JTH's Account Talk

[DreamboatAnnie]

Thank you. Within the realm of TSP that's a tough question to answer, it is dependent on your entry, your IFT status, where price is within the channel and the point-width of the channel. Let's estimate the current price is 1838 and look at the percentages in relation to the Fib-Channel levels. If you had a bad entry @ 1838, then you're risk is weighted to the downside (the downside potential weighs more than the upside potential.)

1838 to 100% @ 1850 is 1.03%
1838 to 61.8% @ 1832 is -.16%
1838 to 38.2% @ 1818 is -.92%
1838 to 0% @ 1796 is -2.28%

Conversely, if you had a better entry you'd have more room to accept more risk. The trick is to sell just before the buyers are exhausted and to buy just before the sellers are exhausted. This isn't easy to do within the confines of TSP, but if you keep an eye out for spikes in volume, watch for overbought/oversold conditions on the bollinger bands, channels and Fibonacci levels and do this across the major indexes, it can at the very least keep you out of trouble. :suspicious:

Thanks...I got in around 1799 but not by much...just 10% on 2/10. So looks like not much at risk per your analysis.

Looking at SPX (link below). Looks like MACD is still positive and RSI not overbought, but full stochastic is looking close to possibly going downward..not enough to know. With only one IFT left, will probably stay in for longer term, but would like to get out of F. Price on SPX is above mid-point on Bollinger bands..and even above 10 day EMA....so looks good so far...but BBs are wide so I should think there could be a little consolidation before they contract..hoping that is to the upside. Wish I'd gone in a but more but risky just coming out of the January lows.

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[EricDeLee]

Where does the w4500 go from here?
Does it break through that 1009 mark to set a newer limit? Or does it act like the past recently and give back 3/4 of yesterday's gains today? Futures are bad right now... So I am assuming losses are possibly on the way

i also noticed a lot of people going to G fund for safety. Is it fear or the right thing to do? I hate to jump out of this market, as the fear is not being able to jump back in. Already did that a few times this year.

 

[Geaux4it]

Thank you kindly for Charts 101. Taking the time to tutor us is remarkable.

Thanks again

-Geaux

 

[BichonFreeze]

Where does the w4500 go from here?

It depends on who you ask. As someone who moved my funds into the G-Fund yesterday, I personally believe that the risk of a decline is a bit more than an increase. The market is still very volatile, mostly stemming from whatever daily tidbit of news leaks that sways market sentiment towards believing the FED is continuing tapering or not. Today we have the Fed's January meeting notes at 2 p.m. and Mariott's earnings after close, neither should impact the market too much. The big day should be tomorrow with the weekly jobs reporting and Wal-Mart's earnings.

In any event, if you're worried about getting back into the market at a higher price, in the long run, you can't go wrong holding in the S fund, but you'll have to stick with holding. The problem is with this market volatility holding is not easy.

 

[JTH]

Where does the w4500 go from here?
Does it break through that 1009 mark to set a newer limit? Or does it act like the past recently and give back 3/4 of yesterday's gains today? Futures are bad right now... So I am assuming losses are possibly on the way

i also noticed a lot of people going to G fund for safety. Is it fear or the right thing to do? I hate to jump out of this market, as the fear is not being able to jump back in. Already did that a few times this year.

Based on seasonality, technical analysis and sentiment, I'd estimate we should pullback. I don't consider the Auto Tracker to be as reliable as it once was, I use to make some great moves going oppoiste the Auto-Tracker-Herd but now I have no idea who follows the Intrepid Timer. If I trade against the herd am I trading against someone with a PS who has a proven long-term track record, more expierence, more tools and the hot hand? 50 people moving into the G-Fund could be just 1 person making the decision, at times this makes it difficult for me to not second guess my work.

 

[Cactus]

I thought those with a Premium Service subscription didn't show up on the AT. I noticed last year we had about 1000 on the AT but the End-of-Year results had about 1300. I assumed the extra 300 were PS subscribers. Am I wrong? If so maybe we need an AT of non-subscribers.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Based on seasonality, technical analysis and sentiment, I'd estimate we should pullback. I don't consider the Auto Tracker to be as reliable as it once was, I use to make some great moves going oppoiste the Auto-Tracker-Herd but now I have no idea who follows the Intrepid Timer. If I trade against the herd am I trading against someone with a PS who has a proven long-term track record, more expierence, more tools and the hot hand? 50 people moving into the G-Fund could be just 1 person making the decision, at times this makes it difficult for me to not second guess my work.

You are making me feel bad for having a good return...........

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

I've been mentioning the gap fill @ 1844.91

Here is the 1-minute chart showing today we breached and rejected this area 6 times...

Looks like it is now hitting your target, good call!

 

[Birchtree]

JTH,

The longer you sit the closer I'm going to git.

 

[JTH]

I thought those with a Premium Service subscription didn't show up on the AT. I noticed last year we had about 1000 on the AT but the End-of-Year results had about 1300. I assumed the extra 300 were PS subscribers. Am I wrong? If so maybe we need an AT of non-subscribers.

You could be right, I honestly don't now how those folks are tracked?

You are making me feel bad for having a good return...........

I clearly have an advantage, if my IFT timing sucks then folks just stop reading my thread, while you have to listen to people whine if the buy & holders get ahead .25% :cheesy: I should also add that IMHO this tracker-herd is much wiser than they were pre-March 2009. There's such a wealth of information thoroughout the forum, more folks are well-read and the competition is getting tougher. I don't even look at who's IFT'd anymore becuase I know some of those IFTs may be based on information I provide, therfore I consider the data scewed.

 

[MaStA]

You could be right, I honestly don't now how those folks are tracked?

I think premium members are tracked, but their moves are delayed.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I think premium members are tracked, but their moves are delayed.

Yes I think that is the case and I really REALLY do not like that they are tracked together with everyone who is not using a premium service. They should at least be identified as such with an asterisk or note or something so we can ignore their allocations ---since that information is false.

It may have been okay in the past, but at this point IMHO it does us a dissservice and especially for those of us who are learning how to navigate the market and even the website-----false information should not ever be posted. Yes...I know it says they are mixed in there, but really what the good is the tracker if we cannot compare ourselves to others when we don't know which ones are on an equal footing with us. Makes me think I would like to quit the tracker all together since it is not reliable or a good source of actual true information.. gotta sit there an try to figure out whose returns/allocations to ignore.

Plus you can't look at the technical indicators for the date they made changes to see what they might have thought was important for entry or exit. If you see someone doing well, its good to see what their basis for their changes were. Again, its hard to decide what to rely on to do a review because can't figure out what is true and not true on the tracker. So its Useless!!!

 

[Birchtree]

DBAnnie, don't worry so much. In the end of all things considered it matters not. We all have the same opportunity and premium services don't own any edge - they are just another opinion. Stay true to yourself and flourish.

 

[TSP-roulette]

Point well made DAnnie. Everyone in PS's raise their hand.

 

[slayer72]

I kept seeing the same person changing their tracker recently so when I looked at their trades they have eight for this month alone,,,I dont get that many TSP trades do you?

 

[Birchtree]

They are more than likely bleeding off shares going back into the G fund - you can do that as often as you like.

 

[slayer72]

Thats what it is,, daily one percent moves, its nice to have time on your hands.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Yes I think that is the case and I really REALLY do not like that they are tracked together with everyone who is not using a premium service. They should at least be identified as such with an asterisk or note or something so we can ignore their allocations ---since that information is false.

It may have been okay in the past, but at this point IMHO it does us a dissservice and especially for those of us who are learning how to navigate the market and even the website-----false information should not ever be posted. Yes...I know it says they are mixed in there, but really what the good is the tracker if we cannot compare ourselves to others when we don't know which ones are on an equal footing with us. Makes me think I would like to quit the tracker all together since it is not reliable or a good source of actual true information.. gotta sit there an try to figure out whose returns/allocations to ignore.

Plus you can't look at the technical indicators for the date they made changes to see what they might have thought was important for entry or exit. If you see someone doing well, its good to see what their basis for their changes were. Again, its hard to decide what to rely on to do a review because can't figure out what is true and not true on the tracker. So its Useless!!!

Just because someone might be a premium service member, it doesn't mean they are following that service exactly. The premium services have been around for quite some time and it is just now a problem? I understand your points, but the tracker was never really meant to be a competition and to be used as information to make one's IFT decisions by. It was meant to hold people accountable and to give one an opportunity to see what their daily return for TSP is. Otherwise, we have to wait until our PIPs are posted once a month. If JTH or anyone else that wasn't a premium member was at the top of the tracker and a lot of people started following them, then that would also skew what you say you are using the tracker for right? Every year there will be a different "leader" as everyone will have their ups and downs. If one constantly just makes their IFT decisions on whoever is at the top at the time, they'll likely start following someone just as they are about to have one their "down" periods. For this reason alone, I don't recommend using the tracker for anything other than to see how you are doing. Just my opinion of course.

 

[JTH]

I happen to agree with IT, the AT is really just a useful tool to compare our individual performance with others. Without it, we would have no way to validate if folks were telling the truth. We've seen some questionable members in the past claiming to have a "system" that outperforms all others. Then, the AT reveals the flaws in their systems and all of a sudden they stop posting and magically disappear...

I will admit I do not enjoy it when someone goes premium, because I'm a cheap bastard who wants his entitlements for free. At the same time, if we truly want to lift ourselves out of poverty for the betterment of all, then we should encourage all aspects of capitalization. If Tom and IT invest time, money and equipment, then they should be able to earn income from it. Just because I might invest an equal amount of time (for free) does not mean that I should hate on those who try to monetize their efforts.

The end result is we should each be trying to earn income for ourselves & family first, as a result, the country as a whole will benefit from that effort, so in the end everyone wins.

 

[Birchtree]

I need to stand corrected regarding my statement about returning to the G fund - my wife's FRS program allows those types of moves back to their money market fund.