JTH
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 1,009
JTH Account Talk Thread.
For anyone who is curious, I've laid out my next 3 IFTs.
View attachment 17418
For anyone who is curious, I've laid out my next 3 IFTs.
View attachment 17418
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JTH's Account Talk
- Thread starter JTH
- Start date
JTH
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 1,009
Re: JTH Account Talk Thread.
Good questions! If I run out of IFTs on the way up, then it isn't a problem, if I run out on the way down then it is what it is, I wait for the reload, then take action based on where price sits at the time of the reload. I chose the 30% entry based on where we were within the waves, we are overbought, so I chose to reduce my exposure. Based on past expierences I believe this will work well for my risk tolerance, keep me in the game, let me sleep well at night, and giver everyone a chance to see how position sizing works...
Good questions! If I run out of IFTs on the way up, then it isn't a problem, if I run out on the way down then it is what it is, I wait for the reload, then take action based on where price sits at the time of the reload. I chose the 30% entry based on where we were within the waves, we are overbought, so I chose to reduce my exposure. Based on past expierences I believe this will work well for my risk tolerance, keep me in the game, let me sleep well at night, and giver everyone a chance to see how position sizing works...
crommie
Market Tracker
- Reaction score
- 8
JTH
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 1,009
Re: have you found your MOJO?
Thank you for asking. In this situation I may because AGG is still in an uptrend and the gaps it created on the last upwave have now been closed. Now we have two gaps on the last downwave that need to be filled, if we maintain the higher swing low than I believe we can close those new gaps, especially if stocks pull back.
AGG 30 minute chart
View attachment 17443
Wilshire 4500 30 Minute chart
View attachment 17444
Thank you for asking. In this situation I may because AGG is still in an uptrend and the gaps it created on the last upwave have now been closed. Now we have two gaps on the last downwave that need to be filled, if we maintain the higher swing low than I believe we can close those new gaps, especially if stocks pull back.
AGG 30 minute chart
View attachment 17443
Wilshire 4500 30 Minute chart
View attachment 17444
JTH
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 1,009
Re: Mojo'in
What a dramatic close for bonds, AGG opened -.25% with a gap down (closing a previous gap), then closed today's gap finishing the day at -.05%
View attachment 17452
What a dramatic close for bonds, AGG opened -.25% with a gap down (closing a previous gap), then closed today's gap finishing the day at -.05%
View attachment 17452
crommie
Market Tracker
- Reaction score
- 8
Re: WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE - don't ya just luv roller-coasters?
I didn't see that coming! I was hoping to buy in below that gap and then watch both of them get filled for a quick 3/4% gain...oh well. Still hoping to see the upper gap fill next week for a 1/2% gain.
Thank you again JTH for tracking and charting the AGG.
I didn't see that coming! I was hoping to buy in below that gap and then watch both of them get filled for a quick 3/4% gain...oh well. Still hoping to see the upper gap fill next week for a 1/2% gain.
Thank you again JTH for tracking and charting the AGG.
JTH
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 1,009
Re: WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE - don't ya just luv roller-coasters?
Thank you Crommie, I'm glad someone (besides me) enjoys watching the AGG chart.
Thank you Crommie, I'm glad someone (besides me) enjoys watching the AGG chart.
SteelSaving
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 17
Intrepid_Timer
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 71
Re: JTH Account Talk Thread.
This is from Porter Stansbury (I'm not recommending him, I'm just posting what he said):
"The U.S. increased the debt ceiling on Friday (with 52 votes from the Senate), allowing us to borrow another $1.2 trillion to goose the economy. According to the financial blog Zero Hedge, two days later, the dry powder is down to $1.1 trillion… We added $120 billion to the national debt in two days."
The Senate voted on the the new debt ceiling on Jan 26th, it may not have been approved until Friday the 27th, I don't know. With the low trading volumes in the markets, that money would go a long way propping up the markets, especially small caps...............just saying.............
This is from Porter Stansbury (I'm not recommending him, I'm just posting what he said):
"The U.S. increased the debt ceiling on Friday (with 52 votes from the Senate), allowing us to borrow another $1.2 trillion to goose the economy. According to the financial blog Zero Hedge, two days later, the dry powder is down to $1.1 trillion… We added $120 billion to the national debt in two days."
The Senate voted on the the new debt ceiling on Jan 26th, it may not have been approved until Friday the 27th, I don't know. With the low trading volumes in the markets, that money would go a long way propping up the markets, especially small caps...............just saying.............
JTH
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 1,009
Re: Mojo'in
I cannot give you a definitive answer, this isn't my area of expertise, what I can do is justify the difference as best I can. (1) The bond market closes 1 hour before the stock market does, although AGG trades till the end of the day, the bond market doesn't. This is one of the reasons it's difficult to get an accurate reading on the F-Fund. As we can see from the two charts, bonds close an hour early at 3:00 EST, at this time AGG was down -.19% We are more apt to get the 3:00 AGG price rather than the 4:00 price. (2) For the month of January AGG closed up .725% while the F-Fund closed up .88% (3) At the beginning of every month it is typical to see AGG pay out a dividend, we don't get that dividend in the F-Fund so it creates an additional variance. (4) Lastly, Month To Date, AGG is down .44% while the F-Fund is down .41% so over the last 3 trading days there is really only a .03% variance between the two funds. Hope this helps...Jason
5-Day 30 Minute Chart
View attachment 17458
View attachment 17457
I cannot give you a definitive answer, this isn't my area of expertise, what I can do is justify the difference as best I can. (1) The bond market closes 1 hour before the stock market does, although AGG trades till the end of the day, the bond market doesn't. This is one of the reasons it's difficult to get an accurate reading on the F-Fund. As we can see from the two charts, bonds close an hour early at 3:00 EST, at this time AGG was down -.19% We are more apt to get the 3:00 AGG price rather than the 4:00 price. (2) For the month of January AGG closed up .725% while the F-Fund closed up .88% (3) At the beginning of every month it is typical to see AGG pay out a dividend, we don't get that dividend in the F-Fund so it creates an additional variance. (4) Lastly, Month To Date, AGG is down .44% while the F-Fund is down .41% so over the last 3 trading days there is really only a .03% variance between the two funds. Hope this helps...Jason
5-Day 30 Minute Chart
View attachment 17458
View attachment 17457
Khotso
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 27
Re: JTH Account Talk Thread.
Just curious and wanting to learn.
I don't understand the direct connection here ... how could increasing the debt ceiling prop the markets or as Nasa speculated:"feeding the stock market for Thursdays bond sale"? How would the Fed do this? I can see how buying Treasuries would do this. Is there something else I'm missing?
Just curious and wanting to learn.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
This from TWSJ: "A quiet U.S. economic recovery, with slow growth and low inflation, is fertile background for stock gains. Unemployment remains high, but as long as it doesn't hold back profits, it helps keep dpwn inflation, which in turn keeps interest rates low and provides support to stocks. A Fed program of bond buying would provide billions in new money for financial markets, which in the past has been very good news for stocks."
