JTH's Account Talk

[tsptalk]

Mr. 2000! Congrats!

 

[nnuut]

Congratulations JTH, I always read your posts and always get something of value from you about INVESTING in the TSP, that's the way it should be. Your posts have substance and are well thought out, thank you for your contributions to TSP Talk! Now, it's on to 15,000!:laugh:
Norman

 

[jdphx]

2ooo.... Most excellent Sir.


Always enjoy your insight Jason. Thank you.



jd

 

[poolman]

JTH,

Another valuable asset to the MB. I thought I did this earlier.

Congrats my friend.

 

[CrabClaw]

Thanks for all your insight Jason! congrats on 2k

~Chad

 

[JTH]

Thank you everyone for the kind words, 2000 post ago my market knowledge was the size of a speck of sand. 2000 post later, It's now the size of a pebble. If I continue learning at this pace, my next 2000 post may result in my head exploding, or you'll having me committed :cheesy:

Thanks again.... Jason

 

[JTH]

All systems go, regardless of Friday's price action, this is what can happen when the momentum indicators become overbought. It may still take a day or two for the the B3GC-S system to give us a sell signal if it does.

As for the system's themselves, here is how they'd stack up on the tracker. The tracker's current average is 4.95% so we have 4 systems beating the tracker average. The B3GC systems only trade the S&P 500, so I am pleased 1 of those 3 systems is beating its benchmark. As we know, it's extreamely difficult to beat a bull market, as evident by only 2 people YTD beating the S-Fund, so thus far I'm pleased with the results.

# 46 - B3GC-S
# 98 - B3GC-L Tied with the C-Fund
#102 - ADI
#120 - B3GC-I
#223 - ADL

View attachment 9026



B3GC-S
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[JTH]

I've already posted a Bearish Fibonacci projection in my blog, so here's a Bullish Fibonacci projection to balance things out. Neither a Bull nor bear be...

View attachment 9035
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[amoeba]

Ouch, I was watching the Asian market's last night (and their so called worry about inflation), but I didn't think EFA would take such a big hit today.

The PIIGS scandle, looks to have taken the biggest hits today. Spain's ETF dropped 2.40% & Italy's ETF dropped 2.69%

Because of the PIIGS inability to resolve, with more bad news yet to unfold, I have been unable to commit to the I-Fund.

Well if you think that hurt, don't look now (4/18/10 8 pm PST) - it's all red.

 

[JTH]

Let's talk about the dollar. If the starts are lined up, this should be the week the dollar hammer's down the markets.

Monthly: We can see indecisiveness between the 38.2% & 50% levels.

Weekly: We see a beautiful bounce off the bottom of the rising regression channel.

Daily: Last week we put in another tweezers bottom, last time this happened prices rose from these levels.

UUP Dollar ETF Hourly: In the short-term we still have us lower lows & lower highs.

EURO: Last week we got a nice rejection off the top of the decsending regression channel.

View attachment 9040View attachment 9041
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[JTH]

Some Monthly Fibonacci fun...

View attachment 9046
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[nasa1974]

Nasa..Just wondering..are you involved with NASA?..if so, what does the future hold for the NASA Employees out in White Sands NM, since the Space shuttle program is ending this year?...

Buster,
I have worked for NASA at the Glenn Research Center (formerly known as Lewis Research Center) since 1974. I am not sure what will be going on at White Sands with the shuttle program ending. With the new direction we are taking in the space program I would think White Sands will still be involved in something.

 

[JTH]

Watching the markets last night I was tempted to pull the trigger and bail. Thing is I'm out of IFTs so what would be the point of being stuck in the G-Fund? While not an all-out great day in the markets, I was pleased with the ending results.

AGG: Perhaps a tweezer's top marking the end of the up-swing.
View attachment 9059

​

SPX: A nice test of the 20EMA. Form what I've gathered,
most technical analyst are watching for a break below
1175's as the main caution flag. This is also the recent
23.6% Fibonacci level.
View attachment 9060

IWM: Another nice test of the 20EMA and a nice
bounce off the bottom of the rising regression channel.
View attachment 9061
​

EFA: The strongest close below the 20EMA we've
had since late February.
View attachment 9062​

$USD: I'll be watching to see if we break the
current slower-lows trend, or turn back down around
oncewe get up to the red regression channel. ​

View attachment 9063
​

 

[JTH]

As we approach May, I'll be watching the Bond yields closely. While AGG isn't as exciting as the markets, Bonds should start to pick up in mid-second quarter, especially if stocks decline.

As we know, we want bond yields to go down for bonds to go up. Thus far, on the 15 minute charts for the 5, 10, & 30 year yields, the 50EMA is below the 200EMA.

View attachment 9064View attachment 9065View attachment 9066​

 

[Bullitt]

I'm positioned for deflation, so yes, I believe yields will get lower. The fact that current conventional wisdom is telling us, "Yields will eventually go higher and inflation is in the cards", should be reason enough. In November and December 2008 when gold could have been had at final 'good price', deflation was all the hype. Inflation is not happening even though the powers that be are pouring water on the Gatling Gun to cool it off without shutting it down.

 

[JTH]

View attachment 9117

 

[Gumby]

Looks like a whole bunch of green on your chart

 

[fedgolfer]

View attachment 9117

JTH,

In the AD-Long & AD-Intermediate, what's the I-fund I3 signal based on, if you don't mind sharing? Reason being, I have a hunch we may be resuming the 10:30 AM - 12pm $ turn again, ultimately resulting in a reversal of this bear-flag continuation pattern in the $. It's just a hunch and I realize it's going against Oscar's call on the $.

 

[JTH]

JTH,

In the AD-Long & AD-Intermediate, what's the I-fund I3 signal based on, if you don't mind sharing? Reason being, I have a hunch we may be resuming the 10:30 AM - 12pm $ turn again, ultimately resulting in a reversal of this bear-flag continuation pattern in the $. It's just a hunch and I realize it's going against Oscar's call on the $.

What was Oscar's call? I've been doing life-cycle upgrades in my home, so I'm flying blind going into the markets this week. I have no love for the dollar, the only thing holding it up is the EURO and we can thank Greece for the I-Fund's ****-poor performance.

The I3 signal is based on the dollar, hence the reason the AD systems are not performing up to expectations this year. I1 is EFA and I2 is $DJW the Dow Jones World Index. I use $DJW as an overall health meter. Both indexes peaked on 15 April and have yet to put in a double top or break through the previous high.

Some folks might think the I-Fund is on sale, I'll just have to respectfully disagree considering we've yet to focus on Spain & Italy.

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[fedgolfer]

... cool, thanks