JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

Good afternoon

From my current perspective it's an inaccurate assumption to believe a resolution to the fiscal cliff will yield anything other than a few day pop. Looking ahead, besides the debt ceiling, fiscal cliff and capital gains increase, there are three technical analysis items we can pay attention to.

The first 5 days early warning indicator: if the first 5 days of January are up, odds weigh heavily the year will end up.

The January Barometer: So goes January, so goes the year.

The December's Low early warning system: All but one of the instances since 1952 experienced further declines, as the Dow fell an additional 11.1% on average when December's low was breached in Q1.

As I've mentioned in the past, anyone can make money in a bull market, IMHO the true measure of one's investment prowess is revealed in a bear market.

 

[JTH]

Right now the S&P 500's 4th quarter is sitting at -2.67%

Going back to 1963 the S&P 500 has had 12 negative 4th quarters. Of those, 9 have resulted in a lower low in the 1st quarter and 9 have resulted in a negative close for the 1st quarter. This means if we close this quarter in the red, there is a 75% historical probability we will make a lower low in the 1st quarter and/or close the 1st quarter in the red.

 

[Birchtree]

Forget the 1st quarter - I'm going to make mucho dollars in the first month just like in January 2012.

 

[Handballer]

JTH Thanks for the info and research. I'm in the G fund now and will stay there during the first 5 trading days of the new year and see what happens.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

No moves for myself today, I'll gladly stay 100% S-Fund, it's been a great year, my only regret is that it was played too conservatively.

 

[JTH]

Chime in

Interesting observation (although I really don't know what to make of it.) Check out the 5 year monthly chart of the S&P 100, on an opening/closing basis the large caps have moved very little over the last two month...

View attachment 21716

 

[Cactus]

Isn't this just a continuation of The Lost Decade? Supposedly if you Bought & Held the S&P 500 from 2000 - 2009 you made $0. That's still better than I did, but not what folks are looking for. This is why we are all here on TSPTalk, right, to try and beat Buy-N-Hold which hasn't been giving us anything in this millennium.

 

[Birchtree]

JTH,

Since I survived my push down a flight of stair I've decided that when I visit Ft. Sam Houston this summer I'm going to come by your place and drop a Baby Ruth in your pool. I look forward to another year of competition and fun puns.

 

[JTH]

JTH,

Since I survived my push down a flight of stair I've decided that when I visit Ft. Sam Houston this summer I'm going to come by your place and drop a Baby Ruth in your pool. I look forward to another year of competition and fun puns.

Thanks, my friend, you are most certainly welcome to drop a turd in my pool any day of the week. It was a decent year, I wish I could say I was satisfied with being number 66, truth is I feel like the 65th loser. While it was a great year, I myself played the first half too conservatively, and also found that some of the best 2012 opportunities were missed because I felt my IFTs were more important than the opportunity. Finding the balance between IFTs & strategy is challenging. For 2013 I am now more determined than ever to kick the living crap out of everyone on the tracker

 

[JTH]

It's been another boring day in the markets, the gap up on the NASDAQ is of epic proportions, no matter, it will get filled...

 

[BigJohn]

Thanks, my friend, you are most certainly welcome to drop a turd in my pool any day of the week. It was a decent year, I wish I could say I was satisfied with being number 66, truth is I feel like the 65th loser. While it was a great year, I myself played the first half too conservatively, and also found that some of the best 2012 opportunities were missed because I felt my IFTs were more important than the opportunity. Finding the balance between IFTs & strategy is challenging. For 2013 I am now more determined than ever to kick the living crap out of everyone on the tracker

Now I like that!

 

[JTH]

Hey everyone

I posted this over the weekend January's Price Performance

 

[rktect1]

My head hurts after reading that. What is the bottom line here? Stand pat on s fund for january.

 

[JTH]

My head hurts after reading that. What is the bottom line here? Stand pat on s fund for january.

Lol, just saying S-Fund should outperform the C&I funds for the month of January.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

Don't believe the media hype, bonds can perform alonside stocks, it doesn't have to be one or the other. Those who are already in stocks want to flush out bond holders, to hype up their prices just before they exit. Considering the circumstances, AGG has held up well.

 

[JTH]

Check out the increase in OVERALL volume over the last 3 days on the 15 minute chart. It's also nice to see a ramp up of positive volume into the close.

View attachment 21758

 

[Birchtree]

If the market follows the August 1982 break out pattern, tomorrow could be a barn burner to the upside. That was the classic beginning of a mega trend secular bull market - it just feels right. So much money sloshing around looking for yield. Remember, financials and utilities have tended to underperform in the months leading up to bull market peaks - I can't see that far into the distance.

 

[JTH]

If the market follows the August 1982 break out pattern, tomorrow could be a barn burner to the upside. That was the classic beginning of a mega trend secular bull market - it just feels right. So much money sloshing around looking for yield. Remember, financials and utilities have tended to underperform in the months leading up to bull market peaks - I can't see that far into the distance.

Thanks BT, I wish I could share your optimistic optimism, 1982 was a great year, but I fail to see the correlation with today, but of course I don't think anything correlates to these past 5 years. I am more curious what a 6-12 month end to QE3 means for bonds and in-turn what this will mean for stocks.

 

[Birchtree]

I don't believe QE4 is going to end any time soon - the Fed has set their tranparent parameters and will probably stay focused through 2015. I want an equity asset bubble, please.

 

[JTH]

I don't believe QE4 is going to end any time soon - the Fed has set their tranparent parameters and will probably stay focused through 2015. I want an equity asset bubble, please.

I have to say I'm impressed with our members and their ability to keep on their sticky pants on. I was expecting to shake off some of those (scared to make money) but it didn't happen. This crowd has been getting smarter every year and IT and his boys have been killing it!