JTH's Account Talk

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Don't be trying to scare me. I'm on top of the fence ready to see if things are greener on your side. Thinking 50% to set up for Feb.:confused: Now that should scare you.:D
 
JTH said:
The markets didn't meet my expectations today, prices were flat, while the indexes withheld the answers we were looking for. Perhaps we just needed another flat day, or onlookers are waiting for the great orator to give us a reach-around. Or perhaps the FOMC is just the spark we need to ignite this farse of a rally. As I write this the futures look strong, when the futures are this strong, this early, it's usually not as exciting of a market open as you'd think (or at least that's how I remember it.) Either ways, this hourly charts looks like it's flagging to me, I sure hope I'm wrong and we pierce through Monday's 1796 high.
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Like you, that's something I'd like to statistically analyze.
 
JTH...are you contemplating an ejection move? Or maybe a better question is what is the downside number where you do eject?
 
gronk007 said:
JTH...are you contemplating an ejection move? Or maybe a better question is what is the downside number where you do eject?
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Hi Gronk007 - On post 5419, JTH discussed a similar strategy. Mine has not changed from my post a few days back. See below:

I was on the road yesterday and executed my first IFT for the month into L2030 using my mobile device (was sitting in G-Fund since 12/19/13 as I posted in my account talk). I know L Funds are a lazier pick than your selection. However, I just caught up on your posts and I had same exact game plan, however mine was going to L2050 on dip and eject on up.

I will give a hat tip to you, as I am not bright enough yet to have thought of that completely on my own. If you look at an earlier post of mine from way back, I think 1808 must have stuck in my head!



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Originally Posted by JTH
My 1796-1808 price target (for all intensive purposes) has been met. We may go lower, but before I call a lower target, I'll need to judge the bounce. I'm going in with my first IFT this year, a 66% allocation into the C-Fund, from there I'll either eject on the upside bounce, or buy more on the extended dip, then eject on the bounce. I chose the C-Fund over the S-Fund because I believe it has better valuation (as you can see from the Fib levels I've outlined in the pictures below. Best of luck...

IFT EoB today 34G/66C

Attachment 26840

Attachment 26841

Attachment 26842



​
 
I wanted to make an entry today, but the price action isn't enough to compel me to throw the other 34% in, perhaps tomorrow (since I like to start off the month invested.)
 
JTH said:
I wanted to make an entry today, but the price action isn't enough to compel me to throw the other 34% in, perhaps tomorrow (since I like to start off the month invested.)
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You have a way of making me feel better about my decision. May the Fed make you some money today.
 
Bquat said:
You have a way of making me feel better about my decision. May the Fed make you some money today.
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Well, I wish I could make myself feel better, although I'm glad I've been following my gut instincts, it's been serving me well. Markets couldn't muster a gain, a low base/flag is a pause before the next leg down. I'll have to re-adjust the potential bounce target since we pushed lower today. :suspicious:
 
JT, once again thanks for the short term update. I expected the market to react like this if the Fed continued reducing their bond exposure; however, I didn't think it would be announced today. I'll take the bounce to your short term target and try to reposition myself for the next trade. As we know, the market is a moving target and reacts to news that is beyound our control. I do have a feeling since the Fed decided to reduce the bond exposure by another 10 B that we might get a good GDP number tomorrow to support their decision. If not, then I expect more downside.
 
rspring said:
JT, once again thanks for the short term update. I expected the market to react like this if the Fed continued reducing their bond exposure; however, I didn't think it would be announced today. I'll take the bounce to your short term target and try to reposition myself for the next trade. As we know, the market is a moving target and reacts to news that is beyound our control. I do have a feeling since the Fed decided to reduce the bond exposure by another 10 B that we might get a good GDP number tomorrow to support their decision. If not, then I expect more downside.
Click to expand...

Since a bounce hasn't materialized, I'm in the same camp, more inclined to look for the downside.

View attachment 26938
 
We need one of those flush-the-toliet bottoms, where the house gets flooded and people are panicing in the streets.
 
JTH said:
We need one of those flush-the-toliet bottoms, where the house gets flooded and people are panicing in the streets.
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I've experienced many of those; however, they haven't happened much in this bull market. Things have calmed down in Turkey's markets and if we hold or continue higher today, I think we will reach your short term target early next week. Then we can re-evaluate things. I guess we all have a decision to make. I'm still in the positive for Jan. and want to keep it.:)
 
If futures are any indication, we may be getting that flush we've been talking about. Somebody jiggle the handle! :nuts:
 
Look at it as a buying opportunity. US is the best place to invest in stocks. Currently there is more risk being invested in the emerging markets.
 
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