JTH's Account Talk

[FAB1]

I was dying to jump in today but I am also looking at some ROC measurements and the momentum of decline is not giving me any good vibes. I am waiting for advance warning of market reversal before I jump in. Hopefully it turns around for everyone's sake.

Youre not in yet?? Maybe too late now, could be a 6% jump tomorrow, Jp. Lol.

 

[JTH]

I thought today's action warranted a blog. http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php

 

[JTH]

Worth the watch

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-zS7omyA4w

 

[starfox182]

Great vid! Any idea if the large volume spike on the S & P 500 is buying or selling, what's your take? Volume was 35,368,910,848, where in the past decade or 20 years or so, that's as far as I went back volume was never over 10B or 11B. There is a similar spike like this in the Dow.

 

[jkenjohnson]

I'm not a gloom and doom guy, but futures are flat to slightly up today. Looks like it could be another wild ride - probably to the downside. Now, since I am expecting the market to go down, it shoud do the opposite of what I think and go up.

 

[KevinD]

JKJ - What are you holding up in your avatar? The winning lottery ticket?

 

[jkenjohnson]

JKJ - What are you holding up in your avatar? The winning lottery ticket?

My girlfiend and I were having drinks at a well known hotel in St. Croix and I was holding up the drink menu for Grey Goose Vodka drinks. I wish it was a winning lottery ticket as I would not be one of those lazy, overpaid, too many benfits, not sharing the pain, Feds anymore.

 

[Happy_Trails]

My position is very defensive at this point but I still expect a bit of relief today, not sure how much. Jobless claims came in below 400,000 for the first time since early April. There is more talk on the Dems side of President Obama using the 14th amendment to unilaterally raise the debt ceiling. Sounds like constitutionally, he can do this if a deal cannot be reached.

 

[JTH]

Great vid! Any idea if the large volume spike on the S & P 500 is buying or selling, what's your take? Volume was 35,368,910,848, where in the past decade or 20 years or so, that's as far as I went back volume was never over 10B or 11B. There is a similar spike like this in the Dow.

Very heavy volume on the Transports. It seems institutions sold off, someone flooded the market with sell orders. My estimate was the market is sending congress a message.

 

[JTH]

My position is very defensive at this point but I still expect a bit of relief today, not sure how much. Jobless claims came in below 400,000 for the first time since early April. There is more talk on the Dems side of President Obama using the 14th amendment to unilaterally raise the debt ceiling. Sounds like constitutionally, he can do this if a deal cannot be reached.

I buy that, it would seem the GOP wants to stick it to the President, so they can deflect the Tea Parties blame towards him. They've painted him in a corner, then they can use it against him during the re-election. And folks wonder why I don't care for politics?

 

[jkenjohnson]

Very heavy volume on the Transports. It seems institutions sold off, someone flooded the market with sell orders. My estimate was the market is sending congress a message.

For what it's worth, a lot of fund managers on various financial shows yesterday were telling their clients to get out of stocks until this is over. I don't usually follow their advice, but I have never heard this before. Even in rough times, it has always been "it is never wise to be totally out of the market, stay invested for the long term".

 

[JTH]

PNS took a surprise pop on its earnings report, I missed out on a crap-load of gains, ended up selling it for a 37% profit.

 

[nasa1974]

My position is very defensive at this point but I still expect a bit of relief today, not sure how much. Jobless claims came in below 400,000 for the first time since early April. There is more talk on the Dems side of President Obama using the 14th amendment to unilaterally raise the debt ceiling. Sounds like constitutionally, he can do this if a deal cannot be reached.

PNS took a surprise pop on its earnings report, I missed out on a crap-load of gains, ended up selling it for a 37% profit.

Only 37%.

 

[Happy_Trails]

For what it's worth, a lot of fund managers on various financial shows yesterday were telling their clients to get out of stocks until this is over. I don't usually follow their advice, but I have never heard this before. Even in rough times, it has always been "it is never wise to be totally out of the market, stay invested for the long term".

This sounds like a contrarian indicator - panic the herd.

 

[jkenjohnson]

This sounds like a contrarian indicator - panic the herd.

Agreed. However, I am taking my 1% loss and getting out until this debt ceiling crap is over with. It is too difficult to trade in this market. August will provide me with two new IFT's and hopefully a less emotional trading atmosphere.

 

[DakotaKid]

Well, what do you think of the action today JTH? Modest rally.... do you see much more of a rally in the next few days?

 

[nasa1974]

My position is very defensive at this point but I still expect a bit of relief today, not sure how much. Jobless claims came in below 400,000 for the first time since early April. There is more talk on the Dems side of President Obama using the 14th amendment to unilaterally raise the debt ceiling. Sounds like constitutionally, he can do this if a deal cannot be reached.

Agreed. However, I am taking my 1% loss and getting out until this debt ceiling crap is over with. It is too difficult to trade in this market. August will provide me with two new IFT's and hopefully a less emotional trading atmosphere.

I wish I was down only 1%.:notrust: Got to ride it out a little longer, if I sell out now I would be looking at about 6-7%.

 

[Happy_Trails]

Agreed. However, I am taking my 1% loss and getting out until this debt ceiling crap is over with. It is too difficult to trade in this market. August will provide me with two new IFT's and hopefully a less emotional trading atmosphere.

I can't blame you - hopefully, the rally will wait for us (I'm out until next month). Try not to watch CNBC and the politicians, it is bad for your investing health.

 

[JTH]

Well, what do you think of the action today JTH? Modest rally.... do you see much more of a rally in the next few days?

Looking across the broad indexes I see several signs of a tweezer's bottom being put into place. Today, we need to not make a lower low than the current low, and close above the previous close. If we can close above 50% of Wednesday's range, that would be a bullish clue. Regardless, anyone who takes an entry here is trading against an established downtrend.

 

[clester]

Good points jth.I believe, now that everyone is so scared about the debt ceiling not being raised, the debt ceiling will be raised. A contrarian view, if you will.There are other issues like eurozone and downgrade to us debt ratings. But most seems to be factored in now. Still a lot of fear but I think we will climb the wall of worry.