JTH's Account Talk

[clester]

I'm thinking and hoping that we might rally off the lows today because traders that are shorting will want to be out for the weekend in case something good happens over weekend.

 

[clester]

It looks like agg has broken out to the upside. Maybe F fund is the play?

What do think JTH?

 

[JTH]

JTH, are you still in?

Not by choice.

It looks like agg has broken out to the upside. Maybe F fund is the play?

What do think JTH?

You know as much as I do, AGG has been pent up for some time now, this might be the breakout opportunity it's been looking for. Question is what happens if Congress does their job? My guess is both bonds and stocks will go up at the same time. It's really just a guess though.

 

[clester]

Looking at the charts, if not for the 1 big down day it has been modest down days and now we are getting the Friday bounce I was looking for. Question is, when will the market sell off hard again if the debt ceiling debate goes on next week.

 

[Uptrend]

You know as much as I do, AGG has been pent up for some time now, this might be the breakout opportunity it's been looking for.

Caution on AGG It has been under distribution since mid-June (with one bounce) with declining volume. TLT (Barclays 20+ yr treasury bond) is under accumulation however. Also, if there were a default, the yields on gov debt would suddendly rise and bond prices would fall off a cliff. Therefore, the F fund is a dangerous play until the sideshow in Washington ends and the dust settles.

 

[Birchtree]

We are under the influences of a secular bull market and corporate earnings are providing market support. I'm waiting on a P/E of 15 which would get the market SPX to 1675 - the question is when. I think within the next six months. Staying long and strong.

 

[JTH]

Looking at the charts, if not for the 1 big down day it has been modest down days and now we are getting the Friday bounce I was looking for. Question is, when will the market sell off hard again if the debt ceiling debate goes on next week.

That is one heck of a long tail down, it seems buyers are willing to step in at these levels, but it's too early to tell if these levels can hold up for the remainder of the day. I'd estimate it's a risk most traders wouldn't take since you'd be invested over the weekend...

View attachment 14720

 

[nnuut]

I'm staying in, many times in the past I bailed when things got really bad and the market went up 2% or 3% the next day! To hell with it I'm in!

 

[amoeba]

Caution on AGG It has been under distribution since mid-June (with one bounce) with declining volume. TLT (Barclays 20+ yr treasury bond) is under accumulation however. Also, if there were a default, the yields on gov debt would suddendly rise and bond prices would fall off a cliff. Therefore, the F fund is a dangerous play until the sideshow in Washington ends and the dust settles.

That risk has been ignored on a flight to safety, but if it was last minute deal, it may sell in advance.

I bailed on F-fund....will redistribute early when something is known.

 

[Birchtree]

I don't believe you'll see blood in the streets - every one and their sister is expecting just that to happen. Not going to go that route with a ferocious decline.

 

[Elgallo]

I don't believe you'll see blood in the streets - every one and their sister is expecting just that to happen. Not going to go that route with a ferocious decline.

I generraly agree BT however with what I heard on CNBC this morning when they were interviewing a Republican Congressman and when asked about why revenue increases were not part of any of their plans; he stated somthing to the effect that increasing taxes would not increase reveneue. I'm no genius but WTFO!!

If this is the mode of thinking we may all be doomed!

 

[Birchtree]

When you increase taxes people look for ways to nullify that - decrease taxes and guys like me won't mind doing some selling instead of hanging on to my capital gains. That's exactly what JFK did in 1963 to spur the economy. I mean why would someone get a job to pay higher taxes - best to be poor and get that earned income tax credit.

 

[Birchtree]

If I recall correctly Bubba did reform welfare - putting many NINAs to work for the first time. More employed people means higher revenues because they pay taxes. He was also responsible for a large demand in cigars.

 

[Taller]

On Monday if I do a IFT 25 C and 25 S is this considered 1 IFT?

Thanks Taller

 

[Birchtree]

Yes.

 

[Cactus]

Yes. You can divy up the percentage across all the Funds (including all the L Funds if you want) and this constitutes an IFT. All the allocations need to add up to 100% and I think they need to be in 1% increments. You can request one IFT per day.

 

[dannyboy]

On Monday if I do a IFT 25 C and 25 S is this considered 1 IFT?

Thanks Taller

***********
I believe that you may want to clarify for what month does the IFT get attached to?
I'll assume that you mean do they count for August IFT's? ?
I think that an IFT after noon today, Friday, 7/29: that will count as your IFT for the month of August.
Please remember that this IFT will not be acknowledged until after 12:00 noon Monday.
So you can change or cancel it all you want to up until that time.
Whatever valid IFT is out there noon, Monday gets executed and wave bye-bye to 1 IFT for August.
By the way all IFT's have to add up to 100 and your "IFT 25 C and 25 S" ain't? :suspicious:

 

[JTH]

Not much to report, I thought Fridays action was somewhat promising. My system the Quadracycle produced another buy last Friday, but since I'm already invested I'll just stay put. Losing 5.51% in July does not bode well with me, that's what I get for deviating from my goals. It's getting interesting, from the May peak we are clearly in a weak downtrend, but from the March bottom we are clearly in a weak uptrend. The battle lines are drawn, eventually there will emerge a winner...

View attachment 14748

 

[Nordic]

I generraly agree BT however with what I heard on CNBC this morning when they were interviewing a Republican Congressman and when asked about why revenue increases were not part of any of their plans; he stated somthing to the effect that increasing taxes would not increase reveneue. I'm no genius but WTFO!!

If this is the mode of thinking we may all be doomed!

A good many of the Tea Partyers sound like they haven't heard that we're barely hanging onto a recovery, and that deep spending cuts now may trigger a double dip recession. Wait til interest rates are forced to climb, then we'll be having fun. :suspicious:

 

[jkenjohnson]

Looks like there will be a gap up today due to the talk concerning the pending debt ceiling deal. Anybody in the G or F fund going to go into the S fund? My concern is - I will be chasing the news and may get a leveling out or drop tomorrow if I IFT before noon today. I am inclined to wait until Tuesday or Wednesday. I am just interested in other's opinions.