JTH's Account Talk

[FAB1]

Yeah...Whatever! What is it about misery liking company? He's got it right...you have to stay out until a debt ceiling deal is done...period. Quarterly profits, GDP numbers...praying for support at the 100 day EMA...that $hit doesn't matter for the next few days. There is no debt deal to be had...that is the only story that matters at this point. Both parties needed for it are too busy working on proposals that are meant to please their fringe extremists or core base. Each one is going to see their bill fail in the other branch. Each one needs the support of the other. Are you that naieve (or obtuse) to think that it will happen tomorrow? :cheesy:Maybe only if we have a real bloodbath...something in between Lehman's last day and yesterday....a 4-6% one day drop. Sending the S&P down to near 1250. That would get the liberals and the "Lipton Party" down to the table and sign off on a compromise of spending cuts and tax increases. And if I see those bloodbath numbers by the last 15 min before our trade deadline...I might go all in and get a coffee mug with Big John and a big bounce on Friday. Otherwise...this is headed for August 2nd. That's next Tuesday. For all those in the market right now, trying to justify their position, just ask yourselves...how much are you prepared to lose? Another 4-6%. For those who refused to be PIGS and had he foresight to avoid this calamity in the making for the past few months, pat yourself on the back for doing a typical JT move by playing great defense ala 1985 Bears. Bu keep the finger on the trigger fr possibly the mother of all whipsaws.p,s,Sorry if I got too rambuctious on your site JT. I had a little help (see below).http://www.souverain.com/index.cfm?...Order Asc, P.ProductName ASC&ShippingState=DE

Just spoofing with the gal. Can't you recoginze sarcasm when you see it?

 

[DakotaKid]

I jumped all in yesterday from a 30% allocation. Now with this bounce, I'm trying to decide if I want to pull a bit off the table and protect it... I don't have any IFTs to protect for the rest of the month... decisions decisions...

 

[JTH]

Still a lot of fear but I think we will climb the wall of worry.

I happen to agree with you, though I have to keep that opinion close to the vest. There is an abundant amount of fear from the big traders the like of which I haven't seen in a long time. Everyone has an agenda...

 

[jkenjohnson]

I can't blame you - hopefully, the rally will wait for us (I'm out until next month). Try not to watch CNBC and the politicians, it is bad for your investing health.

I watch it more for entertainment than anything. I love to watch these politician's make idiots out of themselves.

 

[JTH]

I do watch CNBC, it's not something I recommend for the newer investors, but if you are capable of not letting the short-term news affect your long-term views, than it's not so bad. When I was new here, a 2% down day would freak me out, then I'd watch CNBC and they'd freak me out some more, then I'd sell everything thinking the world was coming to an end. The CNBC crew can't see beyond the noses attached to their faces, if you have a deep understanding of this, than it makes it easier to filter out the noise.

 

[jkenjohnson]

I wish I was down only 1%.:notrust: Got to ride it out a little longer, if I sell out now I would be looking at about 6-7%.

I feel for you. I don't mind being down 1%, I just don't know what will happen in the next few days (maybe nothing?). I don't like all of the uncertainty.

 

[jkenjohnson]

I jumped all in yesterday from a 30% allocation. Now with this bounce, I'm trying to decide if I want to pull a bit off the table and protect it... I don't have any IFTs to protect for the rest of the month... decisions decisions...

So what did you do?

 

[jkenjohnson]

I wish I was down only 1%.:notrust: Got to ride it out a little longer, if I sell out now I would be looking at about 6-7%.

Change that to 1.5% + the rest of how far we fall today. The market is now almost into negative territory.

 

[amoeba]

Looking across the broad indexes I see several signs of a tweezer's bottom being put into place. Today, we need to not make a lower low than the current low, and close above the previous close. If we can close above 50% of Wednesday's range, that would be a bullish clue. Regardless, anyone who takes an entry here is trading against an established downtrend.

Volumes are picking up - last hour may be important in whether the above bullish scenario plays out.....or not. We'll see soon.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Volumes are picking up - last hour may be important in whether the above bullish scenario plays out.....or not. We'll see soon.

Not looking good so far. There would have to be a pretty good rally, but that hasn't been the history recently in the last hour...

 

[Happy_Trails]

Honestly thought we would see some relief today. 5 down days in a row and counting, all bets are off.

 

[nasa1974]

Honestly thought we would see some relief today. 5 down days in a row and counting, all bets are off.

So did I . But at least some of the old timers can't come back and say, "see told you it was a dead cat bounce". No bounce. Just DOA.

 

[Taller]

JTH, As I said the other day, I've been in the G fund for 30+ years. As soon as I see the budget debt ceiling pass, that I'll get in the S and C, not sure about the I fund, I could use some help on the I fund. *I just want you'll to know me getting in could be horrible for the rest of you. The last time I got lucky I forgot my Viagra!

 

[DakotaKid]

So what did you do?

Kept the sticky pants on and rode. Looks like I'm about where I started the day - 1/3 percent. So much for a bounce! lol

 

[DakotaKid]

BTW, JKJ, If you haven't checked it out yet, this site features an Auto Tracker. Most of us post our moves there. A helpful tool!

 

[clester]

If you think we default, G fund may be best play. It pays based on yields not price. So if yields go up so should G. that's if you think yields go up. In any case, it is the fund with the least volatility.

 

[Bquat]

BTW, JKJ, If you haven't checked it out yet, this site features an Auto Tracker. Most of us post our moves there. A helpful tool!

http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_record_all.php

 

[JTH]

Well I looked at the charts, & cruised through my systems and couldn't find so much as a spark of hope for the bulls. Some days Ms. Market speaks to me with volumes of wealthy information, but today she gave me the silent treatment. I couldn't find any charts worth posting so I figured I'd show a potential Bull Flag on AGG with a Price Objective of 109. I really don't think it's going to happen if it did it would be a fairly big move for bonds and I don't see how it would be very good for stocks. As mentioned earlier today if you take an entry in stocks, your trading against what I feel to be an established downtrend. Many here were around in 2008 when we tried to catch the falling knifes, for the vast majority of us it didn't work out. Still, I happen to know this forum got older and wiser though the school of hard knocks. I doubt we'd let that happen to us again...

View attachment 14709

 

[JTH]

Was going to ask you...if YOU had been out of the market this whole time sitting in the -G- with a move left on the last day of the trading month (Fri) AND the C/S funds are all down 2-3% by 15 min b4 TSP trade deadline Friday morning (S&P 1265-1275)...would you roll the dice and go all in?

Or wait till the drama possibly continues next week?

Just wondering.

Under these specific circumstances at current prices I'd take an entry than look for an exit on a minimum 50% retracement of the previous downwave. For the S&P 500 that would be a minimum price objective of 1323.08 and for the Wilshire 4500 it would be 697.53 With new IFTs for August it's a risk I'd probably take, I definitely would not do this same setup on 1 Aug.

View attachment 14712View attachment 14711

 

[jkenjohnson]

JTH, are you still in?