JTH's Account Talk

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Birchtree said:
In November 2012 my oceanic took in a gain of +$48K - that's peanuts to what will be gained this time around for November. November has the potential to be explosive - I know mom and pop are getting anxious and need relief for panic capitulation on the buy side. And then don't forget the great rotation out of more bonds. The stars are aligned. It is simply unreasonable to think we are about to embark on a new cyclical bear market especially given the immense amount of investable capital remaining on the sidelines and the overall decent valuations. To quote Hillary Clintion: it takes a global village to feed a wanton bull market.
Click to expand...

That's all fine and dandy as long as we get a nice 10% correction...
 
Here are the Monthly stats. Going back 50 years we can see the average percentile gains put September in the bottom. From there, we traditionally stair-step up into January, step down in February, step back up into April, then step back down into September.

View attachment 25744

View attachment 25743
 
Alright, I've spent the better part of this weekend updating stats/indicators and evaluating trades, where the were/are and where I want them to be. The bad news is that I'm behind from where I set my goals at the beginning of 2013, the good news is that I'll be rotating out of my job this year and this should free up more time for me to focus on trading. I should also add that the 3 primary systems I have in place have been accurate, any trading issues aren't with the systems they are with the user's lack of commitment and discipline with patience & positions sizing. :)

If you look at the signature block below you will see my TSP/ROTH IRA trades, positions, gains/loss, along with the S&P 500's historical performance. I've categorized the stats from short-term to long-term so regardless of your trading style, this should give all forum members viable data to work with. I will make an attempt to update the stats the weekend prior to the beginning of the next month.

Take care...Jason
 
Jason, as always I thank you for your willingness to share your thoughts and valuable information to others.:D
 
Echo Bquat's comments...I always appreciate your posts and appreciate your insights. Big thanks from all of us for your inputs...
 
JTH said:
Alright, I've spent the better part of this weekend updating stats/indicators and evaluating trades, where the were/are and where I want them to be. The bad news is that I'm behind from where I set my goals at the beginning of 2013, the good news is that I'll be rotating out of my job this year and this should free up more time for me to focus on trading.
Take care...Jason
Click to expand...
Gratz, I hope your new job is what you want!
 
Not much to report tonight. Some stocks are pulling back while others are trading flat, IMHO we are not extremely overbought, so there is more room to the upside (but not much.) Shown below is the Monthly S&P 500 channel going back to the March 2009 bottom. For October the top of the channel sits just under 1775.

View attachment 25760
 
JTH said:
...IMHO we are not extremely overbought, so there is more room to the upside (but not much.) Shown below is the Monthly S&P 500 channel going back to the March 2009 bottom. For October the top of the channel sits just under 1775.

View attachment 25760
Click to expand...

All year long, S has been outperforming C. Recently however, S has been flat to slightly down while C continues on an upward trend. I looked at the stockcharts.com $emw chart (not sure how to post it :( ) and it looks pretty toppy...ready for a downturn. Any thougts?
 
uscfanhawaii said:
All year long, S has been outperforming C. Recently however, S has been flat to slightly down while C continues on an upward trend. I looked at the stockcharts.com $emw chart (not sure how to post it :( ) and it looks pretty toppy...ready for a downturn. Any thougts?
Click to expand...

It's not what I would call a normal occurrence, over the last 5 days the S&P 100 large caps have been the leaders. I've also noticed this same occurrence on one of the previous waves (although I don't remember the outcome.) In addition, the Transports haven't led as much this year as previous years. In regards to your question, my indicators have weakened while prices remain firm, I see this consolidation period as the market's way of taking a break (perhaps instead of pulling back.) IMHO The longer the consolidation the bigger the potential for a sizable breakout, as to the direction, I can only speculate it will be to the upside.

5-day Price Performance of S&P 100 vs. 400 vs. 600
View attachment 25764

Watching the dollar, it that a reversal?

View attachment 25765
 
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