JTH's Account Talk

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IMHO the 21% correction in October 2011 was the end of the secular bear as it was cast into perdition with a pyroclastic collapse and a new secular bull was born. Saut says we are now only 27 months or so into this cyclical bull inside the new secular bull - we should look forward to many more months of bullish temperment. And possibly decades of secular bull activity regardless of interest rates going up. I still look for double digit gains in 2014.
 
JTH said:
Truth is I'm not, these prices are just not all that appealing to me. There may come a day of reckoning and if I'm fortunate, when this day comes I'll be in a position to capitalize on it. I'm already 78% invested in the IRA, so it's not like I'm not in this market, just not in TSP. I would entertain taking a position under SPX 1810/W4500 980, my preference would be to jump in on a flash crash. I do realize with a 1.41% YTD & AT #560 that I'm underperforming, for some reason I just don't care enough about it to force a trade.


I see you are doing rather well this year with a ,with a 6.27% YTD & AT #58 perhaps I should be following you, where are you looking for an entry?
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I'm trying to figure that out. This year is kinda like last year - may be that buy and hold is the way to go again this year? I should have got in last Friday, but just couldn't do it.
 
jkenjohnson said:
I'm trying to figure that out. This year is kinda like last year - may be that buy and hold is the way to go again this year? I should have got in last Friday, but just couldn't do it.
Click to expand...

The S fund was up 11.46% YTD on March 19th of last year? Unfortunately, last year's success has the potential to hurt a lot of people this year because those same people probably waited for a big pullback last year that never happened and this year they will probably throw in the towel and jump back in at exactly the wrong time. I've seen it over and over again, just like 2008 made those same people wait too long to jump back on the band wagon in 2009.
 
Intrepid_Timer said:
The S fund was up 11.46% YTD on March 19th of last year? Unfortunately, last year's success has the potential to hurt a lot of people this year because those same people probably waited for a big pullback last year that never happened and this year they will probably throw in the towel and jump back in at exactly the wrong time. I've seen it over and over again, just like 2008 made those same people wait too long to jump back on the band wagon in 2009.
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I wonder if those of us on the sidelines waiting for a pullback now, will miss the boat again?
 
JTH said:
Spread the fear


Why it could get even worse for the markets

"[In] 2011, [there] also [was] an erosion in the emerging markets just like we're seeing today with Russia breaking down, Mexico, Brazil, China," says Ross. "It's not pretty out there. Copper is breaking down to a fresh, multiyear low. We're seeing the same type of macro erosion in the back drop that we had that precipitated a 20% pullback in the S&P back in 2011…. That's the cause for concern."
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I don' think the average joe even reads these articles. I think he just follows the herd. Makes it very hard to trade on fundamantals.
 
We all know trendlines don't last forever, going back 186 days, this one has held up rather well. The prices projected within this channel are spaced 11 bars apart from April 1st, 16th and May 1st. As of today's closing price, a drop to the bottom of the trendline would be -5.55% or 100.55 points.

View attachment 27689
 
"Buybacks are likely to remain strong in 2014. Now imagine the melt-up potential of the stock market if th Great Rotation by retail investors from bonds into stocks continues to build momentum."
 
So investors who have missed out on the recent bull run for stocks may find that compelling investment opportunities remain. You want to love markets that are hated. You want to be afraid of markets that are loved - where is the love.
 
Copycat. ;)

Hey, today I reached 30 years in the Federal government. Party at Tsunami's house!
emo26.gif
 
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