JTH's Account Talk

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The dumping of bonds will keep equities afloat for years to come. The Dow top is somewhere past 17,000 probably a long way past 17,000.
 
JTH said:
Transports up 3.71% you just don't see this very often...
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Indeed. Do you think we are in the "blow off top" arena yet? I just don't know frankly. Is there really anything standing in the way of higher prices right now other than skepticism?

I'm not a perma bull, but frankly I'm waaaaaaaay more anxious out of the market than in, and not just during the good times.
 
JTH,

The best way to read how much money there is for investment in the stock market is the A/D line. Corporate stock buybacks in this cycle are already outpacing the incredible pace of the 2003-2007 cycle - they are believers and their money is talking.
 
JamesE said:
Indeed. Do you think we are in the "blow off top" arena yet? I just don't know frankly. Is there really anything standing in the way of higher prices right now other than skepticism?

I'm not a perma bull, but frankly I'm waaaaaaaay more anxious out of the market than in, and not just during the good times.
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Over the years I've had to learn that sometimes there is no need to try and make sense out of something that doesn't. Aside from outright manipulation, the only justification I can give you is that Europe is worse, therefore we are more attractive. Greece is 1 tiny economy and look how much the markets have wigged out over that when it pales in comparison to Italy and Spain. I just don't know and I'm not willing to guess where the top will be, but I will be prepared (through position sizing) to absorb whatever pain may come our way.
 
I've seen many folks come on here and think they have the greatest system in the world. If one truly believes that and they want to share their knowledge with others then they should acknowledge they have a responsibility to be held accountable for their actions, be they good or bad. I'm going to tell this to everyone and if you don't like it, you can shove it up your proverbial azz.

If you can't backrest your system more than 10 years, then your system is flawed, period. I'm speaking from experience, having done literally thousands of backtest, covering multiple timeframes and indicators going back as much as 50 years, I cannot overstress how varied the results can be.

The truth is it is the person and their ability to put faith into a system that is important, not the system itself...
 
Not looking to start any fights. I respect everyone's interest, research and work into finding a "system" they can put faith in. As such the above post is very important.

I will say, however, the market is a dynamic beast which isn't bound by any set rules or operating parameters. Backtesting is important because the past is the best guide to inform the future but the past does not dictate the future.
 
Furthermore the market is actively interested in NOT being figured out. It's pretty unique in that regard. This is why systems come and go...once the character of the market is "figured out" then, by it's very nature, the market character has to change.
 
JTH said:
If you can't backrest your system more than 10 years, then your system is flawed, period. I'm speaking from experience, having done literally thousands of backtest, covering multiple timeframes and indicators going back as much as 50 years, I cannot overstress how varied the results can be.
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Do you really think it makes any sense to go back before 2000. The charts seam to indicate the behavior of the market changed dramatically with the turn of the Millenium. Advances in technology and autotrading is my guess.

I agree with Mapper that once you spot a pattern it's too late. The market won't behave that way after that. That's why I'm bringing up the bottom of the AT. :sick:
 
Happy Trails said:
This is why buy and hold is often recommended.
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Yeah, that was the first to burn me as I bought into the C Fund in May of 2000 and held it for years. It's been all over the place but hasn't gotten that high since. Buy-N-Hold only works if you don't buy high like I did.
 
JTH said:
I've seen many folks come on here and think they have the greatest system in the world. If one truly believes that and they want to share their knowledge with others then they should acknowledge they have a responsibility to be held accountable for their actions, be they good or bad. I'm going to tell this to everyone and if you don't like it, you can shove it up your proverbial azz.

If you can't backrest your system more than 10 years, then your system is flawed, period. I'm speaking from experience, having done literally thousands of backtest, covering multiple timeframes and indicators going back as much as 50 years, I cannot overstress how varied the results can be.

The truth is it is the person and their ability to put faith into a system that is important, not the system itself...
Click to expand...

Cactus said:
Do you really think it makes any sense to go back before 2000. The charts seam to indicate the behavior of the market changed dramatically with the turn of the Millenium. Advances in technology and autotrading is my guess.

I agree with Mapper that once you spot a pattern it's too late. The market won't behave that way after that. That's why I'm bringing up the bottom of the AT. :sick:
Click to expand...

Bless you Cactus, you are a good person and you always ask questions that enlighten the forum. I do realize the intraday ranges have increased substantially since 2000, the game has gotten faster, but it's still the same game. It is my opinion if a system is good it should be able to (within a reasonable maximum loss) weather all storms. There are many beautiful bull & bear runs to pick from when you track back 50 years, the 1973 crash being my favorite. When you change the timeframes (1, 4, 6 months 1, 3, 7, 9 years ect) and make them variable, your results can be drastically different. Point being you can't just cherry-pick the time frame and expect a system to be successful. I also want to make a point that in the past I have been hypocritical on this topic, (advocating how great my own systems are) but as time passed and my knowledge level substantially increased, I've realized just how important meaningful backtesting truly is.

As for systems, there is not 1 system on this forum that carries any weight with me, if we all happen to be on the same side of the trade then I'm happy, but it does not affect how I manage my own trades.
 
Thank you and good morning!

With 1 IFT left, I will hold the 10% F&S, in the ROTH IRA I will head to the sidelines as soon as a top is confirmed.
 
You may be invested in your Roth position for sometime yet. If it's 1995 the top is a long way off.
 
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