JTH's Account Talk

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Nope, getting back in today would clearly not be getting back in under my last exit.
 
Just for the record, today's opening really pisses me off, I do not agree with this price action, it is counter-trend to the natural order of things, but the market wants what the market wants...

View attachment 23630
 
JTH said:
Just for the record, today's opening really pisses me off, I do not agree with this price action, it is counter-trend to the natural order of things, but the market wants what the market wants...

View attachment 23630
Click to expand...
Yeah I was looking for a dip. right shoulder at least. I'm 180 now on what I think about this market. Well it could of been worse I could of been in and then it went 180.:confused: and :embarrest:.
 
It's a wonderful buying stampede. Money has been rotating internally and not leaving the market and now comes fresh dollars or is it yen.
 
Birchtree said:
JTH,

I'll be drafting your bumper before you realize it - thanx for the opportunity.
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Talking about bumpers. I used to be a bumper car but I went the wrong direction 4 times and now I'm a little square piece of steel in the pond.:D
 
JTH said:
Nope, getting back in today would clearly not be getting back in under my last exit.
Click to expand...
So will you look to get in around mid-May if it comes down enough?

Again heard yesterday that analyst think this market will hit 1700 and even a bit higher by year's end, Some throwing around figures of 1750 for S&P and indicating good exit at 1720. Seems hard to believe. But wow! seems nothing is shaking market... Even with that large few minute drop when fake news of Obama being injured came in, it shows just a shock. If something bad happened still do not believe the market would back off for more than a few days and just serves to provide buy in opportunity. Seems like slow growth economy is just creating a steady bull market and as long as we keep printing money until economy is better grounded..all should be good.
 
I'm liking to compare this market to the 1982 recovery, which initiated a 20 year bull market. Yes we are in the early stages of a mega trend secular bull market that will last decades - history does rhyme. Buying stocks on faith, while not risk-free, is not altogether irrational, since stock prices are built on the future, not the past. Even after a 139% rise, many investors still on the sidelines are reluctant to jump in now for fear of getting back in at yet another top. Only the courageous will make money with this bull. The market is currently discounting better times ahead.
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
So will you look to get in around mid-May if it comes down enough?
Click to expand...

More often then not I've had opportunities to get in at lower prices, sometimes it doesn't happen and when that's the case, I'm always prepared to buy back in at higher prices if needed. When it comes to timing the market, you can be wrong, but it doesn't mean you did anything wrong.

DreamboatAnnie said:
Again heard yesterday that analyst think this market will hit 1700 and even a bit higher by year's end,
Click to expand...

I would heed caution with what you hear, analyst have an agenda, in this case that agenda is to get you invested while they are getting out. I pay the majority of them no attention because very few are ever right, of the few that are credible, it still doesn't carry any weight with how I manage my positions. The majority of analyst did not beat the S&P 500 last year “In 2012, 39% of managers beat the S&P 500.
 
I believe I will try to look at market broadly (several year trend) plus my overall sentiment plus Bollinger bands once I have chance to learn more about them. So far see them used for specific stocks but have seen some based on SPYDER. Trying to make connection of bands to Dow Or S&P. thanks for your comments . In past many years I have left money in Sand C without too much movement but since seeing this sight I see that a little more short time investing and paying attention might be a good thing. Just don't want to start doing that without some homework.
 
I read very few analyst predictions these days. But I am aware of some professionals who do believe the S&P can hit as much as 1,800 by the end of the year. Regardless of what they think though, let me say that I always make my trading/investing decisions around technical analysis and sentiment. But I can certainly connect some dots from a sentiment perspective that support price hitting much higher levels by year's end. That's not to say we won't hit some air pockets, because we will, but from a sentiment perspective, one can make an argument that a longer term top is at least months away and perhaps much longer. And even while there's analysts who are very bullish, we can't ignore the fact that there always those on the bearish side too. So it's very unlikely that any one analyst can use an ulterior motive effectively. The picture is much bigger than that.

I like the link that 39% of managers beat the S&P 500 in 2012. Our sentiment survey is better than that. :cool:
 
JTH, what does your last chart posted (had downward implications) look like after the two up days in a row ? hanx for your efforts...
 
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