JTH's Account Talk

[DakotaKid]

I would be too. I considered entering at the time that you did, JTH. But I really try not to enter after a day or two of decent up days... Honestly, I'm nervous about tomorrow. But I guess I am every time I make one of these moves on a big down day. Time will tell I guess...

 

[JTH]

Hourly Transports showing the downside volume is heavy today, that's a good thing, we need to run out of sellers and the best way to do that is to just let them sell. This market is giving Congress a gentle warning and as such when they overextend they can snap back like a rubber band. I'm going to have to do a status-check on my systems, based on what I'm seeing, I would have to estimate today was a good buying opportunity.

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[jpcavin]

I would be curious to know what BigJohn thought of today as an entry. He's had a very successful and multi-year consistent strategy with down-day-dip-Ifts.

I was thinking the same thing.."What would BJ do if he had another IFT". :laugh:
Jason, I read your earlier post regarding how some people at the top of the tracker don't contribute. I can't really contribute because I don't know much of anything when it comes to market timing. The charts are useless to me because I have no clue what I am looking at. And the VIX, SMA, EMA, TRIN, etc means nothing either. I can look at the definition but I don't know how to apply the information. But it got me thinking. I can certainly make learning a priority and perhaps, I too can make a contribution in the future.
I am reading a book on technical analysis and creating spreadsheets to apply what is being taught/explained in the book. I am finally understanding the different indicators and how to use them. I am currently looking at the Triple Momentum Timing Model. Have you heard of it? It's quite interesting and has what seems (to me anyway) a high degree of accuracy. I would like to share my findings with you within the next few days and get your opinion? Would love to share with the rest of the board if it can benefit anyonw. I'm just a newbie and what seems extraordinary to me may be old news to many more seasoned investors.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

...based on what I'm seeing, I would have to estimate today was a good buying opportunity.

Unless you had already bought...

 

[jkenjohnson]

Unless you had already bought...

Ditto

 

[amoeba]

Hmmm: I thought it was a no-brainer NOT to go in the market today; NO WAY will there be a deal today, or tomorrow (not with friday and the weekend to quibble) on the debt, disappointing economics (durable goods) and more important ones to follow (GDP); AND - MOST IMPORTANTLY:

THE MARKET HASN'T GONE DOWN JACK!!!!

So, all that considered - I think there's a high degree of optimism out there, buying in, or holding (note the light trade the last 4 days, although not today), and I come up with a "what me worry?" mentality.

Once the debt deal is reached, I think selling may pick up as the market focuses on other things (homes, jobs, oil, etc.).

Still itchy - with 2 ift's in my pocket and no losses yet this month......

 

[jkenjohnson]

Hmmm: I thought it was a no-brainer NOT to go in the market today; NO WAY will there be a deal today, or tomorrow (not with friday and the weekend to quibble) on the debt, disappointing economics (durable goods) and more important ones to follow (GDP); AND - MOST IMPORTANTLY:

THE MARKET HASN'T GONE DOWN JACK!!!!

So, all that considered - I think there's a high degree of optimism out there, buying in, or holding (note the light trade the last 4 days, although not today), and I come up with a "what me worry?" mentality.

Once the debt deal is reached, I think selling may pick up as the market focuses on other things (homes, jobs, oil, etc.).

Still itchy - with 2 ift's in my pocket and no losses yet this month......

How are you doing so far this year?

 

[BigJohn]

I was thinking the same thing.."What would BJ do if he had another IFT". :laugh:
Jason, I read your earlier post regarding how some people at the top of the tracker don't contribute. I can't really contribute because I don't know much of anything when it comes to market timing. The charts are useless to me because I have no clue what I am looking at. And the VIX, SMA, EMA, TRIN, etc means nothing either. I can look at the definition but I don't know how to apply the information. But it got me thinking. I can certainly make learning a priority and perhaps, I too can make a contribution in the future.
I am reading a book on technical analysis and creating spreadsheets to apply what is being taught/explained in the book. I am finally understanding the different indicators and how to use them. I am currently looking at the Triple Momentum Timing Model. Have you heard of it? It's quite interesting and has what seems (to me anyway) a high degree of accuracy. I would like to share my findings with you within the next few days and get your opinion? Would love to share with the rest of the board if it can benefit anyonw. I'm just a newbie and what seems extraordinary to me may be old news to many more seasoned investors.

BigJohn would have taken extra high leap onto the diving board and gone in without a second thought. My strategy hinges on moving in on big ugly openings and out on big pretty ones. Just a guess, but isn't the S fund looking at about a .60 cent loss just for the day? Darn right if I had another IFT I would have been in...the only question then becomes, is this another 2008? I had to ride that dude out for over a year just to get back to even. I think if you are in the market the decision is just as easy...why on earth would you move out on a pre-deadline morning showing huge losses?

I don't mean to offend anyone either way, or to rub salt in anyone's wounds...these thoughts are just how I invest and see buying in and cashing out scenarios.

 

[Happy_Trails]

Gotta believe that S will bounce after this carnage. We are now well below the 50, next stop the 200. If it gets that bad, the 200 should act as support but hey, who knows, could be another 2008.

 

[amoeba]

Gotta believe that S will bounce after this carnage. We are now well below the 50, next stop the 200. If it gets that bad, the 200 should act as support but hey, who knows, could be another 2008.

5 straight down days and 3-4% and you call it a "carnage"? Nawww. This is pretty much noise. As for a rubber-band-like snapback this week? Could happen....JTH is right.....congress has been known to react to markets (ala PPT) but when it does - - - it usually takes more than a few days and % pts -- - which this is not.

So I doubt anything will happen until over the weekend. Typical crisis management. Doesn't quite fit in well with our IFT limits but thems the breaks.

 

[JTH]

I don't mean to offend anyone either way, or to rub salt in anyone's wounds...these thoughts are just how I invest and see buying in and cashing out scenarios.

Gotta believe that S will bounce after this carnage. We are now well below the 50, next stop the 200. If it gets that bad, the 200 should act as support but hey, who knows, could be another 2008.

There is one situation that could have me ejecting and absorbing a loss. In order for that to happen, I'd have to re-load up on IFTs. The ability to jump back in after a loss on the exit is crucial. As for now, I'm taking the pain, a good dose of humility never hurt anyone...

 

[Happy_Trails]

5 straight down days and 3-4% and you call it a "carnage"? Nawww. This is pretty much noise. As for a rubber-band-like snapback this week? Could happen....JTH is right.....congress has been known to react to markets (ala PPT) but when it does - - - it usually takes more than a few days and % pts -- - which this is not.

So I doubt anything will happen until over the weekend. Typical crisis management. Doesn't quite fit in well with our IFT limits but thems the breaks.

You're right - carnage is too strong. We may be due for the dead cat bounce though, we'll see.

 

[jpcavin]

I was dying to jump in today but I am also looking at some ROC measurements and the momentum of decline is not giving me any good vibes. I am waiting for advance warning of market reversal before I jump in. Hopefully it turns around for everyone's sake.

 

[amoeba]

You're right - carnage is too strong. We may be due for the dead cat bounce though, we'll see.

Maybe - but I don't think so - I think the GDP will miss lowered expectations, and Congress will not decide until the wknd.

If GDP beats and Congress acts before friday's IFT deadline, or some other such money-throw/can-kick, y'all will laugh at me all the way to the bank.

 

[JTH]

Seriously, how exciting is this? It's not every day you get to see a 2.75% down day on the Wilshire 4500, this is way-cool! I might be SOL in the TSP, but now I can entertain an entry in the ROTH IRA. This is a perfect example of why having more than one investing option is a must.

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[amoeba]

Pretty darn exciting:

One more down day, preferably a huge gap down at the open (like -5% or more); could make things happen in DC much more quickly....of course, after the debt is settled....there is the economy.

 

[Happy_Trails]

Seriously, how exciting is this? It's not every day you get to see a 2.75% down day on the Wilshire 4500, this is way-cool! I might be SOL in the TSP, but now I can entertain an entry in the ROTH IRA. This is a perfect example of why having more than one investing option is a must.

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It's amazing to me how quickly we can get this close to the 200. Just 10 more points.

 

[JTH]

Seriously, how exciting is this? It's not every day you get to see a 2.75% down day on the Wilshire 4500, this is way-cool! I might be SOL in the TSP, but now I can entertain an entry in the ROTH IRA. This is a perfect example of why having more than one investing option is a must.

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It's amazing to me how quickly we can get this close to the 200. Just 10 more points.

This isn't just about the debt ceiling, we are now pricing in a credit-downgrade.

 

[DakotaKid]

Yep - I hope we level off soon. Perhaps I should have clarified my dead cat bounce earlier. Even tho I've been here for a few years, I'm pretty much a newb to investing. Right now, I'll happy if there is a decent down swing that I can miss most of and ride it back up for a bit. I *hope* we bounce tomorrow, but I'll be happy if we slow down on the down swing over the next few days and then head back up after a deal is reached. Speaking of which, ol Boehner and his band of merry idiots sure are doing a good job of making me think twice about whether a deal will be made....

 

[amoeba]

Yep - I hope we level off soon. Perhaps I should have clarified my dead cat bounce earlier. Even tho I've been here for a few years, I'm pretty much a newb to investing. Right now, I'll happy if there is a decent down swing that I can miss most of and ride it back up for a bit. I *hope* we bounce tomorrow, but I'll be happy if we slow down on the down swing over the next few days and then head back up after a deal is reached. Speaking of which, ol Boehner and his band of merry idiots sure are doing a good job of making me think twice about whether a deal will be made....

Boehner and who else ? (hint: last name - Obama); and yes, JTH, a credit down grade would result ..... as well as many other ramifications if the deal is not reached.

That said - where else are investors going to put money besides USD ....they can't all buy swiss currency and gold.....or will they?