JTH's Account Talk

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JTH said:
Sellers will step off this train at 1840
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JTH said:
Buyers stepped in, putting in various tweezers-style candlestick patterns on the daily timeframe. This is usually indicative of a bottom and is confirmed with oversold readings on my hybrid indicators and the Bollinger Bands. Logic would tell us this is where buyers should step in and the markets should resume their uptrend.

Having said that, I will not be making an IFT this week and will project my next IFT will be on Monday of next week.
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JTH said:
Once I go into these markets, my preference to be invested starting out the Month of May, so a little confirmation is warranted, or I'll risk either being stuck, or ejecting early. After the recent downside volatility, a pause day is to be expected. The question then become, will we put in a continuation to the downside, or a reversal to the upside. I'd rather be a day late and right, then trying to time the exact bottom and being wrong.
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JTH said:
I was fairly clueless back then, so it's hard to make a side-by-side comparison with todays action alongside the action from 2007. I will say that many of us tried to catch dead-cat-bounces all the way from 1570 down to 666.79 but failed in many of those attempts.

By the time the March 2009 rally began, many of us (myself included) were too gun shy to hop back on the train.
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JTH said:
Here's your Pre-IFT pep talk

This is not Vegas, what happens to your account stays with your account. Catching a falling knife is for jugglers and day traders, neither of which we are. Ask yourself if you want to jump into a market where only 2 major indexes put in 52-week highs, then put in a reversal, while the other major indexes have been putting in lower highs and lower lows.

Best of trades...Jason[/ATTACH]
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Here's some of my favorite quotes from this month, anyone feel like juggling that knife?

View attachment 28089
 
From the recent 52 week high to today's close, the S&P 500 has pulled back roughly -3.7% but it sure feels a whole lot worse than that. If I had to guess, I'd estimate folks won't want to be invested going into the weekend.
 
No lies, it's ugly out there, a big down day tomorrow increases my likelihood of changing my IFT to Friday (instead on Monday) but it's dependent on my impressions of the price action.

I'm watching the NASDAQ 100 to see if it puts in a 50% retracement in the 3400 area where we have 2 areas of previous support and a minor area of resistance.

View attachment 28098


For the Transports I'm watching for support at the 6-Month trendline

View attachment 28099
 
Alright folks

Please take your eye off that ball we call the S&P 500

The NASDAQ 100, Transports & Wilshire 4500 have all already dropped more than -6% This is happening, the fact that there is a rotation going into the safety plays, is what's been holding up the S&P 500 but it won't last forever.
 
Some things cannot be unseen, do not watch this video, you will regret it...

[video]http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000265989[/video]
 
Nah, I don't believe a word of it. We are in a healthy consolidation and it will be contained. I'll just keep wall flower shopping until I drop.
 
JTH said:
Some things cannot be unseen, do not watch this video, you will regret it...

[video]http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000265989[/video]
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Birchtree said:
Nah, I don't believe a word of it. We are in a healthy consolidation and it will be contained. I'll just keep wall flower shopping until I drop.
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Come one now, the whole point of DCA is get the good prices, you should be wanting this market to tank so you can scoop up the ashes...
 
JTH said:
Who's going in today?
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It seems to me that Fridays tend to reverse the trend of the week if its been a big one up or down. Probably traders squaring up before the weekend. If we bounce today we could see more selling next week IMO. But, I also think it will take a while for us to a solid buy. So, that means the downtrend will slow down or we have some nice bounces occasionally. I just wish I new how to time them.
 
Man I am really thinking of going in today. If I can make the 2% for the month and get out.... I am happy. Yes I would like to be invested going into MAY, but hey 2% is 2%.
 
I've had a chance to review the charts, we do have higher volume we could argue is the sign of a short-term bottom. We are already at levels that look good for a bounce, it's all there for the taking if you want it. I've already made a plan to jump in on Monday, it's a good plan based on past experience we've had in similar situations. In the end, it comes down to what makes you comfortable and accepting what your inner voice is telling you, mine is telling me to wait.

No IFT for me :)
 
JTH said:
I've had a chance to review the charts, we do have higher volume we could argue is the sign of a short-term bottom. We are already at levels that look good for a bounce, it's all there for the taking if you want it. I've already made a plan to jump in on Monday, it's a good plan based on past experience we've had in similar situations. In the end, it comes down to what makes you comfortable and accepting what your inner voice is telling you, mine is telling me to wait.

No IFT for me :)
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Patience is a virtue.
 
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