JTH's Account Talk

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Re: JTH Account Talk Thread.

Nicely played. I like it!
But,
What if an entry and more than one buy get hit before the end of the month?
OR
What if your sell levels get hit before the entries?
 
Re: JTH Account Talk Thread.

Mapper said:
Nicely played. I like it!
But,
What if an entry and more than one buy get hit before the end of the month?
OR
What if your sell levels get hit before the entries?
Click to expand...

Good questions! If I run out of IFTs on the way up, then it isn't a problem, if I run out on the way down then it is what it is, I wait for the reload, then take action based on where price sits at the time of the reload. I chose the 30% entry based on where we were within the waves, we are overbought, so I chose to reduce my exposure. Based on past expierences I believe this will work well for my risk tolerance, keep me in the game, let me sleep well at night, and giver everyone a chance to see how position sizing works...

 
Re: have you found your MOJO?

As referenced in post #3282

Heads up, my price objectives have hit for both the wilshire 4500, in addtition, the up-gaps on AGG's 30 minute chart closed. :)
 
Re: have you found your MOJO?

JTH said:
As referenced in post #3282

Heads up, my price objectives have hit for both the wilshire 4500, in addtition, the up-gaps on AGG's 30 minute chart closed. :)
Click to expand...

Hi JTH, so are you saying that your moving 10% of your S shares into F?
 
Re: have you found your MOJO?

crommie said:
Hi JTH, so are you saying that your moving 10% of your S shares into F?
Click to expand...

Thank you for asking. In this situation I may because AGG is still in an uptrend and the gaps it created on the last upwave have now been closed. Now we have two gaps on the last downwave that need to be filled, if we maintain the higher swing low than I believe we can close those new gaps, especially if stocks pull back.

AGG 30 minute chart
View attachment 17443

Wilshire 4500 30 Minute chart
View attachment 17444
 
Re: have you found your MOJO?

Thank you JTH for your analysis. I agree that stocks could cool their heels next week and the Fed will be looking to drive yields down and therefore bond prices up.
 
Re: Yes I have my MOJO!

JTH said:
Gotta love that fracken rocket ship....
Click to expand...

Oh I'm loving it alright! lol

To be honest I'm just glad I am recouping my losses from last year and I am a little over half way to doing just that. Lets hope I can jump ship at the right time now...
 
Re: WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE - don't ya just luv roller-coasters?

I didn't see that coming! I was hoping to buy in below that gap and then watch both of them get filled for a quick 3/4% gain...oh well. Still hoping to see the upper gap fill next week for a 1/2% gain. :) Thank you again JTH for tracking and charting the AGG.
 
Re: JTH Account Talk Thread.

I wonder??? Are the FEDS feeding the stock market for Thursdays bond sale?
 
Re: JTH Account Talk Thread.

nasa1974 said:
I wonder??? Are the FEDS feeding the stock market for Thursdays bond sale?
Click to expand...

This is from Porter Stansbury (I'm not recommending him, I'm just posting what he said):

"The U.S. increased the debt ceiling on Friday (with 52 votes from the Senate), allowing us to borrow another $1.2 trillion to goose the economy. According to the financial blog Zero Hedge, two days later, the dry powder is down to $1.1 trillion… We added $120 billion to the national debt in two days."

The Senate voted on the the new debt ceiling on Jan 26th, it may not have been approved until Friday the 27th, I don't know. With the low trading volumes in the markets, that money would go a long way propping up the markets, especially small caps...............just saying.............
 
Re: Mojo'in

SteelSaving said:
Then why in the world did the F fund finish at -.37%?
Click to expand...

I cannot give you a definitive answer, this isn't my area of expertise, what I can do is justify the difference as best I can. (1) The bond market closes 1 hour before the stock market does, although AGG trades till the end of the day, the bond market doesn't. This is one of the reasons it's difficult to get an accurate reading on the F-Fund. As we can see from the two charts, bonds close an hour early at 3:00 EST, at this time AGG was down -.19% We are more apt to get the 3:00 AGG price rather than the 4:00 price. (2) For the month of January AGG closed up .725% while the F-Fund closed up .88% (3) At the beginning of every month it is typical to see AGG pay out a dividend, we don't get that dividend in the F-Fund so it creates an additional variance. (4) Lastly, Month To Date, AGG is down .44% while the F-Fund is down .41% so over the last 3 trading days there is really only a .03% variance between the two funds. Hope this helps...Jason

5-Day 30 Minute Chart
View attachment 17458
View attachment 17457
 
Re: JTH Account Talk Thread.

Intrepid_Timer said:
This is from Porter Stansbury (I'm not recommending him, I'm just posting what he said):

"The U.S. increased the debt ceiling on Friday (with 52 votes from the Senate), allowing us to borrow another $1.2 trillion to goose the economy. According to the financial blog Zero Hedge, two days later, the dry powder is down to $1.1 trillion… We added $120 billion to the national debt in two days."

The Senate voted on the the new debt ceiling on Jan 26th, it may not have been approved until Friday the 27th, I don't know. With the low trading volumes in the markets, that money would go a long way propping up the markets, especially small caps...............just saying.............
Click to expand...
I don't understand the direct connection here ... how could increasing the debt ceiling prop the markets or as Nasa speculated:"feeding the stock market for Thursdays bond sale"? How would the Fed do this? I can see how buying Treasuries would do this. Is there something else I'm missing?
Just curious and wanting to learn.
 
This from TWSJ: "A quiet U.S. economic recovery, with slow growth and low inflation, is fertile background for stock gains. Unemployment remains high, but as long as it doesn't hold back profits, it helps keep dpwn inflation, which in turn keeps interest rates low and provides support to stocks. A Fed program of bond buying would provide billions in new money for financial markets, which in the past has been very good news for stocks."
 
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