jpcavin's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Judy,

To answer your question on STR - any price under $19 is a steal. It currently yields 3.37%.

 

[jpcavin]

Judy,

To answer your question on STR - any price under $19 is a steal. It currently yields 3.37%.

Thanks Dennis!

 

[Mapper]

I do something similar (FOR ETFs) but I also look for when the equity price crosses these short MAs as an early indicator. Whether or not this I consider this a "buy" or "sell" depends on other factors, namely if we're in a bullish or bearish pattern and sentiment. Remember that the EMA is more sensitive to recent prices than the SMA. You can play with those a bit to see what kind of different scenarios can be generated.

The thing to remember is that if you wait for MA crosses you will ALMOST ALWAYS miss tops and bottoms because they are going to lag the price action by a few days. Especially in a volatile market. Not necessarily a bad thing, but something to consider.

By the way. For TNA and SPY:
The price action has now passed the 3, 5 and 10 day SMAs
The 3 day crossed the 5 to the up side
&
IF, I stress the "IF", we get a close at today's levels and a little more follow trough on the upside the 3 day will have surpassed the 10.
Not long after the 3 can pass the 10

These are the types of things I look for in short period SMAs. I'll feel much more confident in more bullish action IF the 3rd conditions happens. Let me stress again, this is only part of my decision making process. To summarize, because I'm in long ETFs, I'm starting to like what I see.

 

[jpcavin]

By the way. For TNA and SPY:
The price action has now passed the 3, 5 and 10 day SMAs
The 3 day crossed the 5 to the up side
&
IF, I stress the "IF", we get a close at today's levels and a little more follow trough on the upside the 3 day will have surpassed the 10.
Not long after the 3 can pass the 10

These are the types of things I look for in short period SMAs. I'll feel much more confident in more bullish action IF the 3rd conditions happens. Let me stress again, this is only part of my decision making process. To summarize, because I'm in long ETFs, I'm starting to like what I see.

I use the NASDAQ simply because it's more volatile. When I look at the 3d/10d sma for the NASDAQ, and momentum, I don't see anything good yet. But I'm just learning as I go. Meaing I could have missed something or am missing something. :blink:

 

[Mapper]

Thanks, let us know if you start seeing any improvement in the NASDAQ.

I'll add, just seeing these moves doesn't mean anything solid, the short SMAs really bounce a lot. Also, like we noted early, you can't really use MA crosses to pick bottoms and tops. I do try to see the coming trend with them...sadly, because the trend had been so relentless, I didn't wait for this to buy back in on my last TNA purchase.

 

[jpcavin]

Can someone explain how the W%R is used to determine entry and exit points? What does it mean when it goes over and below 20 and over and below 80.
I know about being overbought and oversold. Just need to know how to apply it for buy and sell

 

[jpcavin]

Bought me some LNG and some F.

 

[jpcavin]

Bought some ANR at 16.20. I should have set the limit price lower but I got antsy.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Can someone explain how the W%R is used to determine entry and exit points? What does it mean when it goes over and below 20 and over and below 80.
I know about being overbought and oversold. Just need to know how to apply it for buy and sell

What is the W%R. It sounds like you are talking about the VIX?

 

[Mapper]

Bought some ANR at 16.20. I should have set the limit price lower but I got antsy.

Assuming you are buying that for a long term holding, the intro price isn't necessarily a bit deal. I've been eyeing ACI for a couple months and now looking more closely at ANR. I think both could be good gambles. It's the whole nat gas issue is the wild card I'm worried about right now.

 

[jpcavin]

What is the W%R. It sounds like you are talking about the VIX?

Williams %R is an overbought and oversold technical indicator that can give easy to interpret buy and sell signals. It is very similar to the Stochastic Fast indicator. It's very useful and profitable during sideways, non-trending markets. I already figured out how to use it. Basically, when the Williams %R indicator is below the oversold line (20) and it rises to cross over the 20 line, then buy. Sell when the Williams %R indicator is above the overbought line (80) and then falls below the 80 line.

 

[jpcavin]

Assuming you are buying that for a long term holding, the intro price isn't necessarily a bit deal. I've been eyeing ACI for a couple months and now looking more closely at ANR. I think both could be good gambles. It's the whole nat gas issue is the wild card I'm worried about right now.

Yes, all my stock purchases are long term. It already gives me indigestion having to pay a commision to purchase stock...think I want to pay to sell? :laugh:

 

[jkenjohnson]

FYI. I flipped over to a sell for my TSP.

 

[jpcavin]

FYI. I flipped over to a sell for my TSP.

Why? Is this what your system is saying or are you the driving force?

 

[jkenjohnson]

Why? Is this what your system is saying or are you the driving force?

100% system. No gut feeling or emotion involved. I was out for two days and only had access to limited data. I entered some incorrect prices for the S fund at home last evening and re-entered the correct numbers and it flipped to a sell. As I stated in my thread, I think it flipped to a sell in December one day and flipped back the next day. Not saying that it will happen like that again, but it is possible.

 

[jkenjohnson]

I thought that Ford's expansion news into China might drive the stock up, but it hasn't moved much.

 

[jpcavin]

I thought that Ford's expansion news into China might drive the stock up, but it hasn't moved much.

Give it time. I'm gambling on sales from the new electric Focus.

 

[jpcavin]

Markets look really good right now. If I was a gambling person, I would be tempted to make an entry today. But I'm already in, so I think I'll stay...:laugh:

 

[Birchtree]

Judy,

If you have a few spill over dollars you might take a look at CX (Cemex) as an infrastructure play. And yes, I'm deep in it.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Markets look really good right now. If I was a gambling person, I would be tempted to make an entry today. But I'm already in, so I think I'll stay...:laugh:

Good luck.