjohnson]

Thank you for the kind comments, I don't use a mechanical system, most everything I do is fly-by-wire. Much is based on synchronicity between the major indexes along side price, volume and time. These processes are in a continuous state of evolution where I am not bound by rules but instead have replaced rules with guidelines. For me, the markets are like a council of advisors, I do my best to listen to their guidance, while at the same time not trying to interject what I think they should do. I identify, understand and accept when I am wrong, having that mindset has helped me
tremendously,

Come on JT, spill the beans.

 

[Birchtree]

Thank you for the kind comments, I don't use a mechanical system, most everything I do is fly-by-wire. Much is based on synchronicity between the major indexes along side price, volume and time. These processes are in a continuous state of evolution where I am not bound by rules but instead have replaced rules with guidelines. For me, the markets are like a council of advisors, I do my best to listen to their guidance, while at the same time not trying to interject what I think they should do. I identify, understand and accept when I am wrong, having that mindset has helped me tremendously,

Especially with those hefty transports.

 

[JTH]

Re: Look who's talking

Prices are overbought, you know it, I know it, we all know it.

On the 15-Minute chart we can see the clearly defined failed Head & Shoulders pattern, afterwards we formed a W-pattern, followed by a double top breakout on the Tuesday's gap up. What's important to understand is why we stopped here.

1) The head is 75% of the most recent 6-day wave starting on the 20-May swing low.
2) The right shoulder is just under 50% of the most recent 6-day wave starting on the 20-May swing low.
3) Over the past 2 days we have consolidated, forming potential for a flag.
View attachment 28790



And here's the flag,

1) The pole can be drawn at 1892
2) 1892 is where we put in a minor dip
3) 1892 is where price momentum stopped at the head and broke down at the head
4) See the 3 green circles for the 1892 levels of support & resistance
View attachment 28791



Now for the projection

From my perspective, many patterns fail to reach their full target, so I like to use Fibonacci levels to look for the sweet spots.

1) We take the flag pole and place a Fibonacci copy at the price objective
2) Based on these projections I would estimate a 1918-1930 price objective (or 50% to 100%)
3) My estimate is 1925 because I like round numbers and it is a 76.4% Fibonacci number
View attachment 28792


Lastly, the odds of me being wrong are significantly greater than the odds of me being right

 

[burrocrat]

so where is your money at? and how long do you plan to leave it there?

 

[JTH]

so where is your money at? and how long do you plan to leave it there?

My ROTH IRA money is what I call dead money it's tied up in positions which have been going sideways to up, currently sitting in about 25% cash.

 

[burrocrat]

Re: Look who's talking

you're killing it on the tracker this month, and great on the year.

is your last chart indicatiing a climb to the upside? did i see/read that graphic right?

 

[JTH]

Re: Look who's talking

you're killing it on the tracker this month, and great on the year.

is your last chart indicatiing a climb to the upside? did i see/read that graphic right?

You read it right, will it happen? Haven't a clue

 

[Bquat]

Re: Look who's talking

Prices are overbought, you know it, I know it, we all know it.

On the 15-Minute chart we can see the clearly defined failed Head & Shoulders pattern, afterwards we formed a W-pattern, followed by a double top breakout on the Tuesday's gap up. What's important to understand is why we stopped here.

1) The head is 75% of the most recent 6-day wave starting on the 20-May swing low.
2) The right shoulder is just under 50% of the most recent 6-day wave starting on the 20-May swing low.
3) Over the past 2 days we have consolidated, forming potential for a flag.



And here's the flag,

1) The pole can be drawn at 1892
2) 1892 is where we put in a minor dip
3) 1892 is where price momentum stopped at the head and broke down at the head
4) See the 3 green circles for the 1892 levels of support & resistance



Now for the projection

From my perspective, many patterns fail to reach their full target, so I like to use Fibonacci levels to look for the sweet spots.

1) We take the flag pole and place a Fibonacci copy at the price objective
2) Based on these projections I would estimate a 1918-1930 price objective (or 50% to 100%)
3) My estimate is 1925 because I like round numbers and it is a 76.4% Fibonacci number



Lastly, the odds of me being wrong are significantly greater than the odds of me being right

I feel we stopped here because everyone was expecting a post holiday reversal that didn't come. When this is realized the move up should continue. This is my thought.:suspicious:

 

[JTH]

Re: Look who's talking

I feel we stopped here because everyone was expecting a post holiday reversal that didn't come. When this is realized the move up should continue. This is my thought.:suspicious:

Correct, when time aligns with prices, the odds are stronger

 

[JTH]

Correct, when time aligns with prices, the odds are stronger

I wanted to expand on this a bit further but was rushed on time. Post-holiday reversals are a hoax perpetrated upon us, the reality is "it depends on the direction of price leading into the holiday. If we had a sell-off before the holiday, then we would expect a reversal based on the light volume that resumes post-holiday.

However, on this occasion, prices climbed leading into the holiday, therefore a post-holiday reversal was not to be expected. The point is that if sellers are going to exit, they will do so before the holiday (to reduce risk) not after the holiday.

This is called the Pre-Holiday effect "The general strategy is to purchase equities one or two days prior to a holiday. Short-term traders would look to sell just after the holiday while longer-term investors would wait until year end."

 

[Cactus]

Now you tell us. Oh well, better late than never -- I think.

 

[JTH]

Now you tell us. Oh well, better late than never -- I think.

I'm confused, tell you what?

 

[Cactus]

Sorry, Jason. I was referring to your good explanation of the Holiday Effect since I was one of those expecting it to drop on Tuesday. It was more an issue of me venting and learning so please disregard my comment. I didn't mean for it to come out as an attack against you. :embarrest:

 

[JTH]

Sorry, Jason. I was referring to your good explanation of the Holiday Effect since I was one of those expecting it to drop on Tuesday. It was more an issue of me venting and learning so please disregard my comment. I didn't mean for it to come out as an attack against you. :embarrest:

No problem, I didn't see it as an attack, just wasn't sure if you were referring to the Pre-holiday post or the Bull flag post (which reached its 1918 minimum price target today).

I have posted the pre-holiday link a handful of times over the years, sometimes I make the assumption that everyone knows these things already. In all fairness, not once did I say or project we would get a post holiday reversal, there's a reason for this, it's because I never thought it would happen. At the same time, if I disagreed with what everyone else thought in this forum, I wouldn't have too many friends.

 

[Bquat]

No problem, I didn't see it as an attack, just wasn't sure if you were referring to the Pre-holiday post or the Bull flag post (which reached its 1918 minimum price target today).

I have posted the pre-holiday link a handful of times over the years, sometimes I make the assumption that everyone knows these things already. In all fairness, not once did I say or project we would get a post holiday reversal, there's a reason for this, it's because I never thought it would happen. At the same time, if I disagreed with what everyone else thought in this forum, I wouldn't have too many friends.

post holiday trend reversal was an Oscarism ( Live with Oscar) that got stuck in my head.

 

[JTH]

post holiday trend reversal was an Oscarism ( Live with Oscar) that got stuck in my head.

It's all good, I love Oscar as much as the next guy, but he doesn't trade under our conditions and with the timeframe he does trade, he's often wrong. Still, I don't give him much crap because at least he attempts to call levels unlike other chartist. There is (or was) a pre-holiday phenomenon, but my own personal scans with it are mixed, so much so that I do not take these events into account unless they happen to line up with my cycles. Some of the TA stuff that has been regurgitated for decades is no longer valid but the only way to know that for ourselves is through rigorous and boring backtesting.

 

[JTH]

Re: letting it ride?

Until otherwise proven, the trading range on the Wilshire 4500 is 970-1010

View attachment 28776

A marks the spot...

View attachment 28767

RISK OFF

Anyone remember these charts?

If you are already invested or are going to jump in this Month, this does not apply to you.

Let's speculate...For those of you sidelined, this will be a tough place to take an entry, that 1010 shelf of resistance is strong. Even if we breakout, I can see topping out in the 1015-1020 area and from there putting in a reversal to the downside. Some of us will be starting out the month un-invested, I would ask you to consider for yourself if you are willing to consume a valuable IFT to risk a 1% gain verses a -5% loss. Kindly put, based on TSP's limitations, this is not the place where a rational trader should take an entry. This is my opinion, if I'm wrong I can live with myself (money missed is better than money lost) but if I'm right then I won't lose any sleep if you lose any money.

View attachment 28800

 

[userque]

No problem, I didn't see it as an attack, just wasn't sure if you were referring to the Pre-holiday post or the Bull flag post (which reached its 1918 minimum price target today).

I have posted the pre-holiday link a handful of times over the years, sometimes I make the assumption that everyone knows these things already. In all fairness, not once did I say or project we would get a post holiday reversal, there's a reason for this, it's because I never thought it would happen. At the same time, if I disagreed with what everyone else thought in this forum, I wouldn't have too many friends.

emphasis added

Yes, the all powerful, well documented, unwavering, crowd/mob effect.

You may lose a majority of friends for simply and only (frequently?) disagreeing with them, but at the same time, you should gain the respect of other folks for having the fortitude to speak what you believe--despite pomp and circumstance and the crowds/mobs.

Nice come-up on the tracker btw!:nuts:

 

[JTH]

emphasis added

Yes, the all powerful, well documented, unwavering, crowd/mob effect.

You may lose a majority of friends for simply and only (frequently?) disagreeing with them, but at the same time, you should gain the respect of other folks for having the fortitude to speak what you believe--despite pomp and circumstance and the crowds/mobs.

Nice come-up on the tracker btw!:nuts:

That is a nice observation, there are other things I consider too. I try not to shut people down or shut them out because I gain valuable incite from the forum. As long as I've been here, I've gotten to know the personalities and for me, those personalities start to become trading systems. It may sound weird, but I think like a computer, constantly compiling 1s and 0s with the data I receive, thus getting a better outlook. I also especially enjoy it when people post things (like charts) that I completely disagree with or never saw coming. This forces me to confirm my assumptions, it is without this diversity I wouldn't have a comparison for myself. As arrogant as I might appear to be, I appreciate and respect these disagreements.

Using the Auto Tracker as an example, the higher I am, the less diversity there is and the harder it is for me to see the ebb n flow, thus the harder it is to use this system as a means to trade.

 

[userque]

That is a nice observation, there are other things I consider too. I try not to shut people down or shut them out because I gain valuable incite from the forum. As long as I've been here, I've gotten to know the personalities and for me, those personalities start to become trading systems. It may sound weird, but I think like a computer, constantly compiling 1s and 0s with the data I receive, thus getting a better outlook. I also especially enjoy it when people post things (like charts) that I completely disagree with or never saw coming. This forces me to confirm my assumptions, it is without this diversity I wouldn't have a comparison for myself. As arrogant as I might appear to be, I appreciate and respect these disagreements.

Using the Auto Tracker as an example, the higher I am, the less diversity there is and the harder it is for me to see the ebb n flow, thus the harder it is to use this system as a means to trade.

True that. Honesty comes at a cost. Sadly, many get discombobulated when faced with disagreement. Politics.

....

Based upon what I've read from you over the months, I would suggest you are an intuitive trader. You may not agree. Or maybe it's true and you don't realize it yet.

I recently read (no link, sorry) about a trader who tried every system, and failed over a long period of time. But when he would just happened to notice other charts on the monitors of other daytraders...while he was away from his computer...he was very accurate at picking the trade/direction. When he winged it, he was accurate: when he tried to calculate trades, he was not.

He then concluded that there is no more powerful computer/system than the human brain. Just let it do its thing. That's how he mainly trades (successfully) now; by simply looking at the chart, and making the call.

He thinks this ability came from his brain viewing so many charts over and over again, day in, day out, over a long period of time.

You reminded me of this when you recently mentioned that you "fly by wire."

My personal opinion is that you trade intuitively, but don't realize it. That anyone can use T/A to support either direction. That your T/A is driven by your intuition, and not that your trades are driven by your T/A.

imho