JTH's Account Talk

[Cactus]

Dip? Looks more like a breakdown to me. Anyways, I don't think Jason catches the falling knife. Now if it comes back to his pivot point before the close there might be interest tomorrow. But do you really want to own this over the weekend? :suspicious:

 

[JTH]

1) The 7-Month AB Trendline has been violated 7 times, yet not closed under this line each of those 7 times

2) On 14-May we met the intersection of the AB & CD trendline, this is one of my pivots

3) The Bollinger Band width is at a 37-bar low, prices are compressing, we are at the same levels as points C & D

Sorry guys I need to clarify some things.

1) Once a trendline gets violated, usually after the 3rd break it gets broken, I expected this trendline to get broken, the fact that it stayed intact 7 times is a rare occurrence

2) The AB & CD pivot is a place I was looking for a breakout/breakdown, I was not picking a direction

3) When prices compress, it usually means we are setting up for a breakout/breakdown

Nope, not going to catch the falling knife, it's better to stay out and let others battle this out...

 

[amoeba]

A few more reasons not to jump right now

Increase in VIX and selling volumes of major ETFs like SPY both very moderate (alot of action in AGG, OTOH). Alot of optimism seems to be holding up stocks. This could be the beginning of something else, or just a blip; hard to tell.

 

[JTH]

Still tracking...

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[JTH]

R2K taps a triple bottom...

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[rktect1]

Is that better than a double tap?

 

[JTH]

Is that better than a double tap?

Difficult for me to say, the first bottom doesn't hold the same significance as the other two. With 2 gaps above, I'd suspect we will fill the first one tomorrow off a bounce. OTOH If the 1082 floor doesn't hold, this would be a fair warning sign of lower prices to come, perhaps triggering another round of sellers. There's also a fair chance we've put in a short-term bottom here.

 

[Khotso]

Sorry guys I need to clarify some things.

1) Once a trendline gets violated, usually after the 3rd break it gets broken, I expected this trendline to get broken, the fact that it stayed intact 7 times is a rare occurrence

2) The AB & CD pivot is a place I was looking for a breakout/breakdown, I was not picking a direction

3) When prices compress, it usually means we are setting up for a breakout/breakdown

Nope, not going to catch the falling knife, it's better to stay out and let others battle this out...

Haha -- but what if you are riding on the falling knife? Didn't youdo that on a big drop a couple years ago J. Any advice/wisdom to share?

 

[Birchtree]

No, it was Birchtree that rode the bear all the way down and happily buying all the while everyone else was loosing their heads. It was definitely a time of courage and faith in our economic system and I was well rewarded for my contrary approach.

 

[JTH]

Haha -- but what if you are riding on the falling knife? Didn't youdo that on a big drop a couple years ago J. Any advice/wisdom to share?

Yea that was me, this time of year in 2012, took a hit, got out and saved an additional 2% loss, but failed to ride the wave up. Still did well that year but definitely could have played it better.

 

[amoeba]

^VIX pattern reversed to under 13 again (I wouldn't consider buying equities under 15, and would like to see 20 before jumping); P/E extended to 17+ on SPY; I continue to say no thank you for right now.

Fridays can be misleading, although the morning volume is pretty good - so there may be some intermediate bottom-fishing going on (the recent IFTs on this forum suggest this as well).

 

[airlift]

This afternoon we rallied to the bottom of the upper gap. Based on technical analysis, what are the most likely probabilities that we might soon close the gap to the upside? Tia.

 

[JTH]

I think you answered your own question the gap filled today

Difficult for me to say, the first bottom doesn't hold the same significance as the other two. With 2 gaps above, I'd suspect ​we will fill the first one tomorrow off a bounce. OTOH If the 1082 floor doesn't hold, this would be a fair warning sign of lower prices to come, perhaps triggering another round of sellers. There's also a fair chance we've put in a short-term bottom here.

This afternoon we rallied to the bottom of the upper gap. Based on technical analysis, what are the most likely probabilities that we might soon close the gap to the upside? Tia.

 

[JTH]

Stocks up...the waves are getting shorter...the Bollinger bands are compressing, is this the beginning of a bear market?

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[MrBowl]

As the S&P heads back up to the upper end of the range there is hardly anyone (outside of Birch) expecting it to break above and continue ascending. At least, in my limited sample I don't see anyone calling for that. Is that an accurate view? Is it actually bullish?

My plan has been to increase my F and/or G holdings soon, but...

 

[JTH]

As the S&P heads back up to the upper end of the range there is hardly anyone (outside of Birch) expecting it to break above and continue ascending. At least, in my limited sample I don't see anyone calling for that. Is that an accurate view? Is it actually bullish?

My plan has been to increase my F and/or G holdings soon, but...

For me, Sentiment is useful up to a certain point but difficult to document so I don't track it.

The S&P 500 is the blue ball

Keep your eyes on the blue ball while we take your money out of small caps & tech. Oh, and we stole your wallet & banged your girlfriend while you weren't looking...

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[Birchtree]

I believe the politically correct term to use is cuckold.

 

[JTH]

As of late, it's been the norm for stocks and bonds to trade inverse to each other, so if this is a rally in the stocks, where's the pullback in bonds? Hourly S&P 500 shows a bit of resistance at currently levels within the white trendline along with the 50% retracement bounce off the previous wave. This is a good place for the next downwave to begin.

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[OBXTrader]

Today, actually bonds traded like I expected in relation to stocks. That said, I did an IFT today into the L Income from the L2050 to book some profits and keep a 20% stock exposure toe in the water in TSP.

As of late, it's been the norm for stocks and bonds to trade inverse to each other, so if this is a rally in the stocks, where's the pullback in bonds? Hourly S&P 500 shows a bit of resistance at currently levels within the white trendline along with the 50% retracement bounce off the previous wave. This is a good place for the next downwave to begin.

View attachment 28704

 

[JTH]

1) A fall to the most dominant E-F 152-day trendline takes us to 1820
2) Bollinger Band 20/2 indicator shows we are at an 80-day low, compression on the S&P 500's Bollinger bands at 3&4 increases potential for a breakout/breakdown
4) The poorly-patterned Ascending Triangle at ABC has rising lows at 1, 2, 3 (upside PO 1863, downside 1803)
5) Over the past 30 days there is a small rising parallel price channel from B-C to 4-5
6) Over the past 30 days the S&P 500 has not closed down more than 2 days in a row

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