JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

For entertainment purposes only

A break of the neckline at A around 6 June shows potential for a 9-10% decline at BC to 890.00

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[JTH]

The real hidden agenda is that JTH wants to give Betula papyrifera an opportunity to catch him on the tracker.

Are you going to sidestep the 20% correction that starts tomorrow?

Now you've gone and done it. I was wondering where that knocking sound was coming from - you've got many new members knees' knocking. I'll be proud to ride any consolidation that comes along because I'm buying something every day with my dollar cost averaging dividends - it's a beautiful things buying assets for the future.

Don't say I didn't warn ya

 

[WorkFE]

I would love to miss any correction but when/if it occurs is tough to predict. I trust intuition/analysis of alot of folks at TSP Talk, JTH being one of them. If by chance, considering I'm all in right now, I get caught on the wrong side of enemy lines in the next few days I do have $5500 in catch-up contribution cash on stand by. Glass half full, never half empty. :nuts:

 

[airlift]

JTH,

I would like to hear your opinion why you think the expected pullback is not happening. Is it, perhaps, The Russian troop pullback by Putin? Any other opinions will be appreciated. Tia

 

[Birchtree]

Allow me a moment to answer - it's all about TINA (there is no alternative) and will remain this way for several years. You'll see internal rotations but no big corrections. Just ride the bull.

 

[JTH]

JTH,

I would like to hear your opinion why you think the expected pullback is not happening. Is it, perhaps, The Russian troop pullback by Putin? Any other opinions will be appreciated. Tia

The pullback has been happening ever since the Bio-Tech bubble popped. You might not be seeing it because money is rotating out of small caps, tech caps, (and other bubbles) into the Large caps. Bonds are not attractive (over priced) otherwise the money wouldn't be rotating into large caps at current levels.

You aren't the only one who is perplexed, this type of price rotation is not the norm.

 

[amoeba]

The pullback has been happening ever since the Bio-Tech bubble popped. You might not be seeing it because money is rotating out of small caps, tech caps, (and other bubbles) into the Large caps. Bonds are not attractive (over priced) otherwise the money wouldn't be rotating into large caps at current levels.

You aren't the only one who is perplexed, this type of price rotation is not the norm.

I don't think it's a rotation; just that S-fund is leading (topped out, decline started) and has more beta; C-fund will track it.

I threw some chips into the F-fund today - again on the heels of JTH's recent move, which have been on spot the last few times. Please be right again.

 

[airlift]

I don't think it's a rotation; just that S-fund is leading (topped out, decline started) and has more beta; C-fund will track it.

I threw some chips into the F-fund today - again on the heels of JTH's recent move, which have been on spot the last few times. Please be right again.

What do we need to see, in order to resolve whether this is a rotation or the S-Fund leading? Quoting JTH, "You aren't the only one who is perplexed, this type of price rotation is not the norm." What is causing the abnormal pattern of behavior?

 

[userque]

What do we need to see, in order to resolve whether this is a rotation or the S-Fund leading? Quoting JTH, "You aren't the only one who is perplexed, this type of price rotation is not the norm." What is causing the abnormal pattern of behavior?

I must start be stating my position that perplexion doesn't necessarily imply abnormality. There.

Off the top of my head, I know of two ways (I'm sure there're more) to do what you are asking about:

1. Premium Trading Platforms. Some (costly?) trading platforms have tools designed to identify or help to identify sector rotations. At least this used to be the case when I used them.

2. Identify indices that correspond to the sectors you are interested in. Using Google Finance (or equivalent), plot these indices, along with the S-Fund underlying, using the comparison graph (uses percentages rather than absolute values)--as many at a time that your brain can visually discriminate. You will look for a proportionally inverse relationship between the underlying and one or more of the sector indices. (In other words, as one goes up, the other goes down.) If you find that, then you may have spotted 'rotation.'

Whether the underlying is leading or lagging may also be evident. (Goes up before the others and vice versa.)

 

[JTH]

Cashin says Draghi threw huge curveball - CNBC

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[airlift]

I must start be stating my position that perplexion doesn't necessarily imply abnormality. There.

Off the top of my head, I know of two ways (I'm sure there're more) to do what you are asking about:

1. Premium Trading Platforms. Some (costly?) trading platforms have tools designed to identify or help to identify sector rotations. At least this used to be the case when I used them.

2. Identify indices that correspond to the sectors you are interested in. Using Google Finance (or equivalent), plot these indices, along with the S-Fund underlying, using the comparison graph (uses percentages rather than absolute values)--as many at a time that your brain can visually discriminate. You will look for a proportionally inverse relationship between the underlying and one or more of the sector indices. (In other words, as one goes up, the other goes down.) If you find that, then you may have spotted 'rotation.'

Whether the underlying is leading or lagging may also be evident. (Goes up before the others and vice versa.)

userque,

This is a well reasoned explanation. I have received the benefits of your experience. I'm certain that many others will appreciate that you have shed light on a complex set of facts that not everyone has worked with. Thank you.

 

[userque]

userque,

This is a well reasoned explanation. I have received the benefits of your experience. I'm certain that many others will appreciate that you have shed light on a complex set of facts that not everyone has worked with. Thank you.

Thanks airlift,

I hope it helps!

Que

 

[JTH]

The pullback has been happening ever since the Bio-Tech bubble popped. You might not be seeing it because money is rotating out of small caps, tech caps, (and other bubbles) into the Large caps. Bonds are not attractive (over priced) otherwise the money wouldn't be rotating into large caps at current levels.

You aren't the only one who is perplexed, this type of price rotation is not the norm.

Until the yield pops, bonds will continue to perform as will the large caps (to some extent.) If we read the news, then we know we are rotating from growth to value stock. Futures have been down rather consistently throughout the night/morning, I'm not going to lie, I love it when there is blood in the streets, so bring on the pain. ask yourself, "Will investors want to be in these markets over the weekend?"

 

[Birchtree]

You rogue - scaring the membership of cherubes to get their knees knocking and running for cover. If you sit tight it won't be long until you are eating hoof dust and being shaded by a Betula papyrifera tree - a 10% correction in the small caps should do it. And here I thought I was the only one that enjoyed pain - no pain no gain.

 

[OBXTrader]

I don't know Birchtree, I think JTH's analysis is great. But, if you read my account talk yesterday, I was like a broken clock (right twice in a day) and called the top and also did my first May IFT into L2050 effective COB today. No marching orders from JTH.

You rogue - scaring the membership of cherubes to get their knees knocking and running for cover. If you sit tight it won't be long until you are eating hoof dust and being shaded by a Betula papyrifera tree - a 10% correction in the small caps should do it. And here I thought I was the only one that enjoyed pain - no pain no gain.

 

[JTH]

Building a Better Moustrap

"The simulation results show that the EDCA strategy reliably outperforms the DCA strategy. It is documented that EDCA nearly always delivers higher dollar-weighted returns, and delivers greater terminal wealth well between 60% and 95% of the time, depending on the particular model specification."

 

[JTH]

The Great Moderation
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"What's the message of the market for you right now?"

"Two messages from the downturn 10%. One is valuations matter, especially for the high beta stocks, and the second is when you come to the mature phase of fed support, which is where we are now, we get into the mature phase of support for the market, it really impacts different segment of the market in different ways, so more generally I think, Bill, the key issue is this market is now settling into the great moderation 2.0."

 

[JTH]

Transports putting in a strong move today

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[Birchtree]

It's early yet - we need more rocket fuel to push way past 7900. If the SPX takes out 1900 then please stand back behind the safety zone because we are going much higher. Thank you mom and pop, come get'em while they are still cheap. TINA is a beautiful concept.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Transports putting in a strong move today

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I am surprised by today's action. Not sure what the cayalyst is?