JTH's Account Talk

[Cactus]

IFT 100F EoB today

Good Move I think. The Cactus Emotional Indicator was telling me last night: just bag the F Fund and go G. So the Contrarian Cactus Sentiment is to jump in. :blink:

 

[jonfresno]

Good Move I think. The Cactus Emotional Indicator was telling me last night: just bag the F Fund and go G. So the Contrarian Cactus Sentiment is to jump in. :blink:

Starting to sound like George Costanza when he decided everything he did was wrong, so he did the opposite.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

IFT 100F EoB today

That's encouraging... maybe now my F funds will grow...

 

[Whipsaw]

IFT 100F EoB today

11:57 AM.... I think you could have posted a little closer to the deadline! :blink: :toung:

 

[Cactus]

Starting to sound like George Costanza when he decided everything he did was wrong, so he did the opposite.

Ha Ha, I've been there. I actually calculated a hypothetical return for 2011 where I essentially reversed the trades for that year to show my wive that I actually would have lost more. Beware of your emotions -- they are your own worst enemy.

 

[JTH]

Sometimes you have a way of scaring the crap out of me but I'm committed. "I have nothing to fear but fear itself."

Nope, not trying to scare anyone, nor implying stocks are going to pullback, just moving out of the G-Fund into a bit more risk

11:57 AM.... I think you could have posted a little closer to the deadline! :blink: :toung:

I wanted to post earlier, but sometimes that "work" thing gets in the way. Over the past week, I've been watching AGG closely, it's not the trade of preference but given the IFT situation & timeframe I felt it was the best choice going into next week.

 

[JTH]

Market Trend

This week the trending indicators saw modest gains over the previous week.

1) Over the past 4 weeks prices on the S&P 500 were contained within the 1834-1884 2.7% price range
2) Volume on Friday was the 3rd highest within the 187-day channel posted here
3) The previous time Negative Volume was this high (as on Friday) it confirmed the 19-Sep-13 top which saw a 4.82% pullback






1) The percentages for the Russell 2000 are slightly weaker but inline with the S&P 500 (meaning there isn't a strong divergence)

 

[JTH]

Going into this week, the Large Cap C-Fund took 1st place over the 5-day & 1-month timeframe while the Small Cap S-Fund remains the overall winner.

View attachment 27723

 

[Tsunami]

Nope .... but I'm eligible in just 27 months from today, and I don't expect to go more than 30 months beyond that at the most....

Yes!! But can you retire? :cheesy:

 

[JTH]

Slight statistical changes but the overall theme remains unchanged.

 

[bmneveu]

Going into this week, the Large Cap C-Fund took 1st place over the 5-day & 1-month timeframe while the Small Cap S-Fund remains the overall winner.

View attachment 27723

The 5-day I Fund number is off. It's actually +0.14% for the week. The difference from EFA is due to the TSP fund managers counter-balancing from US dollar sell offs, or something like that.

 

[JTH]

The 5-day I Fund number is off. It's actually +0.14% for the week. The difference from EFA is due to the TSP fund managers counter-balancing from US dollar sell offs, or something like that.

Actually, all the data is off by a day, my formulas must have slipped, I'll put in the fix tomorrow, thanks!

 

[JTH]

The 5-day I Fund number is off.

Actually, all the data is off by a day, my formulas must have slipped, I'll put in the fix tomorrow, thanks!

Thanks Bmneveu, here's the updated stats

 

[bmneveu]

Slight statistical changes but the overall theme remains unchanged.

View attachment 27730

View attachment 27731

Is this fairly consistent throughout the year? Dipping on Monday and peaking on Tuesday? That's certainly worth trying to take advantage of.

 

[JTH]

Is this fairly consistent throughout the year? Dipping on Monday and peaking on Tuesday? That's certainly worth trying to take advantage of.

The Stock Trader's Almanac talks about this in more detail. There is no true single answer, it is dependent on the Index, the general direction of the market and whatever the latest money flow trend is. I track the last 10 because it helps to identify trend changes quickly. For as long as we remain in this bull-run I would estimate these stats will remain fairly consistent.

 

[JTH]

Small caps taking the biggest hit today.

Hourly Chart
View attachment 27759

 

[Birchtree]

Bad news is simply an opportunity for us accumulators of wall flowers. A sideways March is purrfect.

 

[JTH]

Bad news is simply an opportunity for us accumulators of wall flowers. A sideways March is purrfect.

I agree, but at these levels nothing is on sale just yet, give me a 5-10% pullback, then we can talk about those wall flowers

 

[bmneveu]

Here's the Monday pullback you mentioned

 

[JTH]

Not much to report, with a 2.6% 1834-1884 price range it's anyone's game until one of these levels is broken...

View attachment 27766