JTH's Account Talk

[FAB1]

Been missin me JTH? We have not crossed paths in a while

 

[JTH]

Been missin me JTH? We have not crossed paths in a while

I'm content with my current allocation, as of late I won't have much time with these markets until I've moved back to Texas. If anything I may pull out the first week of May and sit things out. Historically speaking, April is the last of the best 6 months.

You've done well for yourself this month, perhaps you might look for opportunities to pull back some of those profits before the next Market-Nun racks you across the fingers with her ruler. We are almost at 1230 & the risk/reward ratio is dwindling against your position.

In Mid-April, market behavior changed, we are no longer going to thrust forward, and if we do, it will likely be an exhastive thrust. the kind that signals the beginning of a correction.

Perhaps you've noticed 2 folks at the bottom of the tracker are jumping into stocks today? If anything this is a sign we are running out of buyers and it's time to look for the exit. Don't say I didn't warn you...

 

[FAB1]

Don't say I didn't warn you...

Oh, I have taken your words to heart. Like you said not going to be easy to squeeze into those top spots. I feel there is a little left to gain though and I dont want to be Out at the end of the month. so I will hang in for a while yet.

Today was a minor setback. I keep looking at that + 18% that could have been mine if I only stayed 100% S for the year. Few did though it was easy money!

 

[JTH]

Today was a minor setback. I keep looking at that + 18% that could have been mine if I only stayed 100% S for the year. Few did though it was easy money!

It's hard to beat a Bull market under TSP's conditions and we have just two folks are beating the S-Fund. I certianly don't fault your allocation choice, I'm just being sacastic with you. But then you know I'm not really suggesting your allocation as that wouldn't be right. Besides, for all I know your S-Fund gains could press into May.

2003 Annual return for the S-Fund, 42.92%
April 2003 S-Fund 8.31%
May 2003 S-Fund 9.42%

 

[JTH]

While the damage was noticeable, it was nothing so severe as to warrant an emergency exit from the markets, all systems go...

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[XL-entLady]

As always, thanks for the great information, J!

 

[JTH]

Thanks Lady, I must say I'm still waiting for you to make the earth shake...
I do know one thing for sure, the only bottom I play with is the one attached to my wife.

Seriously though, If you think the I-Fund is on sale, then I'd advice folks to wait a little longer and re-evaluate Greece, Spain, and Italy in that order.

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[JTH]

The B3GC-S will exit the C-Fund EOB today, this will be its first IFT of the month. The ADL is extremely close to triggering a sell signal, perhaps as early as tomorrow.

As for the markets, today was a relatively flat recover day, I'll need more data before I can make a proper assessment of what's going on. Heck I can't even find a decent chart worth posting, till then, the trend is still up.

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[grandma]

The ADL is extremely close to triggering a sell signal, perhaps as early as tomorrow.make a proper assessment of what's going on. Heck I can't even find a decent chart worth posting, till then, the trend is still up.

That's OK, Jason; we'll wait, along side you -

 

[JTH]

The B3GC-S will exit the C-Fund EOB today, this will be its first IFT of the month. The ADL is extremely close to triggering a sell signal, perhaps as early as tomorrow.

B3GC-S is now in the G-Fund. The ADL will exit the I Fund and enter the S-Fund EOB this Friday.

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[JTH]

Last week of April, (my most successful YTD system) the Big3GoldenCross-Short exited the C-Fund and entered the G-Fund. 1 day later, the ADI exited the I-Fund and switched over the the S-Fund. 1 day after, that the ADL exited the I-Fund and will enter the S-Fund EOB Monday.

As for my opinion on the markets, I'll refer everyone to my last blog Balance and firmly stand by it. We've been in a 3 month bull run and have yet to retrace 23.2% of what we've gained, yet if you watched the news last week you'd swear it's the end of the world, just around the corner...

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[XL-entLady]

Thanks for the update, J, it is always appreciated!

 

[airlift]

Lady and JTH,
Is your conclusion that the system shows a buy the S fund for 3-May-10? Thank you.

 

[XL-entLady]

Lady and JTH,
Is your conclusion that the system shows a buy the S fund for 3-May-10? Thank you.

Well, I would hesitate to speak for JTH, because he knows the three systems much better than I do. But I've been paying the most attention to his Big 3 Golden Cross system becauseit is the one that is most successful this year and it is somewhat similar to my EMA cross tracking. His Big 3 Golden Cross system went from C to G last week. I went about 50% into G and F last week. And will probably move my S holdings into G or F today.

But don't follow me, I'm lost. :cheesy:

 

[airlift]

Thanks Lady.

 

[JTH]

Lady and JTH,
Is your conclusion that the system shows a buy the S fund for 3-May-10? Thank you.

Not a buy for the S-Fund on that date. The actual buy signal for the S-Fund was back in Mid-Febuary. The ADL/ADI use the I-Fund as the default regardless if the other C&S signals are stronger. The I-Fund has issued a long-term sell, therfore the system rolls over to the S-Fund.

Some folks might think "why did you choose a default for your system?"
I did this because I needed to have solid rules without being open to human emotion or decision making.

These systems will be hard-pressed to outperform any Bull Market, however, they will out perform a Bear Market in Spades.

 

[JTH]

Thanks for the update, J, it is always appreciated!

Thanks Lady, are you still using Freestockcharts? They have improved much since our last talk about it over on the ETF Forum. They still need to add more symbols, but the features blow away the competition.

 

[XL-entLady]

Thanks Lady, are you still using Freestockcharts? They have improved much since our last talk about it over on the ETF Forum. They still need to add more symbols, but the features blow away the competition.

I agree wholeheartedly, J! Folks, JTH provided a good reminder. If you haven't checked out Freestockcharts.com you really need to do that. It's an impressive site. And the price is right!

 

[JTH]

Raff Regression Channels are great for identifing the median value within a range of numbers. This channel is showing us that over the last 3 years, 350 is the current median. This shows us the value of the number of S&P 500 stocks trading above the 50 moving average is priced on target. Based on this chart. I'm calling 350 the line in the sand, with anything below it serving as a warning.


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[JTH]

Somethings going on with several of the NVI indicators on my charts. They are deviating from typical price behavior and breaking out to the upside. Seasonality wise, within the month of May, the 1st week has the highest percentage of down days across the American Indexes. While I realize several indexes have put in what appear to be lower highs (and some with recent lower lows), I'm going to go against that and say we are fixing to have a strong move to the upside starting soon.

Best advice I have is if you're in stay in, if you're out stay out. Whatever happens, it could be quick and strong and hard to catch given our IFT limitations. As for me, as long as the Transports hold up, I will continue to hold this opinion, but if the Transports fall apart, I will run for cover. We need one more strong upside day to shake off the disbelievers and bring in that last volley of "throw in the towel" buyers. When the last buyer buys, I'll hope to be the first seller to sell...

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