JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

For your considerartion, the I-Fund's Euro looks poised for a pullback. If so, that would be a bad thing.

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[JTH]

On the NASDAQ 100 it's surprising how much we've recovered prices since the 2007 top.

Left: The linear regression line going back to March 2009 shows just how severe the last correction was.

Right: From this last leg up, this is our first solid close above the previously mentioned line.

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[JTH]

IFT EOB 14 April

25G, 10F, 65S We have some mixed stories out there and I feel this allocation keeps me balanced, aggressive, hedged, yet ready to make an exit on either side of the tape. This is a certifiably crazy market while indicators continually diverge from prices, and weak volume leaves prices open to manipulation. Such is life when you throw away the book and say "it is what it is."

Edit to add: If you've seen my Transports chart previously posted, then you know I'm still expecting a pullback. However, what I expect, and what the market will do can be two entirely different things. If we do pull back from here, I may ride it down some, at least to the previous 26 March swing low on the transports.

 

[WorkFE]

JTH,
I assume, do to your IFT, you believe there is at least 2-5% left in the tank between now and end of next week.
I happen to like your balance just have not been able to pull the trigger myself in a rising market.

 

[FAB1]

IFT EOB 14 April

25G, 10F, 65S We have some mixed stories out there and I feel this allocation keeps me balanced, aggressive, hedged, yet ready to make an exit on either side of the tape.

JTH Good one, except.
This one just pulls profits outta the performers.

More S, more profit.
Higher UP the Tracker!

 

[JTH]

JTH,
I assume, do to your IFT, you believe there is at least 2-5% left in the tank between now and end of next week.
I happen to like your balance just have not been able to pull the trigger myself in a rising market.

Honestly I just don't know, but here's what I do know. If we look look back at the TSP.gov Monthly archives we can two find times where the S-fund gained more than 7% in March. One of those times had a -5% April. The other time was 2009 and April ended over 15%.

 

[WorkFE]

Thanks JTH,
You have a little more skin in the game but I feel a bit more comfortable with my current allocation.

 

[JimmyJoe]

I think on the safe side too. I'm 23% in the F and today's .12% loss, after doing the math, didn't affect me too adversely. You see I've just retired (I like to say I'm "independently wealthy" since I don't go to work at the office any more. I like to work the stocks though.) Anyway, being somewhat in the F fund lets me sleep easier.

 

[JTH]

JTH Good one, except.
This one just pulls profits outta the performers.



More S, more profit.
Higher UP the Tracker!

Thanks Fab


I realize my F-Fund allocation is not a popular choice. I made this decision based on the 10 year yield and the potential for a pullback in stocks. Now that I have my IFTs out of the way, I'm free to pull whatever I need back to the G-Fund, based on what happens in stocks & bonds.

 

[JTH]

The Transports with a 2.39% gain today.

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EFA closed above the previous 14 January top today.

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The Dollar gave us our 2nd 2010 close below the 50EMA.

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[JTH]

Top 2 show an increase of volume over the last three days, with volume breaking above its 50SMA. Bottom two show prices are "on target" within the linear regression channels.

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[JTH]

Picture of the Transports, NASDAQ, S&P 500, & S&P 600 Small caps on the 15 minute, 60 minute, and daily charts, show all 20SMAs > 50SMAs > 200SMAs.

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[Birchtree]

Now you know it's not in my nature to be bearish - but when the S fund breaks it will take 5% out of people's pockets in a matter of days. I've seen it happen in the past. I could be wrong of course but I'm staying light the S fund until the end of June.

 

[JTH]

As you might expect, the Top 4's 15 minute short-term charts show we've run into some resistance. Regardless of what happens, I wouldn't be surprised to see a little sideways action here before the next push higher.

Or we could tank...

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[JTH]

Now you know it's not in my nature to be bearish - but when the S fund breaks it will take 5% out of people's pockets in a matter of days. I've seen it happen in the past. I could be wrong of course but I'm staying light the S fund until the end of June.

Look at you old friend, you're almost bringing a tear to my eye. Are those sticky pants of your's losing their grip? As for the charts, I'm just showing them as they are, no hype need be added, it's already priced in. :nuts:

 

[JTH]

How sad is it when the 5 systems you created are doing better than you are?

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[Boghie]

JTH,

You also have to go with risk factors. Systems rarely deal with Black Swans. We have to. And, we've seen a few lately.

There sure seems to be a growing speck up there, in the sky, over there.

 

[Birchtree]

Keep an eye out for our old friend the Hindenberg Omen - you know one is coming sooner or later.

 

[grandma]

How sad is it when the 5 systems you created are doing better than you are?

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I have been watching & hoping you would post an AD/GC this evening! But I've just realized I can't do anything anyway - unless I start bailing, & I'm not ready for that! Ordinarily I would mix the Golden Crosses with the ADi, but I didn't think to leave anything in the C to give a toe-hold for using the >1% option...I'm out of moves. It feels strange to be in the ADi - middle vein!!

When the SS, the AD, and the Sentiment blend I feel fairly safe making decisions. -until I discover I can't because I'm oo moves!!!! :cheesy:
My position on the Tracker doesn't bother me - as others get a better position, mine goes down; my fund may have to last me another
20 years -
HOWEVER - my yearly % is climbing daily, and has been climbing steadily since I started paying more attention to how these different `systems' work. And that is what is important to me. - not to say I don't truly love looking DOWN at L and G !!

I much appreciate the time & study you guys do to get them posted!
You all are:

 

[Boghie]

I have been watching & hoping you would post an AD/GC this evening! But I've just realized I can't do anything anyway - unless I start bailing, & I'm not ready for that! Ordinarily I would mix the Golden Crosses with the ADi, but I didn't think to leave anything in the C to give a toe-hold for using the >1% option...I'm out of moves. It feels strange to be in the ADi - middle vein!!

When the SS, the AD, and the Sentiment blend I feel fairly safe making decisions. -until I discover I can't because I'm oo moves!!!! :cheesy:
My position on the Tracker doesn't bother me - as others get a better position, mine goes down; my fund may have to last me another
20 years -
HOWEVER - my yearly % is climbing daily, and has been climbing steadily since I started paying more attention to how these different `systems' work. And that is what is important to me. - not to say I don't truly love looking DOWN at L and G !!

I much appreciate the time & study you guys do to get them posted!
You all are:

Grandma, you might be the luckiest lady in town.

I just found the "Sentiment Survey", and it just turned to a 'Sell' tonight.

Odd, that I just found it. Been here so long. Seems to be a long lost friend. I never really thought I had a system. Just gut feelings. Just sentiment.