JTH's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

FAB1,

Now you can really start worrying about that infamous 10% correction that will blind side us all. But if it comes from 1000 Dow points higher, that'll be welcomed.

 

[JTH]

Good job changing your bias when the markets changed. Like we have said before it doesn't pay to be married to a position.

Thanks, I truly do believe those who attempt to impose their will upon the markets, lose the most money.

 

[JimmyJoe]

FAB1,

Now you can really start worrying about that infamous 10% correction that will blind side us all. But if it comes from 1000 Dow points higher, that'll be welcomed.

What'll be more welcomed will be a buying spree throughout this year. 1585 intraday. Can you believe it? Yea. I did, I can, and I will believe a 1700 SPX by the end of this year.

 

[Birchtree]

With the advent of the Bank of Japan QE we could see a much higher SPX close by year end - I've seen a number of 2000.

 

[rspring]

JTH, If I had Birches money I would probably share his enthusiasm ! Where do you think we trade from here? 1620 on the S&P ?

 

[JTH]

Sorry my friend, I've been nauseous all day, unable to enjoy today's market action. I'm hopping I'll feel better tonight.

 

[rspring]

Hope you feel better soon.

 

[wavecoder]

Sorry my friend, I've been nauseous all day, unable to enjoy today's market action. I'm hopping I'll feel better tonight.

sucks man, get better. i been fighting bronchitis for the past week so i feel your pain. can't wait to get back in the gym or surf

 

[JTH]

Thanks guys, just an FYI, in the ROTH IRA, just sold STSI, it was an impulse trade where the position was too large, bought at 1.39, sold at 1.49 I'm slowly fading this rally.

 

[FAB1]

FAB1,

Now you can really start worrying about that infamous 10% correction that will blind side us all. But if it comes from 1000 Dow points higher, that'll be welcomed.

Ah the joys of timing the market. I wish ( do too much of that) I had become an employee at a younger age. of course until I came here I was a total dolt concerning stocks and the potential of my tsp. Now I am a quasi-dolt and maybe improving!

 

[Mcqlives]

OK JTH and Mr. "quasi-dolt". What's your pick? Large or small caps for the rest of the year?

And, JTH, I hope you feel better soon! Probably the meds causing the nausea>

 

[JimmyJoe]

Ah the joys of timing the market. I wish ( do too much of that) I had become an employee at a younger age. of course until I came here I was a total dolt concerning stocks and the potential of my tsp. Now I am a quasi-dolt and maybe improving!

When one loses their a$$ one becomes stronger about their money in stocks, 'twas my case. I know you can go either way with this but I still have nothing to lose so I'm not since February, generally, been into bonds or the G fund. I see older, experienced talking heads warn us of giddiness about the market and say be cautious. Well maybe their time has come to move aside. Yes I'm 60 but I am a vegetarian and therefore feel like I'm 20, after overcoming very bad health problems. I'm using vitamins, supplements, drink only water, and eating no processed foods etc. I know what youth feels now, and it feels like a stock market that defies the charts, the think tanks, and the spread sheets. This is a new paradigm and only those with "young" eyes see it. Kowabunga! I've adjusted my reading glasses and see SPX at 1800, maybe 2000 at the end of the year. So, does that leave room for a sell off in May? Here's my take. Yes there will be a selloff just to shake some old leaves off the tree, to give something for which the old crusty guys can then say, "told ya so", but timing it is not advisable, though I may take a stab at it. However... Stay strong "in" this Market. Who'll win the Masters?, The young man from China.

 

[JTH]

OK JTH and Mr. "quasi-dolt". What's your pick? Large or small caps for the rest of the year?

And, JTH, I hope you feel better soon! Probably the meds causing the nausea>

In a bull market I always expect the small caps to outperform large caps except on the pullbacks. But honestly, within TSP the differences often aren't enough to warrant using a precious IFT to switch from one fund to another. On this chart of the S&P 500 verses the Wilshire 4500, if the S&P 500 is winning, it usually means the markets are pulling back.

View attachment 23275

 

[Mcqlives]

Man I wish I could chart like you and Bquat! Thanks!

 

[JTH]

JTH, If I had Birches money I would probably share his enthusiasm ! Where do you think we trade from here? 1620 on the S&P ?

Have no idea, over the next few sessions I suspect we'll trade sideways with a light-volume positive bias.

 

[Bquat]

Man I wish I could chart like you and Bquat! Thanks!

I'll just let that go to my head. Just getting less news driven market. TA is a little better with the Fed pushing. If you start drawing charts you start seeing the patterns. Buy and hold is still beating my butt. I just keep holding through dips.:embarrest: JTH was kind of my mentor. I started doing them when he took a break. I love to find out my chart is good when I go look at his. He's better but two people may see two different things looking at the same chart. So I try to draw mine before looking at his to increase more of an unbiased look between the two of our charts. My skill level isn't really increasing but I can provide charts that others may see something in them to help them decide what to do.

 

[JTH]

Man I wish I could chart like you and Bquat! Thanks!

You can, most of everything we do is free, the tools are there, it's really just a box of crayons and a game of connect the dots.

 

[JimmyJoe]

In a bull market I always expect the small caps to outperform large caps except on the pullbacks. But honestly, within TSP the differences often aren't enough to warrant using a precious IFT to switch from one fund to another. On this chart of the S&P 500 verses the Wilshire 4500, if the S&P 500 is winning, it usually means the markets are pulling back.

View attachment 23275

Very good point about the S fund and its relation to the C fund. It's something I'll bear in mind. Yet, the balance sheet leans in favor of the C fund by a few percentage points, so the S fund, also the more expensive of the two, can come back those same points. Look y'all, we finally hammered the ceiling of the SPX and broke through big time today. Where's the laughter, where's the celebration? That's ok, I'm in tune with you. I can sandbag with all youz guys too, but down inside, it was a day I was waiting for. Yet there is no rest for the Miss Market. She's got a long way to go. I'm with her, arm and arm.

 

[Birchtree]

Fear drives out the greed in the bears and greed drives out fear in the bulls. There is a coming calamity as everyone will eventually try and get through the same door. I trust this rally and if we just experienced a true breakout, aggressive traders will be on the move to capitalize. We are undoubtedly on our way to an asset bubble and I like bubbles.

 

[JTH]

I was reprehensive about buying yesterday. But glad I did.

now kick me for not buying last Friday please! arf!

Well Friday was a whole different story than yesterday, statistically you made the better choice by waiting for a reversal. IMHO we aren't out of the woods yet, we still have an outside trend with a lower low & higher high. I suspect it's now time to pullback and form the higher low.

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