JTH's Account Talk

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OBGibby said:
Okay, thanks. Do you plan on posting that chart daily?
Click to expand...

Only when there is a signal change/update, since Point & Figure does not factor time, that chart could stay the same for days/weeks. But based on the price scale I use, I suspect there will be updates at least twice a week.
 
JTH said:
Only when there is a signal change/update, since Point & Figure does not factor time, that chart could stay the same for days/weeks. But based on the price scale I use, I suspect there will be updates at least twice a week.
Click to expand...

Great.
 
Latest Blog: Market Update - Statistical perspective

Rough start to the new year, I'm in and at the moment plan to ride it down which will suck.

For the S&P 500, over the last 240 months, 43 closed down on the first 2 days, with 3 happening in January with one of those 3 happening in 2014. Of those 3 occasions, the next day's results were flat with

Jan 2014, -.25%
Jan 2005, -.36%
Jan 2000, .19%


For PnF, lots of warning signals, but no price reversals

  • AGG - signals a Long Tail Up "This pattern is recognized when the prices rises 20 boxes or more. After such a steep rise, the first reversal provides a good trading opportunity, but the steep rise should give the buyer pause."
  • SPX/W4500/NDX signals a High Pole Warning "The high pole warning is given when a chart rises above a previous high by at least 3 boxes but then reverses to give back at least 50 percent of the rise. The reversal implies that the demand that was making the prices rise has given way to supply pressure. The pattern is a warning that lower prices could be seen in the future."
The key thing to watch for will be to see if this current column of Os are lower than the previous O-Column.


View attachment 31868
 
JTH said:
Latest Blog: Market Update - Statistical perspective

Rough start to the new year, I'm in and at the moment plan to ride it down which will suck.

For the S&P 500, over the last 240 months, 43 closed down on the first 2 days, with 3 happening in January with one of those 3 happening in 2014. Of those 3 occasions, the next day's results were flat with

Jan 2014, -.25%
Jan 2005, -.36%
Jan 2000, .19%


For PnF, lots of warning signals, but no price reversals

  • AGG - signals a Long Tail Up "This pattern is recognized when the prices rises 20 boxes or more. After such a steep rise, the first reversal provides a good trading opportunity, but the steep rise should give the buyer pause."
  • SPX/W4500/NDX signals a High Pole Warning "The high pole warning is given when a chart rises above a previous high by at least 3 boxes but then reverses to give back at least 50 percent of the rise. The reversal implies that the demand that was making the prices rise has given way to supply pressure. The pattern is a warning that lower prices could be seen in the future."
The key thing to watch for will be to see if this current column of Os are lower than the previous O-Column.


View attachment 31868[/QUOTE

"Hey! Lets be careful out there..."
Click to expand...
 
Hey JTH-

I am looking at the $emw, AGG, and $VIX today P&F.

Everything is telling me that tomorrow is very likely the day to jump back in.

What are you seeing? Tomorrow? or wait a day or two more?

Just wondering your thoughts...
(pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered- thinking tomorrow before noon is fat. later may be too late).
 
James48843 said:
Hey JTH-

I am looking at the $emw, AGG, and $VIX today P&F.

Everything is telling me that tomorrow is very likely the day to jump back in.

What are you seeing? Tomorrow? or wait a day or two more?

Just wondering your thoughts...
(pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered- thinking tomorrow before noon is fat. later may be too late).
Click to expand...

I'm in today with 10% I and 10% C. Starter position if you will. A lot of charts looking like they could fall off a cliff but also looking at some double bottoms and gaps that have filled. There's also a call that says this year could be a major reset.
www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/NYSE-Margin-Debt-and-the-SPX.php
Pretty interesting take but the future remains to be seen imo. I've seen calls for breaking 20k on the DOW too. I entered a small position today for a potential bounce tomorrow but I believe it's going to be a very shaky day. 1 IFT to add if we drop another 1000 points lol.
 
James48843 said:
Hey JTH-

I am looking at the $emw, AGG, and $VIX today P&F.

Everything is telling me that tomorrow is very likely the day to jump back in.

What are you seeing? Tomorrow? or wait a day or two more?

Just wondering your thoughts...
(pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered- thinking tomorrow before noon is fat. later may be too late).
Click to expand...

Thanks James, EMW on the default price scale looks to me like either a bull flag, or a consolidatied price range. I'll be posting a PnF Blog tonight, talking about range expansion.
 
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