JTH's Account Talk

[Bquat]

A poor performing month is always better than a losing month. I'm at, 0.10 green.

 

[rspring]

JTH, I am greatful for you and the others that share your charts and information with those of us that are forced to play by the TSP guidelines. I personally use your information as a guide not an exact target. Please keep us informed. Do you feel today we might have topped short term and will reach or breach the SPX 1808 target? I went 100% G today, however a couple day's ago when we were closer to your down side target, I decided to stay in the market using the 1808 target as a stop loss if we fell below that range. Thanks

 

[JTH]

JTH, I am greatful for you and the others that share your charts and information with those of us that are forced to play by the TSP guidelines. I personally use your information as a guide not an exact target. Please keep us informed. Do you feel today we might have topped short term and will reach or breach the SPX 1808 target? I went 100% G today, however a couple day's ago when we were closer to your down side target, I decided to stay in the market using the 1808 target as a stop loss if we fell below that range. Thanks

Thank you for the kind words, I am not yet ready to change the 1808 price target (although today's action moved it up to 1810.) I'll wait for confirmation from today's action and take it from there.

 

[EricDeLee]

A poor performing month is always better than a losing month. I'm at, 0.10 green.

Isn't green the favorite color here? As long as we are green, chalk it up as a win and add it to next month's win... And repeat.

 

[JTH]

I had a dream last night that I walked down the street knocking on my neighbor's doors asking them if the belong to TSP Talk. The weird thing is that several of them said yes and some of them lived next door. Note to self: Stop adding jalapenos to your evening salad...

 

[jonfresno]

I had a dream last night that I walked down the street knocking on my neighbor's doors asking them if the belong to TSP Talk. The weird thing is that several of them said yes and some of them lived next door. Note to self: Stop adding jalapenos to your evening salad...

So that was you who woke us up. Bring over a six pack next time!

 

[JTH]

As I proved in 2013, a 72% winning ratio doesn't mean squat, if you don't follow-up it up with sound fiscal discipline.

This year I'll be focusing the ROTH on fewer positions with a DCA style approach. The goals are to manage no more than 3 stocks with no more than 3 positions in each stock. Within this criteria, I'll seek to take no more than a 10% loss (over the entire 3 positions within a stock) and look to take profits, with a trailing stop beyond the 15% mark.

Based on my calculations, within these parameters (trading cost included) the trades can be profitable so long as I'm right 60% of the time. I think I have the trading part down, this is where the money management portion gets tested.

As much time as we spend talking about our trades, it amazes me how little time we talk about the money management portion...

 

[JTH]

From 14 January 2014

Limit Order Executed - ALU @ 4.41

View attachment 26676

Second limit order executed - ALU @ 4.25

View attachment 26729

 

[JTH]

I'll point out the same thing ITMS pointed out in his video today.

The 31 January high of 1849.44 has been breached, but we've not had confirmation, it has failed 3 times on the 15 minute charts.

View attachment 26734


Here's a closeup
View attachment 26735


@ :50 seconds

 

[JTH]

December 31st?

Yea, it's a typo

 

[JTH]

Good morning

I have a multitiude of limit orders just waiting to get filled.

Picked up GE at 26.96

View attachment 26656

This morning GE gaped down below the 50 SMA.

2nd limit order for GE executed @ 26.48

View attachment 26741

 

[JTH]

From 14 January 2014

Second limit order executed - ALU @ 4.25

View attachment 26729

Third limit order executed - ALU @ 4.15

View attachment 26742

 

[Birchtree]

I must say I admire your strategy with ALU - historically you have not enjoyed absorbing pain. Just think how many shares you can accumulate as ALU drifts down to $3.25.

 

[JTH]

I must say I admire your strategy with ALU - historically you have not enjoyed absorbing pain. Just think how many shares you can accumulate as ALU drifts down to $3.25.

Thank you my friend, but I do hope you are wrong on that 3.25, my stop is set at 3.95 or -10%

You are right, I do not like absorbing pain, but I do like making decisions while the market is closed, and sticking by them.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Thank you my friend, but I do hope you are wrong on that 3.25, my stop is set at 3.95 or -10%

You are right, I do not like absorbing pain, but I do like making decisions while the market is closed, and sticking by them.

Been watching ALU for quite some time. Looks like we're finally getting a decent pullback. Since bottoming last spring, it's rarely gone below the 50 day. Now that we're below, the only question is... will it bounce again.

I'll keep my eyes peeled. Good luck to you on this trade.

 

[JTH]

Been watching ALU for quite some time. Looks like we're finally getting a decent pullback. Since bottoming last spring, it's rarely gone below the 50 day. Now that we're below, the only question is... will it bounce again.

I'll keep my eyes peeled. Good luck to you on this trade.

Thank you, I did want to get into this thing the day prior at the bottom, but it gapped up on me, forcing me to chase it higher (to follow the buy signal I had.) This stock is definitly going to test my resolve...

 

[JTH]

Hard to be impressed with today's market action...

Hourly chart showing the (yet again) failed breach of the 1850 level.

View attachment 26776

 

[Birchtree]

This market may be trying to head fake the technicians.

 

[JTH]

Looks like a classic Middle Finger Formation, based on this data I'd expect an execution on or about 22 Jan. Estimated Upside PO 1870-1885, downside 1800-1820

View attachment 26782

 

[Cactus]

Also, some "middle finger" formations I've seen lead to a topping-like pattern...then a sharp drop. What do you think?

That's how I understood it. Sort of appropriately named, don't you think?