JTH's Account Talk

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Like a lot of others here I stumbled upon some signals that I use as "get in/stay in" and "get out/stay out" triggers. I was trying to find some unemotional robot-like yes/no switch. It turned out that my ideas can work, but only with on-the-mark human judgement thrown in. You are best off if you have a good read on the important news of the times - short-term and longer-term.

Currently, good judgement would've had me in stocks all year so far, like Birch, but I listened to lots of doom and gloomers. One thing to keep in mind is a rule I learned from Minyanville "The market takes the path of maximum frustration". These talking heads are smart and educated and they say "you are insane to be in the market at this point", and they are frustrated. So many things to consider at every moment that its hard to just use a black box. And I'm not implying that JTH does - I don't think he does - just that many people try to.
 
Minyanville is a bearish site and not wise for good health - but it takes all kinds to make a market.
 
Actually the economic situations are even better now and the market is primed for risk on stampedes - 1700 and 17000 or bust. You're going to be pleasantly surprised.
 
JTH,

What will it take to draw you out - with a 7% gain in your Roth have you no shame when it comes to TSP (pun intended). AT #746 our "Cooler" friend Frito 15 will hop you soon and then comes #820 amoeba to walk up your back. How can you let this happen. AT #718 you have waited long enough for Godot because only mild consolidations are imminent for the duration of 2012. Get long and strong.
 
Birchtree said:
JTH,

What will it take to draw you out - with a 7% gain in your Roth have you no shame when it comes to TSP (pun intended). AT #746 our "Cooler" friend Frito 15 will hop you soon and then comes #820 amoeba to walk up your back. How can you let this happen. AT #718 you have waited long enough for Godot because only mild consolidations are imminent for the duration of 2012. Get long and strong.
Click to expand...

Too true, this is what happens when you wait for a supposed pullback to occur and it doesn't. Even with my minimum 12% a year standard, I'm underperforming and we are nearing the end of the 1st quarter already. We've always talked about how you cannot outperform a bull market, this is a good example. It may take a while but I do believe I will catch up, I just need an opportunity...

I see you are #115 on the tracker, that is nothing to sneeze at :)
 
Good Afternoon

It's hard to believe I still have 1 IFT and have not found the ideal entry point with which to use it. Looking at the last 3 waves on the S&P 500, we can see that not only are they getting shorter in duration, but also shorter in depth. This gives the appearance of a classic topping pattern where the chart is losing momentum and wants to roll over. Conversely, AGG looks to have topped out on this last wave (study the volume) and is ready for the next downwave, so if bonds are still heading down, why would we not believe stocks can still press higher?
 
Setting aside my severe underperformance verses the markets, I'm doing rather well in both the F & S funds when you take into account my entry positions. With 1 trading day left in March, 1 IFT and 10% in both F & S I'm finding it difficult to decide how to position myself going into next month.
 
When you have 3 pullbacks in 22 days, that is what a classic (rounded) topping pattern looks like. This market has no momentum, it is range bound and losing steam. The best advice I can give is to wait for a breakout, then trade with the direction of the breakout. Please look at these charts and understand the market is not doing as well as we may think.

The number of S&P 500 stocks (500 in all) trading above their 50 day moving average is putting in lower highs, this is a divergence with price. A divergence with price can go on for an extended period of time, but it cannot be sustained, eventually these two must realign.
View attachment 18405


The weighting of Apple is the primary reason the S&P 500 has been leading these markets. HIGH POLE WARNING issued today.
View attachment 18407
View attachment 18408
 
Man, you and me both-- one trade left, sitting on the sidelines, and wishing I knew which way things are about to break. NO CLUE. It could go either way. So I'll stay safe and sit tight.

I'm sitting on the sidelines with 90% of my account mixed G/F, and I just can't bring myself to jump back in, as much as I would normally want to do so. Everything I see is pointing TWO ways-

1. Sideways- although the occilation is getting smaller in each cycle, so we're going to have a breakout soon.

2. Even though we're overdue for a downside break.......everytime we start to get it, money flows back in, and it bounces back a little.

I just can't figure this one out.

Thanks for keeping up with the P&F charts, by the way. Your posting in that thread helps me a great deal when I am busy and can't take a close look quickly.

Great job- and here is to us both figuring out which way it's going to go next, and being ready to respond appropriately whenever that is.
 
James48843 said:
Man, you and me both-- one trade left, sitting on the sidelines, and wishing I knew which way things are about to break. NO CLUE. It could go either way. So I'll stay safe and sit tight.

I'm sitting on the sidelines with 90% of my account mixed G/F, and I just can't bring myself to jump back in, as much as I would normally want to do so. Everything I see is pointing TWO ways-

1. Sideways- although the occilation is getting smaller in each cycle, so we're going to have a breakout soon.

2. Even though we're overdue for a downside break.......everytime we start to get it, money flows back in, and it bounces back a little.

I just can't figure this one out.

Thanks for keeping up with the P&F charts, by the way. Your posting in that thread helps me a great deal when I am busy and can't take a close look quickly.

Great job- and here is to us both figuring out which way it's going to go next, and being ready to respond appropriately whenever that is.
Click to expand...

Thanks James, I'm glad to see we agree, I chose to go 100% G and wait for confirmation of the next move. If we go down from here I'll look like a hero, if we go up from here I'll be in the same situation I've been in all year, "under-invested."
 
Good morning

The markets aren't exactly rolling over, but prices have been consolidating in a tight intraday range above the 50 SMA, with little movement on the Transports. This lack of pullback has been impressive, since the last set of waves were uptrend, if you had to guess which way the market was going to go, the logical guess is to go with the previous uptrend, but at the same time there is something to be said for waning momentum it should be respected. It takes composed-fortitude to watch a market make a rounding top....

View attachment 18488

 
Good morning

The markets aren't exactly rolling over, but prices have been consolidating in a tight intraday range above the 50 SMA, with little movement on the Transports. This lack of pullback has been impressive, since the last set of waves were uptrends, if you had to guess which way the market was going to go, the logical guess is to go with the previous uptrend, but at the same time there is something to be said for waning momentum it should be respected. It takes composed-fortitude to watch a market make a rounding top....

View attachment 18488

 
Too light of action today....more listening to Fed/noQE than job number (which can be sold into even if in line). I say wait and look to buy lower.
 
Wow- another day where we got close (within 3 points) of breaking the S&P 500, but then the money poured back in, and we got relief once again.

I am simply amazed at the resilience of this market. I am still sitting in a mix of G and F, waiting for the opportunity to jump back in, AFTER what I see is a nice 3% to 5% pullback from this level. That's what my gut says- and that's what the P&F chart tells me is going to happen soon, but we can't seem to get that breakdown that I just KNOW is going to come, and come soon.

Sheesh. We're both seeing the same thing JHT, and I know we're close.

Good luck - it should happen any day now.

(he says, again, a month after the last time he said that......)
 
James48843 said:
Wow- another day where we got close (within 3 points) of breaking the S&P 500, but then the money poured back in, and we got relief once again.

I am simply amazed at the resilience of this market. I am still sitting in a mix of G and F, waiting for the opportunity to jump back in, AFTER what I see is a nice 3% to 5% pullback from this level. That's what my gut says- and that's what the P&F chart tells me is going to happen soon, but we can't seem to get that breakdown that I just KNOW is going to come, and come soon.

Sheesh. We're both seeing the same thing JHT, and I know we're close.

Good luck - it should happen any day now.

(he says, again, a month after the last time he said that......)
Click to expand...

Many of us are saying the same thing, and some of us have been thinking it for a couple months... This market has been very, uh, dare I say, bullish...
 
Interesting observation: If Sirus were to tack on another X at 2.50 it will have established a higher low, higher high, double top breakout, and will have broken through the dominant descending trendline.

View attachment 18494
 
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