JTH's Account Talk

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JTH said:
This advise is for premium service subscribers (all others disregard, you don't need the help.)

The downtrend has officially ended, the September bottom is in, the uptrend will begin. When the 1652 shelf holds the test on Monday-Tuesday, we will close the week out 1675-1685QUOTE]

I meant to go into this lastnight but forgot. On the 30 minute/hourly charts we have the unfilled gap above and the new unfilled gap below. The markets should reverse on whichever gap gets filled first, then fill the gap in the opposite direction. The price objectives for the week have already been met.
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JTH said:
This could be the pullback, there are three items of interest I'd like to point out.

#1 We put in a small but noticeable double top @ 1698.78/1698.38.

#2 As of now, 1684 is the key pivot, we can see we've bounced off this level 3 times and are presently working through this level. A close below 1684 increases potential to trigger a sell off.

#3 We have 4 unfilled gaps, a 50% retracement of this upwave would fill all 4 gaps. For me, this increases the potential for a 50% retracement down to the 1630 level.
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As stated on 24 July, 1684 continues to be the key pivot. We've priced in the fact we aren't going to war, now we need to price in Russia's feet dragging, this should coincide with seasonality. I see signs that a September top is near, but the timing is off, which leads me to believe we have some wall-of-worry to climb. My timing models suggest a sell-off in early October. Fact is I have too much to say, too much data to work with, I've been right all year, but being right and playing it right are two different things.

For premium service subscribers, I suggest you take some gains off the table, look for a dip to jump back in, then fade the rally, be prepared for a strong October sell-off.

View attachment 25204
 
JTH said:
The first half of the month is stronger than the second half, based on seasonality, I'd expect a turn date 16-20 Sep (FOMC/Triple Witching)
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JTH said:
As stated on 24 July, 1684 continues to be the key pivot. We've priced in the fact we aren't going to war, now we need to price in Russia's feet dragging, this should coincide with seasonality. I see signs that a September top is near, but the timing is off, which leads me to believe we have some wall-of-worry to climb. My timing models suggest a sell-off in early October. Fact is I have too much to say, too much data to work with, I've been right all year, but being right and playing it right are two different things.

For premium service subscribers, I suggest you take some gains off the table, look for a dip to jump back in, then fade the rally, be prepared for a strong October sell-off.
Click to expand...

Quick Updates: Moved the Fibonacci lines to reflect the new upwave, we have 3 gaps below us, I see definitive signs a top is in, this should coincide with Friday's Triple Witching. We know the last 2 weeks of September are the weaker of the 4, if you've made some decent gains, you may want to take some off the table.

View attachment 25299
 
Since the January 2013 50/200 SMA Death Cross, it's been a rough year for AGG. This is the first 3 days we've seen above the 50 MA in 93 days. Caution should be warranted as we are at the top of a descending parallel price channel.

View attachment 25322
 
JTH said:
As stated on 24 July, 1684 continues to be the key pivot. We've priced in the fact we aren't going to war, now we need to price in Russia's feet dragging, this should coincide with seasonality. I see signs that a September top is near, but the timing is off, which leads me to believe we have some wall-of-worry to climb. My timing models suggest a sell-off in early October. Fact is I have too much to say, too much data to work with, I've been right all year, but being right and playing it right are two different things.

For premium service subscribers, I suggest you take some gains off the table, look for a dip to jump back in, then fade the rally, be prepared for a strong October sell-off.
Click to expand...

Over the next 6 trading days, within the ascending parallel price channel, a 6-day pullback could take us anywhere from 1684-1700. If this were to happen, then my analysis of a early October pullback may get taken off the table.

View attachment 25323
 
Not being a forecaster or knowing all that much about technical analysts but I don't feel that 1650 is out of bounds. Only based on the two open gaps and a few articles I've read.

What is your chances we break below 1685 come October sell off?
 
rktect1 said:
What is your chances we break below 1685 come October sell off?
Click to expand...

I don't have odds on a market decline, it really just depends on how this market decides to unfold. We could easily be pricing in October as we speak, which would mean we could see an upside reversal in October.
 
I would love to see all three filled in quick order. Oh how that would make life much easier.
 
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