JTH's Account Talk

[BichonFreeze]

Yep

Can't go wrong there, IMHO 12% is sufficient when balanced out over time. Some years will be strong, others duds.

 

[JTH]

"Yawn"

Another boring day in the markets, who's ready to breach 1884?

View attachment 27897

 

[JTH]

TSP Quarterly Report

77% spent on the sidelines in G/F and 23% spent in the markets with C/S with an average daily gain of .05%

 

[JTH]

I can't complain, 5 days in the F-Fund & 1 day in the S-Fund put me at #81 YTD, 14 MTD, climbing over 400 slots on the Auto Tracker. Like I've said before, some of my best plays have been executed off the misery of others...

 

[JTH]

Today we created a gap on the S&P 500...

View attachment 27899

 

[JTH]

A bit troubling to me, today the NASDAQ 100 did not put in the stellar performance I thought it should have.

View attachment 27900

 

[airlift]

A bit troubling to me, today the NASDAQ 100 did not put in the stellar performance I thought it should have.

View attachment 27900

JTH,

You are on a roll! Congratulations for picking a significant bottom! Question, since seasonality favors April as a positive month, are you holding 100 S for most of the month, or are you waiting for a signal or combination of indicators to go defensive? Or, do your charts, liquidity, volume, corporate earnings and other indicators give you a sense that this April will surprise us to the downside? Tia.

 

[JTH]

JTH,

You are on a roll! Congratulations for picking a significant bottom! Question, since seasonality favors April as a positive month, are you holding 100 S for most of the month, or are you waiting for a signal or combination of indicators to go defensive? Or, do your charts, liquidity, volume, corporate earnings and other indicators give you a sense that this April will surprise us to the downside? Tia.

First off, I'm horrible at picking tops in a bull market, sometimes it's just so much Birchtree to stay invested. I posted earlier last week that I plan to exit on Thursday/Friday, this is dependent on the markets meeting my expectations. If the plan stays intact, then I may re-enter on 9 April, just before the mid-month seasonal boost. Traditionally we shouldn't be worried till "Sell in May and go away" but sometimes folks try to front-run this phenomenon, finding the right timing is the "secret" in the sauce.

 

[ravensfan]

First off, I'm horrible at picking tops in a bull market, sometimes it's just so much Birchtree to stay invested. I posted earlier last week that I plan to exit on Thursday/Friday, this is dependent on the markets meeting my expectations. If the plan stays intact, then I may re-enter on 9 April, just before the mid-month seasonal boost. Traditionally we shouldn't be worried till "Sell in May and go away" but sometimes folks try to front-run this phenomenon, finding the right timing is the "secret" in the sauce.

Thanks for the insight JTH. Since 2006 both the C and S funds have finished to the upside in the month of April, with the only exception being 2012. With those odds, staying in the market seems to be the way to go. I'm enjoying your new threads. They are very helpful and easy to understand.

 

[JTH]

Thank you everyone for the kind words!

My signature block has recently been updated. Now that the links have their own threads, they should load much faster than the crap that gets buried in my thread.

Cheers...Jason

 

[CrabClaw]

Thank you everyone for the kind words!

My signature block has recently been updated. Now that the links have their own threads, they should load much faster than the crap that gets buried in my thread.

Cheers...Jason

Thank you for openly sharing so much of your work Jason. It is much appreciated! ~Chad

 

[Whipsaw]

First off, I'm horrible at picking tops in a bull market, sometimes it's just so much Birchtree to stay invested. I posted earlier last week that I plan to exit on Thursday/Friday, this is dependent on the markets meeting my expectations. If the plan stays intact, then I may re-enter on 9 April, just before the mid-month seasonal boost. Traditionally we shouldn't be worried till "Sell in May and go away" but sometimes folks try to front-run this phenomenon, finding the right timing is the "secret" in the sauce.

I checked out the signature threads, very cool! Thanks! So... as for the Th/Fr exit and 9 Apr entry; thats based on the historical performance for a going in position and then refined with the current performance?

 

[JTH]

I checked out the signature threads, very cool! Thanks! So... as for the Th/Fr exit and 9 Apr entry; thats based on the historical performance for a going in position and then refined with the current performance?

Correct, having seasonality align with what you project on the charts is like having a tail wind.

 

[JTH]

Be prepared, we will close above 1884 this week, perhaps as early as today.

 

[Birchtree]

Well it's a pleasure to see you on the side of bullish righteousness once again.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Be prepared, we will close above 1884 this week, perhaps as early as today.

We already hit 1884 and are headed back down? What that the top for this run?

 

[JTH]

We already hit 1884 and are headed back down? What that the top for this run?

If it was, then we would have put in a reversal.

Watch the NASDAQ 100...

View attachment 27910

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Be prepared, we will close above 1884 this week, perhaps as early as today.

I like that prediction.

 

[99percent]

Be prepared, we will close above 1884 this week, perhaps as early as today.

1884 in sight. S fund kicking a$$. Are we having fun yet?

 

[JTH]

1884 in sight. S fund kicking a$$. Are we having fun yet?

I'm ready for the end of day rally, it's there for the taking, we just have to will it!