JTH's Account Talk

[amoeba]

letting it ride?

Looks like futures rising for tomorrow (not a real good indicator in a low volatility market anyhow):

No IFT shown - letting it ride, or undecided? I would not be surprised at 1,010-1,015 in the S-fund this week (~2% from right now). But that's not a prediction, just my admission of acceptance that the market can do many things I don't expect - and a further jump this week is one of them. It could do anything else as well.

 

[JTH]

Re: letting it ride?

A marks the spot...

View attachment 28767

 

[ebbnflow]

Some time ago, I was giving this guy crap because he was spouting off winning ratios of 80-90%

At the time, my winning ratio was 70% and I felt his stats were a bit exaggerated, so I called him out for being full of himself. A short time later, a fellow forum member sent me a PM and and kindly explained his stats were indeed true (but you have to be quick). Afterwards, I set aside my own preconceived notions of what I thought this arrogant SoB was saying and listened to the substance behind the ego. Long story short, even though I am not a member of his premium service, through his countless videos I've been able to gleam many grains of truth. Within TSP we cannot trade within his timeframe, but while there are many You-tubers out there, few offer anything of consequential value, IMHO you'd be served well to be listening to what this guy has to say.

I myself never miss a video, not in the morning, not in the evening and not over the weekend.

I love the soothing, and hypnotic sound of his voice. But for balance, you have to hear from the detractors (and there are plenty). Anyhow, I tend to put more weight on the 1 star ratings. Here's a sample review:

5/24/14
I was a member for 3-years. When I first became a member I thought I had found an awesome service, however I came to see the following. Gareth - when he makes bad calls he never accepts responsibility nor does he mention them, he just goes on talking about good calls that he didn't make. Nick's short term cycles are not bad (by short term I mean over the course of a week or month, because they are low risk trades), but his overall out look on the market has been completely wrong for the past 3 years, he has been talking about the market collapsing and gold taking off. Well if you look at the charts you will see he has been wrong.

InTheMoneyStocks Reviews - 3.8 Stars | SiteJabber

 

[JTH]

I love the soothing, and hypnotic sound of his voice. But for balance, you have to hear from the detractors (and there are plenty). Anyhow, I tend to put more weight on the 1 star ratings. Here's a sample review:

5/24/14
I was a member for 3-years. When I first became a member I thought I had found an awesome service, however I came to see the following. Gareth - when he makes bad calls he never accepts responsibility nor does he mention them, he just goes on talking about good calls that he didn't make. Nick's short term cycles are not bad (by short term I mean over the course of a week or month, because they are low risk trades), but his overall out look on the market has been completely wrong for the past 3 years, he has been talking about the market collapsing and gold taking off. Well if you look at the charts you will see he has been wrong.

InTheMoneyStocks Reviews - 3.8 Stars | SiteJabber

Great stuff, but I don't use his service, so I can't speak to its validity. As for the videos, I enjoy them, and think his overall tone and direction of the markets has been spot on over the past 6 months. He doesn't really make calls on the future price, just evaluates the levels and I think that's one of the more important things to learn how to do when evaluating our entries and exits.

 

[JTH]

Prices were compressed both within the 34-day trading range and the Bollinger Bands. At present, prices are expanding, the Bollinger Bands are expanding, seasonality is our tail-wind and I fully expect to test the top of the rising wedge.

Next target 1925...

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[jkenjohnson]

Somebody kick me in the arse - I missed out on this run up.

 

[JTH]

Somebody kick me in the arse - I missed out on this run up.

You may not get much opportunity to feel bad about the missed gains, several sell signals have and will get triggered today.

 

[berline]

You may not get much opportunity to feel bad about the missed gains, several sell signals have and will get triggered today.

Yes, go on...tell us more

 

[JTH]

Yes, go on...tell us more

OTOH how pissed are people gonna be if the markets close even higher tomorrow...

 

[WorkFE]

markets close even higher tomorrow...

Extremely possible, its a roll of the dice.

 

[Whipsaw]

At least I didn't lose money on the F-Train today (don't ask me how).

WorkFE, love the tag line... I'll be stealing that on occasion

 

[jonfresno]

OTOH how pissed are people gonna be if the markets close even higher tomorrow...

Climbing to the rooftop and ready to jump off... Unreal, the day I decide to jump to G after sticking it out w/ the S fund for two months, it comes to life. Luckily my I fund allocation helped ease the pain with a gain. We'll see what tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow will bring....

 

[amoeba]

Look who's talking

You may not get much opportunity to feel bad about the missed gains, several sell signals have and will get triggered today.

I bailed out - with my best quarter in the last ten (2%+). Dunno if you check the "returns analysis" but you now lead the quarterly return (5.89%). That's good guessing IMO.

This rally could easily go one more day....but my guess is not much more than that; it started earlier than historically for this holiday period.

 

[JTH]

Re: Look who's talking

I bailed out - with my best quarter in the last ten (2%+). Dunno if you check the "returns analysis" but you now lead the quarterly return (5.89%). That's good guessing IMO.

This rally could easily go one more day....but my guess is not much more than that; it started earlier than historically for this holiday period.

Thanks, it's all good, there's still more work ahead, glad to see you've made some money on this last run-up.

 

[JTH]

The laws of linear regression has now synced with the two green-circled bottoming tails, this put resistance on the high-side of the channel at 1918 or .35%

After that, the top of the rising wedge from tomorrow is 1925 or .71%

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[JTH]

Until otherwise proven, the trading range on the Wilshire 4500 is 970-1010

View attachment 28776

 

[ravensfan]

Until otherwise proven, the trading range on the Wilshire 4500 is 970-1010

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JTH,

As I've come to expect, another great chart. Although I am now a premium service member I still value your analysis and check your posts daily. Keep up the great work! It is much appreciated.

 

[JTH]

JTH,

As I've come to expect, another great chart. Although I am now a premium service member I still value your analysis and check your posts daily. Keep up the great work! It is much appreciated.

Thanks buddy

 

[TSPIntel]

JTH, The proof is on the pudding... Your Technical analysis has been proved it works, U R on the top of the food chain... per say... do U have any info explaining your system so U may want to share and I may read about it?

 

[JTH]

JTH, The proof is on the pudding... Your Technical analysis has been proved it works, U R on the top of the food chain... per say... do U have any info explaining your system so U may want to share and I may read about it?

Thank you for the kind comments, I don't use a mechanical system, most everything I do is fly-by-wire. Much is based on synchronicity between the major indexes along side price, volume and time. These processes are in a continuous state of evolution where I am not bound by rules but instead have replaced rules with guidelines. For me, the markets are like a council of advisors, I do my best to listen to their guidance, while at the same time not trying to interject what I think they should do. I identify, understand and accept when I am wrong, having that mindset has helped me tremendously,