JTH's Account Talk

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poolman said:
Happy Trails is Correct. Read what he wrote in my thread. What he wrote is the problem.

You break the 200 You get OUT..................
Click to expand...

I think I will just go short on this market since it can only seem to go DOWN.

Oh, wait... I can't... all my money is tied up trying to make up for this "correction". :nuts:
 
I'm not a hero, if I truly thought these markets were going to escalate to the downside, then I'd gladly take an exit, absorb my -2% loss, learn from it, and move to the next trade. While my constitution is being tested, I am in no way being manipulated by hope & fear, this is just another trade and I still have plans on making money off of it. I'm still within my window of making an exit this Friday, but will make the final decision Thursday night & Friday morning. While I will admit this market's action has been frustrating, we can't say this wasn't expected. Sometimes market bottoms need to test our will, they seek confirmation we're in it and not going to flake out at the first sign of trouble. When you see these volatile overreactions, they always correct like a bungee cord, compressing & decompressing until they settle into their original form. We don't call them snap-back rallies, or dead cat bounces without reason.

In reality, this was a good day in the markets. WTF??? Yea that's what I said, it was a good day. The S&P 100 sucked azz, as did the Nasdaq 100. But the Transports & Wilshire 4500 held their ground, they didn't "throw in the towel." Just something to think about.

Soap box: Some folks like to sell on their way down thinking of capital preservation. That might work in an unlimited IFT market, but in your 2IFT-TSP account it's more likely to permanently wreck it, especially in a bull market. When you sell on the way down it means you're going to have to work twice as hard to break even. Don't believe me? Do the math...
 
JTH said:
I'm not a hero, if I truly thought these markets were going to escalate to the downside, then I'd gladly take an exit, absorb my -2% loss, learn from it, and move to the next trade. While my constitution is being tested, I am in no way being manipulated by hope & fear, this is just another trade and I still have plans on making money off of it. I'm still within my window of making an exit this Friday, but will make the final decision Thursday night & Friday morning. While I will admit this market's action has been frustrating, we can't say this wasn't expected. Sometimes market bottoms need to test our will, they seek confirmation we're in it and not going to flake out at the first sign of trouble. When you see these volatile overreactions, they always correct like a bungee cord, compressing & decompressing until they settle into their original form. We don't call them snap-back rallies, or dead cat bounces without reason.

In reality, this was a good day in the markets. WTF??? Yea that's what I said, it was a good day. The S&P 100 sucked azz, as did the Nasdaq 100. But the Transports & Wilshire 4500 held their ground, they didn't "throw in the towel." Just something to think about.

Soap box: Some folks like to sell on their way down thinking of capital preservation. That might work in an unlimited IFT market, but in your 2IFT-TSP account it's more likely to permanently wreck it, especially in a bull market. When you sell on the way down it means you're going to have to work twice as hard to break even. Don't believe me? Do the math...
Click to expand...

Thanks for the pep talk - I was getting a little weak in the knees.
 
JTH said:
I'm not a hero, if I truly thought these markets were going to escalate to the downside, then I'd gladly take an exit, absorb my -2% loss, learn from it, and move to the next trade. While my constitution is being tested, I am in no way being manipulated by hope & fear, this is just another trade and I still have plans on making money off of it. I'm still within my window of making an exit this Friday, but will make the final decision Thursday night & Friday morning. While I will admit this market's action has been frustrating, we can't say this wasn't expected. Sometimes market bottoms need to test our will, they seek confirmation we're in it and not going to flake out at the first sign of trouble. When you see these volatile overreactions, they always correct like a bungee cord, compressing & decompressing until they settle into their original form. We don't call them snap-back rallies, or dead cat bounces without reason.

In reality, this was a good day in the markets. WTF??? Yea that's what I said, it was a good day. The S&P 100 sucked azz, as did the Nasdaq 100. But the Transports & Wilshire 4500 held their ground, they didn't "throw in the towel." Just something to think about.

Soap box: Some folks like to sell on their way down thinking of capital preservation. That might work in an unlimited IFT market, but in your 2IFT-TSP account it's more likely to permanently wreck it, especially in a bull market. When you sell on the way down it means you're going to have to work twice as hard to break even. Don't believe me? Do the math...
Click to expand...



Great post JTH....... Thank you. I want to believe we are at or near bottom here but if we breach 1262 down to 1250 200 day EMA on S&P, there is big open gap below.. I sure hope buyers step in early today to hold current levels so that we can climb up from here..
 
For a while, the wall of worry was looking alittle higher than I would like. But that 200 day moving avg looks like a nice point to bounce from. So,if the slide continues a wee bit more today, I'll be throwing down some more $$$$. Looking for an up day tomorrow/monday and than cash out.... Good luck to all..., Later, TM
 
Birchtree said:
JTH, Please remember this is a family oriented board - not some licentious, liberal, gay sort of place. Your reference to 'suck azz' made me pucker up. (pun intended). See you in purgatory my friend.
Click to expand...
Lol! Good one birch
 
JTH said:
I'm not a hero, if I truly thought these markets were going to escalate to the downside, then I'd gladly take an exit, absorb my -2% loss, learn from it, and move to the next trade. While my constitution is being tested, I am in no way being manipulated by hope & fear, this is just another trade and I still have plans on making money off of it. I'm still within my window of making an exit this Friday, but will make the final decision Thursday night & Friday morning. While I will admit this market's action has been frustrating, we can't say this wasn't expected. Sometimes market bottoms need to test our will, they seek confirmation we're in it and not going to flake out at the first sign of trouble. When you see these volatile overreactions, they always correct like a bungee cord, compressing & decompressing until they settle into their original form. We don't call them snap-back rallies, or dead cat bounces without reason.

In reality, this was a good day in the markets. WTF??? Yea that's what I said, it was a good day. The S&P 100 sucked azz, as did the Nasdaq 100. But the Transports & Wilshire 4500 held their ground, they didn't "throw in the towel." Just something to think about.

Soap box: Some folks like to sell on their way down thinking of capital preservation. That might work in an unlimited IFT market, but in your 2IFT-TSP account it's more likely to permanently wreck it, especially in a bull market. When you sell on the way down it means you're going to have to work twice as hard to break even. Don't believe me? Do the math...
Click to expand...

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“'Over'? Did you say 'over'? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell, no!”
 
link to JTH's cardinal rules?

JTH said:
...Soap box: Some folks like to sell on their way down thinking of capital preservation. That might work in an unlimited IFT market, but in your 2IFT-TSP account it's more likely to permanently wreck it, especially in a bull market. When you sell on the way down it means you're going to have to work twice as hard to break even. Don't believe me? Do the math...
Click to expand...

Yup - I'm definitely one of those folks:

You told me to do fewer IFT's and one of your cardinal rules is not to average down. I knew that, and didn't do it, so here was my thinking.....


I didn't do this on the Tsunami - bailed at the first hint of trouble - was confident that the effects would be more lasting (market didn't think so), instead of waiting/averaging out - and got burned there. Then I averaged down last month, and turned a 1/2 point gain into a 2 point loss.

Now - this month. I was flim-flam'ed by the gyrations; the reactions; the pause in the ^VIX while the market did that low/long thing you blogged about, and then changed it's mind - went up, and then the volatility does this delayed reaction. Then today......whoa......chance to get out of dodge without any more damage, I think? Perhaps meet my goal for the month (minus 1.3%, total less than 5% loss)

I think wrong.....once again.......market goes bananas (selling) after the IFT deadline. And this is mid-day - with hours of trading left? Wonder who else executed sells based on IFT-like deadlines; if our forum is any indication, I was not the only one.

I hear you. I'm a good listener. And a bad follower - not because I don't believe you, but, since the rule doesn't "always" work, I try to pick each one - - -and, I'm getting worse at this picking with practice.

If you post a link to the cardinal rule's (were they yours?)- perhaps I can follow them for the next 6 months and see if I can avoid the last 10 ranks in on the autotracker. I hope that doesn't bring up another cardinal rule - to lower your expectations in order to meet them (done that a couple times, and failed again).
 
After crunching some numbers last night and today, I've given it a fair amount of thought. My original entry was off (wrong) because my range was setup for a different type of bottoming pattern. The type of pattern we're in now is not as common, so I don't give it the same weight. I did have it in the back of my mind when I made the entry, and that was one of the reasons I waited as long as I did, but in retrospect I should have waited a bit longer, perhaps 5-7 days longer. Having said that, I'm prepared to stay in much longer than I originally assessed, and I base this on my own personal risk tolerance.

When I look at the Auto Tracker I'm reminded on something. The people I look up to (both old & new) are all fully invested. That is like having the wind to my back as I settle into a nice but hard-sweating 10 miler. :)
 
Re: link to JTH's cardinal rules?

amoeba said:
Yup - I'm definitely one of those folks:

You told me to do fewer IFT's and one of your cardinal rules is not to average down. I knew that, and didn't do it, so here was my thinking.....

Now - this month. I was flim-flam'ed by the gyrations; the reactions; the pause in the ^VIX while the market did that low/long thing you blogged about, and then changed it's mind - went up, and then the volatility does this delayed reaction. Then today......whoa......chance to get out of dodge without any more damage, I think? Perhaps meet my goal for the month (minus 1.3%, total less than 5% loss)
Click to expand...

Just to clarify.. your monthly goal is not to lose more than 5.0% ?!? So say you lost around 4% each month for 12 months for roughly -50% in a year. You're still within your goal? Tell me I read that wrong Amoeba because that's depressing.

Like JTF said, I think you're putting too much faith in the VIX. I learned the hard way that it's no "smart money" indicator. It's a lagging reaction to movement that already happened in the market. So while prices were falling the VIX was still chopping sideways because their "experts" were still foolishly bullish. If you compare the VIX to S&P 500 (date for date) you'll see that sometimes they quickly mirror market movement and other times it takes them a while to recognize a shift.
 
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RealMoneyIssues said:
I think I will just go short on this market since it can only seem to go DOWN.Oh, wait... I can't... all my money is tied up trying to make up for this "correction". :nuts:
Click to expand...

Dope!

Mine too. I am now in it to win it.It reminds me of last years massive loss I took. The market Dow dropped about 700 or more. That is when I finally threw in the towel. Within the next two months or so it went right back up. Had I stayed in, last year I would have been at 15% instead of 7%.

I'm not bailing yet.
 
I'm estimating I may make an exit tomorrow, dependent of the price reaction up to the IFT deadline. A revised estimate over the weekend had me making an exit on Friday, with today's price action I can now afford to make an exit. I don't need to make a lot here, with preference of outperforming the G-Fund enough to satisfy my goals this month. If I do exit, I have seriously considered an exit to the F-Fund based on the rounded top I believe still has life within it.

Still looking for a minimum 689.95 target to make an exit.

View attachment 14234
 
JTH said:
I'm estimating I may make an exit tomorrow, dependent of the price reaction up to the IFT deadline. A revised estimate over the weekend had me making an exit on Friday, with today's price action I can now afford to make an exit. I don't need to make a lot here, with preference of outperforming the G-Fund enough to satisfy my goals this month. If I do exit, I have seriously considered an exit to the F-Fund based on the rounded top I believe still has life within it.

Still looking for a minimum 689.95 target to make an exit.



View attachment 14234
Click to expand...

Looks like you may hit your target today...... GREAT JOB!
 
Are you still exiting today? I just went in COB yesterday to 100% S and now it sounds like you are exiting again haha. At least today has been a neutral day thus far instead of a big negative, but then again the day is not over. My timing is never right, but I was glad to be in the G fund while all those negative days occurred. I was hoping to jump in now that things seem more stable...but who knows.
 
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