JTH's Account Talk

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JTH said:
Somethings going on with several of the NVI indicators on my charts. They are deviating from typical price behavior and breaking out to the upside. Seasonality wise, within the month of May, the 1st week has the highest percentage of down days across the American Indexes. While I realize several indexes have put in what appear to be lower highs (and some with recent lower lows), I'm going to go against that and say we are fixing to have a strong move to the upside starting soon.

Best advice I have is if you're in stay in, if you're out stay out. Whatever happens, it could be quick and strong and hard to catch given our IFT limitations. As for me, as long as the Transports hold up, I will continue to hold this opinion, but if the Transports fall apart, I will run for cover. We need one more strong upside day to shake off the disbelievers and bring in that last volley of "throw in the towel" buyers. When the last buyer buys, I'll hope to be the first seller to sell...

View attachment 9246

View attachment 9247
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Well I have to say, at this moment in time I'm wrong. Of the top 4, only the Tran is holding its ground, while the others have taken on additional damage. Three Month SPX 23.6% Fib has been broken and we appear to be in a clearly defined downtrend channel.

View attachment 9252
 
Going against my cardinal rule of no IFTs the day of, this will be the second time I've broken that rule this year. This is a game of risk and not one I'd advice for someone closer to retirement.

1st IFT for May

25% F-Fund
75% I-Fund

Previous allocation, 25G, 10F, 65S
 
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No risk No (low) reward. I'm already there but considered the last 25% hiding in the G. In the end I did not pull the trigger.

GL JTH
 
WorkFE said:
No risk No (low) reward. I'm already there but considered the last 25% hiding in the G. In the end I did not pull the trigger.

GL JTH
Click to expand...


Thanks, it's a tricky play looking for a bounce in a downtrend. If we get the bounce I may take it and be out for the month. If we don't get the bounce I may double down.
 
what is the cardinal rule?

JTH said:
Going against my cardinal rule of no IFTs the day of, this will be the second time I've broken that rule this year. This is a game of risk and not one I'd advice for someone closer to retirement.

1st IFT for May

25% F-Fund
75% I-Fund

Previous allocation, 25G, 10F, 65S
Click to expand...

Come again? What is your cardinal rule?
 
Re: what is the cardinal rule?

amoeba said:
Come again? What is your cardinal rule?
Click to expand...

To make my IFT decision the night before, not during the morning after the markets have opened. It helps cut out emotional decisons and make you look out on a farther timeframe.
 
FAB1 said:
You just couldn't resist that deep dip action could ya?
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Honestly, no I couldn't, not after the -5.6% (15 Apr to 3 May) beating the I-Fund has taken. One thing is for sure, the tracker is going to see some drastic changes today.
 
There is a difference between investing & gambling, I am doing the latter.

2nd IFT 100% I-Fund

Previous allocation 25% F-Fund, 75% I-Fund
 
JTH said:
There is a difference between investing & gambling, I am doing the latter.

2nd IFT 100% I-Fund

Previous allocation 25% F-Fund, 75% I-Fund
Click to expand...

Did you see my comments about the I fund for tomorrow? I don't like it. But being it's your last IFT, maybe its not bad.
 
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WorkFE said:
I'll drink the coolaid but not like that. You is the Shiznickle:nuts:
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I'm running into the fire, buying on bad news, but I do have a mental stop identifed

350zCommTech said:
Did you see my comments about the I fund for tomorrow? I don't like it. But being it's your last IFT, maybe its not bad.
Click to expand...

Yes sir I did, your charts look great and prices looks bad. This is more share accumulation flying in the face of wealth destruction.
 
I have some biggy dollars shifting into the I fund COB so the lower it wants to close the better. I'd be real happy with a $17.19 price.
 
Birchtree said:
I have some biggy dollars shifting into the I fund COB so the lower it wants to close the better. I'd be real happy with a $17.19 price.
Click to expand...

Would love to see SPX 1150 tested this week, signaling the end of this pullback.
 
Came real close to pulling the trigger, but thought I'd wait a day or two longer. Looking to get it under $17.00. Now that will be nice...:D
 
I'm in a mood today, would love to kick something in the nuts really hard. Breast wear a cup around me until I start making money again...
 
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