JTH's Account Talk

2011 Personal Performance Report

1 Jan: Started out from 2010 with a 1G, 26C, 52S, 21I allocation. I had reservations about this allocation because I felt it was a mistake to split my resources across multiple funds. The reason behind my thinking? How certain can you be about a position if you're so inclined to spread your risk? If you take a position you should have proof this is the best position you can take, and by spreading your risk you're showing you have doubt about the position you're taking.

11 Jan: Exited to G with 1.01% At the time I made this decision both C & S had been down 4 of 5 days, and the dollar have been down 5 of 6. I felt the I fund had taken a downturn and I didn't want to get dragged down into the red. Turns out my decision was 1 day too early, although I escaped with a .43% gain that day, I missed out on a 1.15% gain the next day. I ended up sitting in the G-Fund for the next 10 trading days.

26 Jan: I didn't really want to enter the markets at this level, but I felt the pullback had already occurred and since the trend is up I felt perhaps we were ready for another breakout. This time I was 2 days early, as the Egypt crisis began to emerge. My first day in the S-fund I gained .41% and on the second day I lost -2.15% :cool:

31 Jan:
I managed to end the month with a slight profit at .15% not even enough to outpace the G-Fund or inflation :rolleyes: Today's bounce gives me concerns going into February, the bounce was very weak on the transports and weak across the S&P 500 & Wilshire 4500. The good news (if you can call it that) is I managed to meet my goal of starting the month invested...

4 Feb: Started the month out invested 100% S-Fund. After making a 4-day 2.13% gain I headed to the sidelines to rest out the oil-based news and wait for another buying opportunity.

24 Feb: Sat on the sidelines for 13 days, prices pulled back over 3% so I felt like I was jumping in at a slightly discounted price. Just managed to get in a lower price than my last exit.

28 Feb: Ended the month with a 4.71% gain, remaining 100% S-Fund. Bonds are tracking with stocks (who will blink first), I'll be looking to make a minimum level before making an exit. My personal belief is the downtrend has already began, only a double-top breakout will change my mind.

YTD Stats: Days, 28% positive, 13% negative, 59% on the sidelines. Best daily gain 2.13% worst daily loss -2.15%
 
Just an observation: This was a weighted gain across the broad indexes, the internals I watch did not confirm today's price action. I can't go into the details (it would take too long) but the bottom line is today was NOT an up day. If I were to believe what I just said, then I would be forced to conclude the bottom is not in, more downside to follow...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Birchtree
I'll be watching for that sling shot move today.



But will it be a whiplash move tomorrow?:notrust:

Hmmm - is there a official stance on what really constitutes a "whipsaw" of a previous day's gains?

Jus wondering if the losses have to be equal to or more than the gains to be whipsawed.

Maybe a dumb question - :D (never stopped me from asking before)
 
Hmmm - is there a official stance on what really constitutes a "whipsaw" of a previous day's gains?

Maybe a dumb question - :D (never stopped me from asking before)
Whipsaw is a movement in the opposite direction as before.
I'm concerned. This market has been bouncing and sometimes it feels it is getting close to falling off the trampoline!:o
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Birchtree
I'll be watching for that sling shot move today.





Hmmm - is there a official stance on what really constitutes a "whipsaw" of a previous day's gains?

Jus wondering if the losses have to be equal to or more than the gains to be whipsawed.

Maybe a dumb question - :D (never stopped me from asking before)

Whipsaw is a movement in the opposite direction as before.
I'm concerned. This market has been bouncing and sometimes it feels it is getting close to falling off the trampoline!:o

Thanks, but I dont feel that way Frixxxx, I think the trend is still UP we got some light correction, some funky news. Actually we are over 2% still below the highs around 7 days ago (before the dips).
 
Cold feet my man, cold feet.

Like this?

6a00d83451d6cf69e201156f7f6bf7970c-pi.jpg
 
Uh, oh... why?

It's a bit difficult to explain my trades, I'm not using a system or hard-nosed rules, I'm using semi-flexible guidelines. It is conceivable I could jump back into these markets at anytime.

Birchtree, I don't get cold feet, filtering out the fear is part of my normal routine. I'm comfortable with the decision to rest on the sidelines. Never fear, my slingshot is at the ready...:D
 
It's a bit difficult to explain my trades, Never fear, my slingshot is at the ready...:D

Good on you!

I may have bailed today too - BUT TSP bored stole all my ammo, just one bullet left before Andy gives me a couple of more.

barney_fife.jpg
 
I went 100% G today as well, COB today. Tracker is gonna be off though, didnt get it put in on time. Is there a way to fix that?
 
Way late, just a few minutes before my earlier post. Having to go into work late and make the last minute call to TSP delayed me from getting to the site. I PMed Tom and he took care of it for me, so it should be accurate on the tracker for today.
 
2011 Personal Performance Report

1 Jan: Started out from 2010 with a 1G, 26C, 52S, 21I allocation. I had reservations about this allocation because I felt it was a mistake to split my resources across multiple funds. The reason behind my thinking? How certain can you be about a position if you're so inclined to spread your risk? If you take a position you should have proof this is the best position you can take, and by spreading your risk you're showing you have doubt about the position you're taking.

11 Jan: Entered G with 1.01% At the time I made this decision both C & S had been down 4 of 5 days, and the dollar have been down 5 of 6. I felt the I fund had taken a downturn and I didn't want to get dragged down into the red. Turns out my decision was 1 day too early, although I escaped with a .43% gain that day, I missed out on a 1.15% gain the next day. I ended up sitting in the G-Fund for the next 10 trading days.

26 Jan: Entered S-Fund. I didn't really want to enter the markets at this level, but I felt the pullback had already occurred and since the trend is up I felt perhaps we were ready for another breakout. This time I was 2 days early, as the Egypt crisis began to emerge. My first day in the S-fund I gained .41% and on the second day I lost -2.15% :cool:

31 Jan EOM:
I managed to end the month with a slight profit at .15% not even enough to outpace the G-Fund or inflation :rolleyes: Today's bounce gives me concerns going into February, the bounce was very weak on the transports and weak across the S&P 500 & Wilshire 4500. The good news (if you can call it that) is I managed to meet my goal of starting the month invested...

4 Feb: Entered G-Fund. Started the month out invested 100% S-Fund. After making a 4-day 2.13% gain I headed to the sidelines to rest out the oil-based news and wait for another buying opportunity.

24 Feb: Entered S-Fund. I had sat on the sidelines for 13 days, prices pulled back over 3% so I felt like I was jumping in at a slightly discounted price. Just managed to get in a lower price than my last exit.

28 Feb: Ended the month with a 4.71% gain, remaining 100% S-Fund. Bonds are tracking with stocks (who will blink first), I'll be looking to make a minimum level before making an exit. My personal belief is the downtrend has already began, only a double-top breakout will change my mind.

3 March:
Entered G-Fund. The night before I had decided to make an exit, only if I thought I could escape with more than 1.37% This would (at a minimum) afford me the opportunity to outperform the G-Fund for the month should I decide to stay out of stocks for the remainder of March. It was a calculated risk that paid off and I'm happy with the outcome, having made .67% more than my lowest expectation. A 5 day investment in the S-Fund yielded a 3.04% gain.

YTD Stats: Days, 31% positive, 14% negative, 55% on the sidelines. Best daily gain 2.13% worst daily loss -2.15% Average Daily gain .13%
 
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