JTH's Account Talk

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JTH said:
You can, most of everything we do is free, the tools are there, it's really just a box of crayons and a game of connect the dots. :)
Click to expand...

Well I went to free stock charts and was denied access to even see the home page unless agreed to allow some.billgates virus into my pc...siilverlight what in blue blazes is it?
 
Good morning

Over the last 60 days, Thursday of Monday-Friday is the 2nd weakest of the 5 days, but the weakness is relatively minor.

View attachment 23283


Over the last 20 years, Day 9 of days 6-10 is the weakest of the 5 days.

View attachment 23284

This is week 15, it's flat, but what's really important to know is how weeks 16 & 17 have a strong positive bias, so if you're going to be invested only 2 weeks this month, these are the 2 weeks the stats support.

View attachment 23285
 
FAB1 said:
Well I went to free stock charts and was denied access to even see the home page unless agreed to allow some.billgates virus into my pc...siilverlight what in blue blazes is it?
Click to expand...

Microsoft Silverlight is the software used, it's sort of like Flash or HTML 5.
 
So what do your charts show historically for next Monday?

Oh, and it would be nice if you could find the third Monday of an April where NK launched a missile or did a nuke test:nuts:
 
Happy_Trails said:
AAII investor sentiment came in at only 19% bulls this week, FWIW.
Click to expand...

FWIW, I was one of the 19% bulls. AAII survey is more of a longer term than our SS week by week survey. They ask where will the markets
be in 6 months from today. I wonder how many voted on "the sell in May and go away" investment strategy.

Is that a contrarian buy, buy, buy, signal?
 
Mcqlives said:
So what do your charts show historically for next Monday?

Oh, and it would be nice if you could find the third Monday of an April where NK launched a missile or did a nuke test:nuts:
Click to expand...

Well I'm in, if that tells you anything. In cases where Friday closes down (not the norm) then it is more likely Monday will close up. If both Friday & Monday close down, then it is very likely lower intraday prices will be seen later in the week.
 
Kaufmanrider said:
FWIW, I was one of the 19% bulls. AAII survey is more of a longer term than our SS week by week survey. They ask where will the markets
be in 6 months from today. I wonder how many voted on "the sell in May and go away" investment strategy.

Is that a contrarian buy, buy, buy, signal?
Click to expand...

I would say that it becomes a buy signal when the sentiment rises back above 25%. Dropping below 25% is part one. Rising back above 25% is part two. Check out Les Masonson's book 'Buy Don't Hold" for further detail. He uses sentiment as one of a basket of about 4 indicators.
 
I should add, this would be an ideal place for which the markets could pull back, but I'm out of IFTs and if I want to make money this month then I need to be prepared to absorb some pain.

View attachment 23306
 
Pain - most people don't realize how valuable a little pain can be. Me, I want as much pain as I can absorb. I believe the yield on the 10 year government treasury bond is still trading around 1.79% - can you see the pain coming. The prospective yield on blue chip stocks over the next year is somewhere close to 4%. This has only happened three or four times since WW11 and each time it marked the beginning of a great bull market. There will be a painful rotation out of bonds at some point and the mega trend secular bull market will whistle as the Grand Trunk continues along the rails into further uncharted territory.
 
Does it matter how that down day progressed?

Big drop and grind higher vs.
slow drop throughout the day vs.
big jump and drop throughout the day

and others...
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
Does it matter how that down day progressed?

Big drop and grind higher vs.
slow drop throughout the day vs.
big jump and drop throughout the day

and others...
Click to expand...

These particular stats are measured off the Daily timeframe, measuring the type of stats you are referring to would take intraday data, the likes of which would be very time consuming. While much of the data can be identified with formulas, much of it still has to be filtered by hand because when I try to create complex formulas it often breaks/freezes excel.
 
JTH said:
These particular stats are measured off the Daily timeframe, measuring the type of stats you are referring to would take intraday data, the likes of which would be very time consuming. While much of the data can be identified with formulas, much of it still has to be filtered by hand because when I try to create complex formulas it often breaks/freezes excel.
Click to expand...

Wasn't sure how you had the data. I understand the Excel limitations. I have started porting all my data over the access and writing the code to import automatically. It will take time up front, but it will save time later and allow me to do some "analysis" when I get time.

Right now, my function to scrape the AT isn't working real well and I don't know if its because it takes so long to display or I need to mess with the timeouts on the dll call... only time will tell ;)
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
Wasn't sure how you had the data. I understand the Excel limitations. I have started porting all my data over the access and writing the code to import automatically. It will take time up front, but it will save time later and allow me to do some "analysis" when I get time.

Right now, my function to scrape the AT isn't working real well and I don't know if its because it takes so long to display or I need to mess with the timeouts on the dll call... only time will tell ;)
Click to expand...

I am self-taught but by no means an excel guru, there are probably functions I am not utilizing to their fullest potential. :)
 
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