JTH's Account Talk

[Mcqlives]

I may have a busy morning tomorrow, so I'll go ahead and put in my IFT now. I am not calling the bottom here, this is more of an oversold bounce play, if for some reason the markets don't meet my expectations then I'll cancel the IFT.

IFT 100S EoB 28 Mar 2014

And another great call by JTH. You are on a roll!

 

[JTH]

JTH,

What price or indication would make you cancel the FIT before the deadline?

Sorry for the late reply

I did not base the IFT on a particular set of prices, it was based on the synchronization(s) of charts, prices, volume, indicators time, and the Auto Tracker (which I consider to be a system in of itself.) Sometimes if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, you just have to call it a duck. I will tell you that my next IFT will most likely be next week on Thursday/Friday back into cash/bonds.

Just for fun, today I expected the S&P 500 to close @ 1854

 

[Mcqlives]

Sorry for the late reply

I did not base the IFT on a particular set of prices, it was based on the synchronization(s) of charts, prices, volume, indicators time, and the Auto Tracker (which I consider to be a system in of itself.) Sometimes if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, you just have to call it a duck. I will tell you that my next IFT will most likely be next week on Thursday/Friday back into cash/bonds.

Just for fun, today I expected the S&P 500 to close @ 1854

I hope it's closer to 1860 (I want to keep that 20dma close) but you are probably right. Just for fun though....1856

 

[BichonFreeze]

[/B]

Just for fun though....1856

Floating at 1856 now....and 1 hour is left on the clock.

 

[JTH]

I'm not going to lie to you, I'm utterly tired of watching this trading range, but let's look at it this way, sellers have had at least 15 days of opportunities to drag this market down, thus far we haven't seen much more than a 5% decrease across the broad indexes.

View attachment 27842

 

[JTH]

This must be a tough 1st quarter, only about 300 folks have more than 1% this year.

 

[ravensfan]

This must be a tough 1st quarter, only about 300 folks have more than 1% this year.

Not exactly meeting expectations is it.

 

[JTH]

Not exactly meeting expectations is it.

Nope

I can't speak for others, but I've always thought 12% a year was the standard expectation.

 

[JTH]

For the S&P 500, price has been above the 200 SMA for 341 days, this has been the longest number of days since the 30 July 1996 to 26 Aug 1998 bull run which was 525 days.

 

[JTH]

Deleted

 

[JTH]

This Tuesday & Wednesday are the first 2 days of April and have a strong positive bias.

View attachment 27880

 

[bmneveu]

This Tuesday & Wednesday are the first 2 days of April and have a strong positive bias.

View attachment 27880

I like the sound of that!

 

[Sensei]

Unfortunately, though, I believe the first days of each month so far this year have been significantly in the red, thwarting the strategy of being in on day one. If you held for a few more days, you'd have earned back the losses. Hopefully the streak will break on Tuesday...

 

[ravensfan]

Unfortunately, though, I believe the first days of each month so far this year have been significantly in the red, thwarting the strategy of being in on day one. If you held for a few more days, you'd have earned back the losses. Hopefully the streak will break on Tuesday...

Confucius say: "Man who is out on day one will soon be crying in his rice"

 

[BichonFreeze]

Nope

I can't speak for others, but I've always thought 12% a year was the standard expectation.

12% Annual Returns?

 

[Sensei]

Confucius say: "Man who is out on day one will soon be crying in his rice"

Don't quit your day job.

 

[ravensfan]

Don't quit your day job.

Roger that! All in good fun though.

 

[JTH]

12% Annual Returns?

Yep

 

[JTH]

Keep an eye on TZA (the inverse small cap ETF) if it breaks above 15.85 with volume conviction, then I'd expect the markets to breakdown. Until that time, IMHO the right thing within TSP is to hold the position you're in.[/ATTACH]

Adding to today's earlier post, it looks like 15.95 is the new line in the sand, take notice of the W-pattern[/ATTACH]

Pushing the line in the sand (support) to 16.31 with resistance @ 16.77 I'd watch these levels for inverse confirmation of market direction.[/ATTACH]

Once again, watching the 15.85 level, anything below 15.85 should be good for the bulls

View attachment 27891

 

[JTH]

Keep an eye on TZA (the inverse small cap ETF) if it breaks above 15.85 with volume conviction, then I'd expect the markets to breakdown. Until that time, IMHO the right thing within TSP is to hold the position you're in.[/ATTACH]

Adding to today's earlier post, it looks like 15.95 is the new line in the sand, take notice of the W-pattern[/ATTACH]

Pushing the line in the sand (support) to 16.31 with resistance @ 16.77 I'd watch these levels for inverse confirmation of market direction.[/ATTACH]

Once again, watching the 15.85 level, anything below should be good for the bulls

View attachment 27891