JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

Time to shake out some Bulls, but I won't start to get worried until we close below 890 with a double bottom breakout. Even then, I may use that as a buying opportunity.

View attachment 6503

 

[weatherweenie]

Time to shake out some Bulls, but I won't start to get worried until we close below 890 with a double bottom breakout. Even then, I may use that as a buying opportunity.

I have been watching as we bounce between 890 and 945. Didn't get to 945 this time, which could be a source of concern. Lower highs?

Would like to get in at 890 and bounce to 940s. With my luck I'll get in at 890 on the way to 666.

 

[JTH]

I have been watching as we bounce between 890 and 945. Didn't get to 945 this time, which could be a source of concern. Lower highs?

Would like to get in at 890 and bounce to 940s. With my luck I'll get in at 890 on the way to 666.

It is hard to believe we've been floating this market for as long as we have. All the good news is baked in, so I have no unearthly clue what is keeping us afloat.

I too would like to trade that same range, but I can't seem to time an IFT right even if my life depended on it.

 

[JTH]

For those of you who like to play with numbers until you get the outcome you want.... :toung:

On the 15 Minute P&F Chart we have a BEARISH price objective of 875

View attachment 6505

 

[coolhand]

Time to shake out some Bulls, but I won't start to get worried until we close below 890 with a double bottom breakout. Even then, I may use that as a buying opportunity.

You are probably correct in that the bulls have something to be worried about at the moment. There is still dip buying going on in some segments of the market and that's not always a good thing. Volume has not been good to the upside and this market looks pretty tired. I'm thinking we turn down hard next week, but won't commit to a target. Prefer to let sentiment dictate my next move.

 

[JTH]

You are probably correct in that the bulls have something to be worried about at the moment. There is still dip buying going on in some segments of the market and that's not always a good thing. Volume has not been good to the upside and this market looks pretty tired. I'm thinking we turn down hard next week, but won't commit to a target. Prefer to let sentiment dictate my next move.

I still believe sub 600 is in the cards, but hey what do I know???

Here here, just let me get out on the next bounce, and then I'll help cheer the Bears on...

 

[JTH]

It's days like this where my distain for the media is at an all time high...

Thus far this morning, the hourly chart looks bla...

View attachment 6533

 

[JTH]

5 minute chart with a nice test of its 50MA

 

[JTH]

5 minute chart with a nice test of its 50MA

Make that 2 test...

View attachment 6537

 

[weatherweenie]

Make that 2 test...

View attachment 6537

PUNCH IT!

 

[JTH]

Here is a response posted from my blog.

I'm not a bond guy, so predicting where AGG will go for the next few months is beyond the scope of my comprehension.

As for the chart, I've been watching 101.6 as an area of key resistance around the time stocks hit their March lows.

We can see that area was tested & failed in Jan, May & Jun. Finally in July we broke through and have traded above that level over the last 8 trading days.

In addition, the slow stochastics have been embedded to the upside above 80 since 25 June. This is telling us that this stock is gaining momentum to the upside. This is supported by On Balance volume which has been above it's 18 day moving average.

View attachment 6542

On the weekly view it's a bit easier to see where the candlesticks were meeting resistance @ 101.60

View attachment 6543

Over the last 15 & 45 trading days, AGG has outperformed $SPX, $EMW, $ EFA

Over the last 90 trading days AGG has outperformed $SPX

I don't know how long this trend will keep up, but as long as this market continues to falter, the F-Fund should be the better of all the funds.

Hope this helps, cheers...

 

[CapeChem]

Thanks JTH....I am considering a little F action....I look forward to reading your posts everyday

 

[JTH]

New allocation

10 G
75 F
5 C
5 S
5 I

I'm not impressed with the mounting evidence and think the risk out weighs the reward. I'll try to do a blog tonight explaining my pullback.

Good luck

View attachment 6546

 

[JTH]

Good morning

I wonder if the 38.2% fibonacci retracment of 846 will hold?

View attachment 6549


Recovery? :toung: From the Oct 07 high to the March 09 bottom, we've not even retraced 38.2%

View attachment 6551


AGG wins the 15 day price performance chart.

View attachment 6552


AGG wins the 45 day price performance chart.

View attachment 6553


EFA slaughters the 90 day price performance chart.

View attachment 6554

 

[coolhand]

There are warning signs aplenty right now. This market is not acting the same way it did prior to the start of July. I've mentioned this before that I think the game has changed. My buy signals are weak and this market got way ahead of itself as the media touted "green shoots". I'm taking a longer view and letting the "noise" play out. I think we hit 820 at a minimum on this down leg, but it could go much lower.

 

[JTH]

Yea it's too bad I wasn't able to fully capitalize on the inflated green shoots hype. Now the reality is that reality is setting in.

My energy metal holdings are back at ground zero 1 month before I was expecting them to drop. This doesn't bode well, but if we can't get 1015, than I want 777 so I can buy more shares.

 

[WorkFE]

Rock steady to the 777, not sure if I'd have the discipline to hold out that long (Looking at 810 as a reentry) but I'll be watching you all for inspiration.

 

[airlift]

Thank you.

 

[JTH]

Hey folks

I'm still out of town, but working my way back home. Our dogs appear to be doing well and it appears the Pitbull owner will be paying the 400+ vet bill.

I haven't watched the markets with my usual intensity, but I look forward to my home office chair where i can plant me ol azz down and grow some roots.

Never mind the old chart, but what's up with AGG? Could this be a sign of where stocks are headed?

View attachment 6586

 

[JTH]

Went 100% F-Fund EOB today.