JTH's Account Talk

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All price objectives have been met, we are now in the 1782-1808 bounce zone highlighted in my signature block. This is where it gets fun :)
 
JTH...All price objectives have been met, we are now in the 1782-1808 bounce zone highlighted in my signature block. This is where it gets fun :)
Click to expand...

With Yellen speaking next week, (and I would think she would want to massage the Markets ?) Could 1808-1820 be within reach ??

Or am I just a little toooo giddy with this Market action ??
 
Last edited:
Dutchy said:
With Yellen speaking next week, (and I would think she would want to massage the Markets ?) Could 1808-1820 be within reach ??

Or am I just a little toooo giddy with this Market action ??
Click to expand...

Anything is possible if you can get above the 20/50 SMA bow tie, but until that happens I can't think that high :)


View attachment 27094
 
Dutchy said:
With Yellen speaking next week, (and I would think she would want to massage the Markets ?) Could 1808-1820 be within reach ??

Or am I just a little toooo giddy with this Market action ??
Click to expand...
Myself believes she will say something to please the market. They all do when it's dropping. Unless she gives a hold on tapering, her words won't carry much because she doesn't have a track record yet. JMHO
 
The 1740-1777 Price Target in my signature block executed, we are now within the bounce so I've revised the targets.

You may notice I've drawn in a descending parallel price channel in red, this is where I expect prices to be contained. First stop, if we can close above the red circled 20/50 SMA Bow Tie w/the pink trendline, then the second level to be tested is 1820 (a 76.4% Fibonacci bounce within this wave.) The third test is the upper red trendline, a close above this should take us to the 1850 top where we will close the 1844.91 gap. If you want to look out further, then in my estimation a close above 1850 takes us to 1900-1950, possibly in March-June before the traditional summer pullback.

View attachment 27109

Conversely, a failure to breach 3 closes above the 20/50 SMA or 1820 may either induce a choppy trading range or take us down to 1675-1735, a close below the previous 1740 low should be the trigger to look for.

View attachment 27110
 
shitepoke said:
JTH- are you bailing at 1808 or 1820 targets?
Click to expand...

Good question, the 1st answer is yes because I'd rather exit with a profit, then jump back in later. But once/if we get to those levels I may have a different perspective and decide to play it out, it really just depends on what the price action looks like when we get there.
 
JTH said:
The 1740-1777 Price Target in my signature block executed, we are now within the bounce so I've revised the targets.

You may notice I've drawn in a descending parallel price channel in red, this is where I expect prices to be contained. First stop, if we can close above the red circled 20/50 SMA Bow Tie w/the pink trendline, then the second level to be tested is 1820 (a 76.4% Fibonacci bounce within this wave.) The third test is the upper red trendline, a close above this should take us to the 1850 top where we will close the 1844.91 gap. If you want to look out further, then in my estimation a close above 1850 takes us to 1900-1950, possibly in March-June before the traditional summer pullback.

View attachment 27109

Conversely, a failure to breach 3 closes above the 20/50 SMA or 1820 may either induce a choppy trading range or take us down to 1675-1735, a close below the previous 1740 low should be the trigger to look for.

View attachment 27110
Click to expand...

Minor observation, the S&P 500 is starting to outperform the Wilshire 4500.

View attachment 27116
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
I dunno, R2K is really lagging, you sure you don't want to short a different index??? The small caps being down vs the overall market is just a little disconcerting...
Click to expand...

Large caps are outperforming the small caps, so if we go down, TNA should go down further, therefore TZA. You're right, I could play other ETFs, I happen to watch TNA/TZA closely on a daily basis, so this is where my preference lies.
 
I suspect the large cap outperformance could last for six more years and beyond - the cycle is turning and it's about time. Small caps had a 14 year run and now they need to breath awhile. Holding long 20C/80I for who knows how long.
 
JTH said:
Large caps are outperforming the small caps, so if we go down, TNA should go down further, therefore TZA. You're right, I could play other ETFs, I happen to watch TNA/TZA closely on a daily basis, so this is where my preference lies.
Click to expand...

Hmmm, I guess my logic was that if R2K was already lagging, it wouldn't have as far to go down to hit support where SPY or QQQ (probably highest) might have further to go down... from these levels
 
Not much to report, unanswered questions remain, such as will we get above the green & yellow 20/50 SMA Bow Tie and if so can we turn it into support? The good news is we've retraced more than 50% of the most recent downwave and the Monthly chart is back in the green .16%

View attachment 27139
 
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