JTH's Account Talk

[shitepoke]

JTH
You inspire me. "Lessons learned weren't applied" is a powerfull statement. I would like to "face my dangers" in '15...

 

[MrJohnRoss]

End of year report card: D-

I'm going to clear a few things up, acknowledge it publicly, then move forward

1) My performance this year sucked, I was beat by the G-Fund by .03%

2) I was invested in the G&F funds 57% of the time this year, you can't beat a bull market being under-invested.

3) For me, this really wasn’t a year about the lessons learned, this was a year where the lessons learned weren’t applied

JTH, I for one appreciate the time and effort you put into making your thoughtful prognostications on the market. 2014 was an aberration for you. It happens to the best of us.

May 2015 provide an abundance of goodness for you and yours.

Happy New Year!

John

 

[JTH]

JTH
You inspire me. "Lessons learned weren't applied" is a powerfull statement. I would like to "face my dangers" in '15...

JTH, I for one appreciate the time and effort you put into making your thoughtful prognostications on the market. 2014 was an aberration for you. It happens to the best of us.

May 2015 provide an abundance of goodness for you and yours.

Happy New Year!

John

Thanks everyone, this community has always been the best thing about this forum, the people here make it a pleasure to be here, making the work we put in well-worth the effort.

Lucky for me, for 2015, I've focused on time-consolidation, and have managed to increase output while decreasing the work load. I very much look forward to 2015, the pump is primed and I'm ready to forge ahead and slaughter these markets...

 

[JTH]

Warning: The NASDAQ 100 is on it's 3rd down day, and has failed to make a higher high than the previous high from late November.

View attachment 31812

 

[JTH]

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Warning:

Wednesday the Transports Triggered a minor Double Top Breakout, the 2nd buy signal in 7 days. It was able to trigger another buy signal because (unlike the other indexes) it created another column of Os before the other indexes did. After the 29-box X,1 column, it pulled back just enough to trigger a 3-box column of Os at O,1. From there, it triggered the minor Double Top Breakout, then pulled back immediately, hinting at a Bull Trap.

The good news is that it is the first index to have an uptrend, with 2 higher Xs and 1 higher O. The bad news is (based on current prices) it has already triggered another column of Os and will signal a Bull Trap/Double Bottom Breakdown at the open. I'm not sure how this will work out, if the Transports gap up at the open, it may avert the bearish price reversal.

View attachment 31813
View attachment 31814

 

[JTH]

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Since I've been posting mostly PnF charts, I wanted to put some things out in the open.

If you use PnF signals to make trades, you will not outperform the markets. I've done some rudimentary back-testing and found the results to be underwhelming. Under TSP's conditions, I suspect the results are worse due to both the IFT restrictions and the 12:00 noon time gap between IFT initiation and execution.

Here is a study I came across that confirms my own analysis.

Testing Point & Figure Patterns

Having said all that, I'm still going to post PnF charts because I'm not necessarily interested in the signals themselves, but more interested in watching the what the PnF charts offer, and that is the ability to watch key price levels.

View attachment 31815

 

[Bquat]

End of year report card: D-

I'm going to clear a few things up, acknowledge it publicly, then move forward

1) My performance this year sucked, I was beat by the G-Fund by .03%

2) I was invested in the G&F funds 57% of the time this year, you can't beat a bull market being under-invested.

3) For me, this really wasn’t a year about the lessons learned, this was a year where the lessons learned weren’t applied

Wow I thought you were talking about me except the G fund only beat me by 5.07%. But a new year has begun.

 

[JTH]

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While the last 11 Fridays do exhibit a positive winning ratio, the average negative gains on the down days are nearly double that of the average positive gains on the up days.

View attachment 31818

 

[kave]

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While the last 11 Fridays do exhibit a positive winning ratio, the average negative gains on the down days are nearly double that of the average positive gains on the up days.

View attachment 31818

JTH,
That's a impressive chart you got there and filled with useful data. You do excellent work my man! I appreciate your insight and due diligence. May the force be with you!!

 

[JTH]

JTH,
That's a impressive chart you got there and filled with useful data. You do excellent work my man! I appreciate your insight and due diligence. May the force be with you!!

Thanks Kave, looks like the positive futures didn't hold well after the open, bummer...

 

[OBXTrader]

How much would high futures/high open be influenced by payroll withdrawals/mutual fund buys on 31 December? Anyone making a buy at COB Weds into a Mutual Fund would rollover to today, right?

That's not a Bull Trap, was it?

Thanks Kave, looks like the positive futures didn't hold well after the open, bummer...

 

[JTH]

How much would high futures/high open be influenced by payroll withdrawals/mutual fund buys on 31 December? Anyone making a buy at COB Weds into a Mutual Fund would rollover to today, right?

That's not a Bull Trap, was it?

Sorry buddy, I have no ideal how the slush funds really work

 

[Mcqlives]

How much would high futures/high open be influenced by payroll withdrawals/mutual fund buys on 31 December? Anyone making a buy at COB Weds into a Mutual Fund would rollover to today, right?

That's not a Bull Trap, was it?

I can't speak for all investments but when I do a mutual fund transaction through American Funds it takes effect at the instant the money goes into their possession at whatever the share price is at that moment. If I do it electronically I know instantly (within 30 seconds anyway) what share quantity I got (it would show up something like 43.658 shares).

 

[JTH]

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AGG triggers a minor Double Top Breakout, breaking the downtrend and within reach of triggering a Spread Triple Top Breakout. The new Price Objective is about 1.24% away from current price.

Wrapping up the week, AGG triggers a Spread Triple Top, watching the Bond ETF TMF, it's at a major Triple Top at X,1 and has not broken through previous resistance.

View attachment 31827

___
Warning:

Wednesday the Transports Triggered a minor Double Top Breakout, the 2nd buy signal in 7 days. It was able to trigger another buy signal because (unlike the other indexes) it created another column of Os before the other indexes did. After the 29-box X,1 column, it pulled back just enough to trigger a 3-box column of Os at O,1. From there, it triggered the minor Double Top Breakout, then pulled back immediately, hinting at a Bull Trap.

The good news is that it is the first index to have an uptrend, with 2 higher Xs and 1 higher O. The bad news is (based on current prices) it has already triggered another column of Os and will signal a Bull Trap/Double Bottom Breakdown at the open. I'm not sure how this will work out, if the Transports gap up at the open, it may avert the bearish price reversal.

Trailed by Wednesday's Double Top Breakout, today the Transports triggered a Double Bottom Breakdown.

View attachment 31828

 

[JTH]

Just curious, is this chart easy to read and understand?

Transport trigger a Double Bottom Breakdown, so we now have a bearish price objective.

View attachment 31842

 

[OBGibby]

Just curious, is this chart easy to read and understand?

Transport trigger a Double Bottom Breakdown, so we now have a bearish price objective.

View attachment 31842

Under the "Signals" column: Green means buy, Red means sell?

 

[Bquat]

Just curious, is this chart easy to read and understand?

Transport trigger a Double Bottom Breakdown, so we now have a bearish price objective.

View attachment 31842

Should you make the signal date the same color as the signal as to know it corresponds with that signal. Also maybe use Event and event date instead of signal because I initially thought it was a buy F signal, since it was the latest date.:blink: I don't think you're calling for a buy or sell here but just a chart pattern heads up.

 

[JTH]

Great suggestions, how's this?

View attachment 31844

 

[JTH]

Under the "Signals" column: Green means buy, Red means sell?

Sry, I missed this post

Green means there is a bullish price objective, red is bearish, but I wouldn't use them as buy/sell signals, more as a guide as to the direction of the markets as a whole.

 

[OBGibby]

Sry, I missed this post

Green means there is a bullish price objective, red is bearish, but I wouldn't use them as buy/sell signals, more as a guide as to the direction of the markets as a whole.

Okay, thanks. Do you plan on posting that chart daily?