JTH's Account Talk

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Birchtree said:
With a market P/E of 15 times reported earnings there seems to be plenty of room over head. Even Transports are turning back up from their bearish head fake.
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Thanks Birchtree, I am not going to call this top, just sell into it...
 
i noticed on your chart it happened in jan. and after that things went up for the most part. should we expect the same?
 
GUCHI said:
i noticed on your chart it happened in jan. and after that things went up for the most part. should we expect the same?
Click to expand...

Based on current levels, a Bear flag would hit its Price Objective at 5,000 on the Transportation Index, taking us to (roughly) a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. In SPX terms this would translate to 1270, but I think a shallow retracement to 1315 would be more than acceptable in this scenario based on the recent performance of the large caps.
View attachment 17939
View attachment 17940
 
Activity in VIX futures has accelerated. Historically, when VIX futures trade above the VIX, a modest rise in stocks follows. Convinced? If we are looking at a replay of 1995 when stocks surged 34% it's time to ....(you finish it).
 
I have a toe dipped in stocks not enough to make much or lose much. Makes me feel involved.
 
This is a Fibonacci Parallel Price Channel based off of closing prices as represented by the yellow dots. This is the first time we've violated this channel.

SPX Daily
View attachment 18006
 
Still watching the Bear Flag on the Transports, with a 4950 PO. Note: It's retraced more than 50% of the previous wave and pierced below the previous peak from early December.

View attachment 18007

 
JTH said:
This is a Fibonacci Parallel Price Channel based off of closing prices as represented by the yellow dots. This is the first time we've violated this channel.
Click to expand...

JTH said:
Still watching the Bear Flag on the Transports, with a 4950 PO. Note: It's retraced more than 50% of the previous wave and pierced below the previous peak from early December.



Click to expand...

The day isn't over yet. This afternoon could prove uplifting :)
 
No. I simply forbid it. No afternoon delight.

everyone Buy F fund tomorrow and maybe we can do stocks later this week...perfect.
 
FAB1 said:
everyone Buy F fund tomorrow and maybe we can do stocks later this week...perfect.
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OK ... maybe not the place to ask (if so, I apologize!), but I don't have a grasp of how the F fund works. Why would the F fund be a good place to be right now? Yes, up today, but hasn't it been down just as much lately?
 
WhoDey said:
OK ... maybe not the place to ask (if so, I apologize!), but I don't have a grasp of how the F fund works. Why would the F fund be a good place to be right now? Yes, up today, but hasn't it been down just as much lately?
Click to expand...

In theory, when $ flows out of stocks, (as it did today), it has to go somewhere. A lot of it flows into bonds, as they are more attractive than stocks, which are sinking. This should make bond yields fall, because in theory, they shouldn't have to pay as much interest to attract $. The F Fund (and all bond funds) behave inversely to interest rates. That would mean that as bond yields fall, the value of the bond holding should rise, which would be reflected in the share price. Of course, all of this depends on the bond fund holdings (short, intermediate, and long), and risk (AAA ratings to junk bonds). I believe the F Fund primarily holds short to intermediate term US Treasury Notes.

Hope that helps!

JR
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Hope that helps!
Click to expand...
It does help, thank you.

I suppose my difficulty is this ... when the C/S/I funds move up or down, I feel like I can put my hands on some reason (in hindsight!). I don't have the same sense for the F fund. Maybe today is a relatively dramatic exception in which I can see what you're saying ... people are fleeing stocks and going to bonds. On other less dramatic days, however, I can't make a connection between how the F fund moves and what's going on in the world. Earlier this year, the Fed announced the "intent" to keep interest rates low which, I thought, wouldn't be a great thing for the F fund. Thus my confusion when it does well.

If the C/S/I funds are the black jack table ... I feel like the F fund is the roulette wheel!

I know ... I know ... "Grasshopper, see if you can snatch the pebble from my hand." ... I have A LOT to learn!
 
WhoDey said:
OK ... maybe not the place to ask (if so, I apologize!), but I don't have a grasp of how the F fund works. Why would the F fund be a good place to be right now? Yes, up today, but hasn't it been down just as much lately?
Click to expand...

I voiced what I would have desired to see happens. I was pretty much. in vain though and I goofed. again.
Now I get to chase the S fund or sit in F and see my years gain get whittled away in bite size chunks rather than swallowed whole by massive hemorrhaging of equities.

For you see no matter what I choose and where I go I am Fluked.
 
I realize I'm not winning any races this year but the facts are I'm managing my positions just fine.

IFT EOB Today, 80G, 10F, 10S, (selling 5% S and buying 5% F)
 
Mike

I happen to agree with the overall assertion this market is topping out, making it proper to secure longs with tight stops. The problem is that most of the technical analyst I respect are all on the same side. This increases the probability of flipping the boat, making the improbable probable. For myself, my plan has met my expectations so I have no need to deviate from what is working. KISS
 
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