JTH's Account Talk

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JTH said:
...and to realize the majority of investors (our Auto Tracker included) are underperforming the benchmark S&P 500.
To put some perspective on this, of there are 787 Auto Tracker users who started on 1/1/2013 of those, only 55 are outperforming the S&P 500. That's only 7% and I would wager there's broad underperformance among hedge fund managers too.
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Starting out in 2013, I planned to stay 100% in equities all year. But sometimes the charts looked TOO ripe, so I foolishly backed out. Even so, I am having a great year...in fact most of the autotrackers are doing well this year. You have to go all the way down to #1019 to find ANYONE with a negative return for the year (apologies to amoeba, NNUUT, et al). And the yearly returns for S, C, and I are all in the top 232 with a minimum of 20% return. (S is #3 with over 34%!!) :nuts:

So what about 2014? For me, I am going to try harder to stay in equities, and ride this bull till it dies!! :D
 
seasonally, if we were to reach 1725 it would be next week. I hope it does because it look a little over extended.
 
I suspect the only thing that will corral this bull is when the Fed funds rate tips over 5% and that is many years away from today. The gains from here may come hard and fast as mom and pop capitulate - get me in at any price. I hope to be buying all the way to SPX 2,000 and beyond.
 
law87 said:
seasonally, if we were to reach 1725 it would be next week. I hope it does because it look a little over extended.
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There would have to be a reason to sell, and "seasonally" (as in seasonal patterns), is not a reason - "little overextended" - isn't a reason either; it would have to be "alot", which it isn't.

Any dips (which I wouldn't expect anyways) will be shallow and bought into.
 
Seasonally wasn't the word I want to use, the upcoming week out of the month is what I wanted to say. Seasonally, its always bullish this time of year.

we went 125 points in the SPX in a span of 30-45 days, RSI currently at 65 and every time it goes over 70 there is a pull back. So yes I think we are a little over extended, but I'm not a chart expert that's why I'm checking out JTH thread. If you have any smart input I welcome it, otherwise I dont want to look at another Birchtree post, its pretty much boring and unwanted.
 
law87 said:
Seasonally wasn't the word I want to use, the upcoming week out of the month is what I wanted to say. Seasonally, its always bullish this time of year.

we went 125 points in the SPX in a span of 30-45 days, RSI currently at 65 and every time it goes over 70 there is a pull back. So yes I think we are a little over extended, but I'm not a chart expert that's why I'm checking out JTH thread. If you have any smart input I welcome it, otherwise I dont want to look at another Birchtree post, its pretty much boring and unwanted.
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I am bullish. Seasonal(y) is used here, if I may, in reference to the chart Tom posted for the days surrounding Thanksgiving. The Monday after Thanksgiving is usually down. That's all we're referring to, and it's a play some of us are making since we can get out at the end of the month and right back in for Tuesday. It's a calculated guess which will likely be a wash, I'm guessing. What the heck. Every now and then go for the long bomb (football term).

Looking at the seasonal chart, for the month of December the first two weeks show some unevenness. The last two weeks are productive. After Monday I'm all in again, thinking this year, at this climate for stocks, boom, December is a big month to cap off a big year and setting us up for a big year in 2014.

BTW, I'll look at any Birchtree post anytime. His comments appear on these pages with positive information that I now use. Only those that have not had a productive year, to the degree they desired, are not in form to benefit from his commentary. I think you really do like, and respect his comments. Maybe you mean to say that they are posted commonly, and usually worth a skim through at least.
 
JimmyJoe said:
I am bullish. Seasonal(y) is used here, if I may, in reference to the chart Tom posted for the days surrounding Thanksgiving. The Monday after Thanksgiving is usually down. That's all we're referring to, and it's a play some of us are making since we can get out at the end of the month and right back in for Tuesday. It's a calculated guess which will likely be a wash, I'm guessing. What the heck. Every now and then go for the long bomb (football term).

Looking at the seasonal chart, for the month of December the first two weeks show some unevenness. The last two weeks are productive. After Monday I'm all in again, thinking this year, at this climate for stocks, boom, December is a big month to cap off a big year and setting us up for a big year in 2014.

BTW, I'll look at any Birchtree post anytime. His comments appear on these pages with positive information that I now use. Only those that have not had a productive year, to the degree they desired, are not in form to benefit from his commentary. I think you really do like, and respect his comments. Maybe you mean to say that they are posted commonly, and usually worth a skim through at least.
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1125130222g.jpg

thats the reason why I said if we were to go down, it will be next week and hopefully it will be down to 1725 level.
 
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I am concerned, I don't like it when the month starts off in the red. Many hourly trendlines across the indexes, etfs, and stocks got violated. Having said that, I must say that I'm in a slump, my performance in both TSP and IRA were poor in November.
 
JTH said:
I am concerned, I don't like it when the month starts off in the red. Many hourly trendlines across the indexes, etfs, and stocks got violated. Having said that, I must say that I'm in a slump, my performance in both TSP and IRA were poor in November.
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It will probably go back up 200 points tomorrow, if not today.
 
Good morning

I thought about Birchtree when I saw this video last night.

[video]http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000223296[/video]
 
The market is presently discounting the necessary taper - there will likely be no immediate impact on the market.
 
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