jpcavin's Account Talk

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Newer traders will tend to apply a variable trading system to varying market conditions. This means they have to right on two fronts - what style to apply and what the market is going to do. By fixing your style, you only have to be right on one side of the equation. It's just math.
We're working on our third down day, weakness overseas persists, as we approach quarter end. But there's something happening behind the scenes that you need to know.....
Breaking Point | Jay DeVincentis | Safehaven.com
 
Anyone thinking about getting out next week? After reading the below article, I am keeping an eye on QQQ :worried:


STOCK BAROMETER ANALYSIS - We remain in Buy Mode, but the barometer has ticked into Sell Mode, meaning we will position short on a close below the 9dma at 67.32

2012 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/12, 1/27, 2/16, 2/23, 3/16, 4/9, 4/25. These dates have an accuracy of +/- 2 days.
 
I just posted briefly about the NASDAQ, the recent rise by AAPL has been concerning to me. If AAPL starts to correct the NASDAQ could be an issue...the chart for AAPL is starting to look rough. We need buyers!!

jpcavin said:
Anyone thinking about getting out next week? After reading the below article, I am keeping an eye on QQQ :worried:


STOCK BAROMETER ANALYSIS - We remain in Buy Mode, but the barometer has ticked into Sell Mode, meaning we will position short on a close below the 9dma at 67.32

2012 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/12, 1/27, 2/16, 2/23, 3/16, 4/9, 4/25. These dates have an accuracy of +/- 2 days.
Click to expand...
 
jkenjohnson said:
The VIX is 16.44, so no fear in the market yet. If my signal stays on a buy, I am definitely staying in.
Click to expand...
I don't really have a system. I look at the long term trend and I look at the 3 and 10 day sma. When both look good, I stay in. When one is off, I get confused, overthink and get stuck in first gear. That QQQ is seriously low. The rate of change is extremely low. I can't remember if the 3d sma just went below the 10 day sma but if it didn't, it will tomorrow.....unless of course, the market shoots up in a big way.
Last summer when the indexes took a dive, everyone jumped in thinking what a great opportunity...but the market just kept going down. And people kept jumping in, and the markets just kept diving. I was up to over 20% at one time and I stayed in. Didn't lose as much as others did, but it would have been nice to keep my 20%. This time, I don't want to wait until it's too late to get out. I'd like to stay in but......have mixed feelings about it.
 
jpcavin said:
I don't really have a system. I look at the long term trend and I look at the 3 and 10 day sma. When both look good, I stay in. When one is off, I get confused, overthink and get stuck in first gear. That QQQ is seriously low. The rate of change is extremely low. I can't remember if the 3d sma just went below the 10 day sma but if it didn't, it will tomorrow.....unless of course, the market shoots up in a big way.
Last summer when the indexes took a dive, everyone jumped in thinking what a great opportunity...but the market just kept going down. And people kept jumping in, and the markets just kept diving. I was up to over 20% at one time and I stayed in. Didn't lose as much as others did, but it would have been nice to keep my 20%. This time, I don't want to wait until it's too late to get out. I'd like to stay in but......have mixed feelings about it.
Click to expand...

I just recovered from my losses last summer when I was using a premium system (which will remain anonymous). My system, although backtested, would have had me out of the markets during all of that Europenan debt crap and the Budget Debacle, so I am sticking with it.
 
"There are certain things we look for when markets are selling off. Generally I'm looking for a level of selling intensity to reach a level that suggests the market has to bounce the next day. We did not reach that level. If the Stock market bounces today into Monday, then I would be more bearish - versus the stock market tanking today, and putting in a more signifiant low next week - then I'd be more bullish."

Selling Intensity | Jay DeVincentis | Safehaven.com
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
Bounce down, bad jobs numbers :(
Click to expand...
Seems like an overreaction. S&P futures down almost 2%... Really? Tom used to post some stats about reactions when jobs report was over or under by 50,000. I think the initial reaction was reversed the next day. I hope that's the case.
 
clester said:
Seems like an overreaction. S&P futures down almost 2%... Really? Tom used to post some stats about reactions when jobs report was over or under by 50,000. I think the initial reaction was reversed the next day. I hope that's the case.
Click to expand...

Hopefully over the weekend, people will come to their senses.
 
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