JTH's Account Talk

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I have a tendency to try and think longer term which means I try to anticipate a positive future. I'm already planning my strategy for 2012 to save on taxes. "Following the last cyclical bear's epic fear at its climax during the panic, a bigger and longer cyclical bull than normal is highly likely. Market extremes, both in technical and sentiment terms, are gradually erased by outsized swings to the opposite extreme." I had the audaucity to be a full speed ahead buyer at the 2008 lows and have come within $24K of making $2M off the March '09 lows. And I know there are a few more $Ms waiting for me - that's why I'm holding my base.
 
Bonds took a big hit today across the various bond charts I monitor, with a definitive break and close below the dominant rising trendline. It would appear stocks are confirming the exit on bonds. I'm not so sure what's going to happen, I've got bullish looking potential on some of my stock charts, perhaps a little too bullish. In a market 2+2 does not =4 and if it does, often times it means you play the other side. It's just a personal observation, nothing I can prove statistically. However, my systems have been correct this year and I would need substantive proof to go against them. As of current, I've exceeded my expectations this month and would be wise to make an exit. Problem is I'd love to start the next month already invested, so I'm on the fence for now. If I believe I can escape with a gain or flat, then I'm likely to make an exit tomorrow and let everyone else chase the rest of this rally. I'd love to hear your thoughts on my predicament.

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JTH: Thank you for tht Fibonacci Time Zone... Per Fibonacci, the S-Fund may go to 22.6X any time now. Time will tell us. :)
 
JTH said:
Bonds took a big hit today across the various bond charts I monitor, with a definitive break and close below the dominant rising trendline. It would appear stocks are confirming the exit on bonds. I'm not so sure what's going to happen, I've got bullish looking potential on some of my stock charts, perhaps a little too bullish. In a market 2+2 does not =4 and if it does, often times it means you play the other side. It's just a personal observation, nothing I can prove statistically. However, my systems have been correct this year and I would need substantive proof to go against them. As of current, I've exceeded my expectations this month and would be wise to make an exit. Problem is I'd love to start the next month already invested, so I'm on the fence for now. If I believe I can escape with a gain or flat, then I'm likely to make an exit tomorrow and let everyone else chase the rest of this rally. I'd love to hear your thoughts on my predicament.
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Well I look forward to hearing what you think tomorrow hopefully before noon lol. I was thinking I would maybe make an exit on Friday if the rally continued. Do you not believe it will go through Friday?
 
Jason,

I really enjoy reading your blogs. They are very informative and just a good read...

Thanks and keep up the good work.

Steve
 
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The right shoulder for the S&P is within 20 points of completion. If today starts to look like some champion racehorse, is it time for a short term bail on the S? Or after completion of the right shoulder, should this market keep on chugging along? It appears we are now off the bottom of the 200 day as well as the 50 day. So again, a start of a great day today means what?

I keep having this feeling at the end of each month to be out an in the G. Trying to save those IFT's. It has hurt me each and every time I have ignored it.
 
JTH said:
Problem is I'd love to start the next month already invested, so I'm on the fence for now. If I believe I can escape with a gain or flat, then I'm likely to make an exit tomorrow and let everyone else chase the rest of this rally. I'd love to hear your thoughts on my predicament.
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Yeah, I've played that game. Problem is, the pattern since March seems to be: you are better off entering the market in the middle to later part of the month and riding it out to the last day. Those who stayed in through the beginning of the next month, like me, PAID for it. :(

Of course, now that I spotted that pattern, it won't hold true for June into July. I don't know what I'm going to do yet, but I'm leaning toward cutting my losses and bailing to G before EOM. Given that I'm heading to the bottom of the AT, you will probably want to do the opposite of what I do.
 
Appatite said:
.It has hurt me each and every time I have ignored it.
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Congratulations, you've gone green since your last entry into stocks, maybe you're not up MTD, but you are from you're entry and you've been rewarded for your patience. People who get burned, often get gun shy and it can has a detrimental effect on their trading. It's one thing to learn and apply a lesson from a previous experience, it's an entirely different thing if you let a negative experience bleed into your next trade. Like I said before, if I get out it has nothing to do with what I think the markets will do, it's just some profit taking.
 
JTH said:
IFT 100% G-Fund EOB today.
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My plan was to do the same as well after some thinking since it seems everytime I make money I get greedy and stay in too long and end up losing all of my gains. Unfortunately time got away from me at work at it is 1:25 now...so that isn't going to happen. Here is to hoping tomorrow is at least a neutral or positive day and I am going G as well.
 
MaStA said:
My plan was to do the same as well after some thinking since it seems everytime I make money I get greedy and stay in too long and end up losing all of my gains. Unfortunately time got away from me at work at it is 1:25 now...so that isn't going to happen. Here is to hoping tomorrow is at least a neutral or positive day and I am going G as well.
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Sometimes those busted IFT deadlines work to our advantage, perhaps this will be one of them. The good news is I almost never enter at the bottom or leave at the top. :)
 
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