jpcavin's Account Talk

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I was wandering in the desert for ten days - Tommy Gun left a link in my thread so folks could see my comments. There were 3000 hits so everyone knows how bad I was. My thread is still closed so I may be experiencing some residual punishment. At any rate the bull marches on.
 
jpcavin said:
I don't really have a system. I look at the long term trend and I look at the 3 and 10 day sma. When both look good, I stay in. When one is off, I get confused, overthink and get stuck in first gear. That QQQ is seriously low. The rate of change is extremely low. I can't remember if the 3d sma just went below the 10 day sma but if it didn't, it will tomorrow.....unless of course, the market shoots up in a big way.
Last summer when the indexes took a dive, everyone jumped in thinking what a great opportunity...but the market just kept going down. And people kept jumping in, and the markets just kept diving. I was up to over 20% at one time and I stayed in. Didn't lose as much as others did, but it would have been nice to keep my 20%. This time, I don't want to wait until it's too late to get out. I'd like to stay in but......have mixed feelings about it.
Click to expand...


This got me thinking. How do you utilize the 3 day and 10 day sma? I assume when the 3 day crosses the 10 day it is considered the beginning of an uptrend?
 
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jkenjohnson said:
This got me thinking. How do you utilize the 3 day and 10 day sma? I assume when the 3 day crosses the 10 day it is considered the beginning of an uptrend?
Click to expand...
Yes, when the 3 day crosses above the 10 day, it's a buy and the inverse and it crosses the 10 day going down. I like to keep it real simple. I don't understand all those technicals jargon. :D I also look at momentum. Momentum told me I should have gotten out on 4APR. The 3 day sma crossed below the 10 day sma on 5APR.
 
I got 100 shares when it was .35 :D I'm bought 100 more when it was 1.01. I'm keeping this baby!
 
jpcavin said:
Yes, when the 3 day crosses above the 10 day, it's a buy and the inverse and it crosses the 10 day going down. I like to keep it real simple. I don't understand all those technicals jargon. :D I also look at momentum. Momentum told me I should have gotten out on 4APR. The 3 day sma crossed below the 10 day sma on 5APR.
Click to expand...

This may be a dumb question, but how do you look at momentum?

Also, I had a question about freestockcharts.com if anyone uses it. When using the moving average and setting the period or whatever the scale is based on...is that in days or what? When Bquat does his charting I believe he called his moving averages like a 10 day, etc., but when you look at the top of the chart the period is a much larger number than 10. Hopefully my question makes sense.

Thank you!
 
jpcavin said:
Yes, when the 3 day crosses above the 10 day, it's a buy and the inverse and it crosses the 10 day going down. I like to keep it real simple. I don't understand all those technicals jargon. :D I also look at momentum. Momentum told me I should have gotten out on 4APR. The 3 day sma crossed below the 10 day sma on 5APR.
Click to expand...

I think I'll start looking at it in addition to my system to get even better returns.
 
MaStA said:
This may be a dumb question, but how do you look at momentum?

Also, I had a question about freestockcharts.com if anyone uses it. When using the moving average and setting the period or whatever the scale is based on...is that in days or what? When Bquat does his charting I believe he called his moving averages like a 10 day, etc., but when you look at the top of the chart the period is a much larger number than 10. Hopefully my question makes sense.

Thank you!
Click to expand...

I know absolutely nothing about charts. I tried to figure it out but they just give me a headache. If you look at my older posts from mid last year or so, I do a computation to get the 5, 15, and 25 day rate of change and I combine the 3 to get a composite momentum score. When momentum goes below 4, it's a sell and when it goes above 4 it's a buy. It's not very accurate but it's good enough for me considering my meager level of understanding where technicals are concerned.
 
jpcavin said:
Yes, when the 3 day crosses above the 10 day, it's a buy and the inverse and it crosses the 10 day going down. I like to keep it real simple. I don't understand all those technicals jargon. :D I also look at momentum. Momentum told me I should have gotten out on 4APR. The 3 day sma crossed below the 10 day sma on 5APR.
Click to expand...

I do something similar (FOR ETFs) but I also look for when the equity price crosses these short MAs as an early indicator. Whether or not this I consider this a "buy" or "sell" depends on other factors, namely if we're in a bullish or bearish pattern and sentiment. Remember that the EMA is more sensitive to recent prices than the SMA. You can play with those a bit to see what kind of different scenarios can be generated.

The thing to remember is that if you wait for MA crosses you will ALMOST ALWAYS miss tops and bottoms because they are going to lag the price action by a few days. Especially in a volatile market. Not necessarily a bad thing, but something to consider.
 
jkenjohnson said:
I think I'll start looking at it in addition to my system to get even better returns.
Click to expand...
It's probably not the best system given our limited IFTs but it's simple enough for me to understand. :D I belief this 3/10 day system works best combined with stochastics
 
jpcavin said:
It's probably not the best system given our limited IFTs but it's simple enough for me to understand. :D I belief this 3/10 day system works best combined with stochastics
Click to expand...

Why don't you post your daily signal in your signature, then I won't have to do that work - no use in doing it twice. I'm sure I'm not the only one interested.
 
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