JTH's Account Talk

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Down days across the markets, even AGG didn't concur. This is tough, I'll have to really go over the charts hard tonight.
 
Lobo said:
What are "the right circumstances" for tomorrow, in your opinion? :)
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That's a darn good question and when I ask myself this I can't seem to find the answer. Sometimes you know it when you see it but right now I don't see anything worth an IFT. Perhaps tomorrow will reveal something. As for the systems they are in-between signals right now.
 
JTH: I like your crystal ball, however, it seems your crystal ball is a little cloudy. Please let me clean it for you. If tomorrow is bullish I will wait till Monday. If tomorrow is flat or low I will pull the trigger and I will go into the S-Fund. I will be on the S-Fund for sure by end of day (EOD) Monday regarless. The Sentiment Survey signal BUY BUY BUY... and Full Moon is in place...:)
 
JTH said:
SPX hit my expectations but a 20 point projection within a 130 point range is hardly a real challenge. At these levels I could imagine making an IFT if the right circumstances played out tomorrow. What are the others are you referring too?
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there is the full moon tspintel keeps talking bout.:D
 
As I've mentioned before I have in fact backtested this just to verify what I already felt I knew. Full Moon carries no weight within most TA circles. The fact I'm a Leo means nothing to me, nor if I'm an Ox, nor if I hang a horse shoe over my door or avoid cracks in the sidewalk. Sure it might be somewhat humorous, but I would NEVER advise someone to make an investment based on the full moon.
 
This debt ceiling debacle has me spooked. Maybe it doesn't matter? Any thoughts? Your 16%+ has my 8%+ beat by a factor of two, so I tend to lean toward your analysis. I'm not getting in today either.
 
jkenjohnson said:
This debt ceiling debacle has me spooked. Maybe it doesn't matter? Any thoughts? Your 16%+ has my 8%+ beat by a factor of two, so I tend to lean toward your analysis. I'm not getting in today either.
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The Moody story was old news, it's an idle political threat to congress to "get the job done." Moody was wrong on the housing bubble and now they have to over-correct their ratings to appease investors. The 2 Aug debt ceiling is not fully priced in yet. Right now the markets are dealing with the more important issue of 1 Euro currency with a multitude of fiscal policies spread out among the PIIGS.

I view the markets as an emotionally charged group of toddlers who are willing to throw a temper tantrum if they don't get their way. They want instant gratification with QE3 and are trying to force this spending policy into reality when in fact it's not needed. The market and economy should be two seperate issues, but right now the market appears to be painting the economy into a corner. Here is the real problem, the market is not willing to participate without support from the federal economy. Eventually the feds will either run out of support or drive the economy into the ground with their policy of fiscal destruction.

I'll be honest with you, some of the biggest trading mistakes I've made were based on my opinions which were partially formed by news-driven events. I lost both money and opportunities to make money off the March 2009 bottom because I allowed the bear-news to bleed into my trading. It took awhile, but now days the world could be falling apart around me and I'll be oblivious to it. Bottom line I don't trade the news I trade the price.
 
Yeah, I should probably never listen to any financial info on TV (MSNBC etc). It tends to make me more confused on when to trade and when not to trade.
 
jkenjohnson said:
Yeah, I should probably never listen to any financial info on TV (MSNBC etc). It tends to make me more confused on when to trade and when not to trade.
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If I want real news without sensationalism I go to NPR's Nightly Bussiness Report. It's a little dry, but it's really really good stuff gleaming with gold nuggets of valuable non-opinionated market/economic/political information. You can watch it on PBS or online, I DVR them myself then watch them over the weekend while I'm doing my market homework.

http://www.pbs.org/nbr/
 
Not to be offensive but NPR used to be known as a pinky station - but now even the commies are more capitalistic than we are as a country. Whatever fires your big Mac is fine.
 
Birchtree said:
Not to be offensive but NPR used to be known as a pinky station - but now even the commies are more capitalistic than we are as a country. Whatever fires your big Mac is fine.
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I understand what you're saying, I'm only speaking to their Nightly Business Report, not the other departments of which some clearly do have an agenda.
 
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