JTH's Account Talk

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Cactus said:
Yeah, but the month is young yet -- only 3 trading days old. That's like worrying about your Tracker position on Jan 3. One day can change this completely and having seen your past trades I'm sure it will.
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Never mind me, I'm just wallowing in my own self-pity, a girl's gotta have a good cry every now and then :D
 
jkenjohnson said:
It's too soon to tell, but TZA may backfire on us?
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My TZA position is still well within striking distance of the profit zone, this market has been very impressive, but even with these conditions I think TZA has held up rather well. I'm seeing signs that a top is near, I'm a patient man, I'm getting my fork ready for some Turkey :)
 
JTH said:
My TZA position is still well within striking distance of the profit zone, this market has been very impressive, but even with these conditions I think TZA has held up rather well. I'm seeing signs that a top is near, I'm a patient man, I'm getting my fork ready for some Turkey :)
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Do you have a stop on TZA?
 
JTH said:
Hypothetical Projection: Using existing trendlines and Fibonacci as a projection tool, this is a Head & Shoulders taking us to 1650, 1560, 1610, 1580, then ultimately 1500 by August. That would be a 3.3% climb to the upside with an overall -10% decline to the downside.

View attachment 23607
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Originally posted on 1 May: Even if you post a projection that ends up being correct, is it worse to be wrong, or worse to be right but still be wrong when you didn't do anything to capitalize on it?

View attachment 23698
 
Im hoping your right and we drop.

then again, i have more money fully invested in my vanguard account, so..... Maybe i just want a flat top
 
I honestly believe we are within 1-2 days of a top or a pause. In situations like this, the market doesn't always pull back, sometimes it just floats sideways, gathering momentum while giving the indicators time to catch up, thereby taking us out of an overbought condition. Some folks might think I'm crazy for not being in this market, I'm not crazy, just wrong.

As a minor word of caution, price is 2.98% above it's 20SMA, going back to 1953 this is in the top 10 percentile and sometimes marks a short-term top.

In addition, the 5-day price performance of Day-6 (this last Wednesday) is also in the top 10 percentile. Going back to 1953, for all months of May, this Day-6 ranks as the 3rd best 5-day price performance. Of the top six Day-6, 5-day price performances, only May of 1973 closed the month down.

Also, for the second day in a row price has closed at 100% of the 64/128/256 day high/low range, going back to December 2003, this has not happened more than 2 days in a row.

I have another system called the Quadracycle that measures overbought/oversold conditions (only going back 2 years) of the 6 previous occasions with a 94 rating or higher, 2 of them marked a top.

However, while we may appear to be overbought in the short-term, in the long-term we are anything but. Price is only 11.22% above its 200SMA, this is in the top 15 percentile, which shows we still have room overhead. I have another very reliable long-term system called Tri-X that has not triggered a sell and shows the potential for more room to the upside. So while we may be overdue for a pullback, I am not seeing definitive signs that would have me advise a long-term investor to step to the sidelines.

So if you are in, I'd stay in, the only reason I'm out is because I'm looking to get back in, but I am willing to wait for a better opportunity, one I might no get. :(
 
JTH, anybody that takes the time to help out this much all the time deserves prop's...thanx for what you do...
 
It's amazing the market simply won't pull back and continues to grind upward leaving no one a chance to get in cheap. Hedge funds are on the move.
 
JTH said:
I honestly believe we are within 1-2 days of a top or a pause. In situations like this, the market doesn't always pull back, sometimes it just floats sideways, gathering momentum while giving the indicators time to catch up, thereby taking us out of an overbought condition. Some folks might think I'm crazy for not being in this market, I'm not crazy, just wrong.

As a minor word of caution, price is 2.98% above it's 20SMA, going back to 1953 this is in the top 10 percentile and sometimes marks a short-term top.

In addition, the 5-day price performance of Day-6 (this last Wednesday) is also in the top 10 percentile. Going back to 1953, for all months of May, this Day-6 ranks as the 3rd best 5-day price performance. Of the top six Day-6, 5-day price performances, only May of 1973 closed the month down.

Also, for the second day in a row price has closed at 100% of the 64/128/256 day high/low range, going back to December 2003, this has not happened more than 2 days in a row.

I have another system called the Quadracycle that measures overbought/oversold conditions (only going back 2 years) of the 6 previous occasions with a 94 rating or higher, 2 of them marked a top.

However, while we may appear to be overbought in the short-term, in the long-term we are anything but. Price is only 11.22% above its 200SMA, this is in the top 15 percentile, which shows we still have room overhead. I have another very reliable long-term system called Tri-X that has not triggered a sell and shows the potential for more room to the upside. So while we may be overdue for a pullback, I am not seeing definitive signs that would have me advise a long-term investor to step to the sidelines.

So if you are in, I'd stay in, the only reason I'm out is because I'm looking to get back in, but I am willing to wait for a better opportunity, one I might no get. :(
Click to expand...

I'm beginning to think there is nothing that will stop this run. It will have to be some kind of big news event.
 
During bull markets, there are virtually no indicators/oscillators that can reliably identify price tops. This market can basically absorb almost any surprise that may come about because of positive internal momentum.
 
It's different from the ones Tom posts in that his show the percentage of times the close is up (green) or down (red), with the black line showing the average return. Yours shows not the percentage of times the close is up or down, but rather the average return when the close is up (green bar) and the average return when the close is down (red bar), with the yellow line representing the combined average of the two. Right?
 
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