jpcavin's Account Talk

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TSPTalk friends, as some of you know, life kicked my butt and I had to take some time off to concentrate on my health. You know the saying, "a dog wags its tail with its heart" - well, I am like that dog today. I want to say so much, but i can hardly find the words. So, I'll just say thank you for your friendship and your prayers. You have been a blessing in my life and I am sincerely thankful to God for giving me such caring friends.

Be sure to take some time out of your busy life to enjoy the magic of Christmas with friends and family and remember the Reason for the season.

Merry Christmas!

 
JP I Pray that the New Year will be a turn around point for you and your family, health, wealth and Happiness to you all.
Norman
 
merry xmas cougar, i hope you are healing well and back to your old playful perky self again soon. did you go for the double d's?
 
Hi Judy! Yes...hope you are well soon and back to your bantering jolly self. Definitely miss you on the site. Take care and Merry Christmas!!! :smile:
 
Good that you're getting your energy back, jp, just in time for Christmas, with a great new year to look forward to. best wishes.
 
I believe I have found the Holy Grail of trading strategies. Enter when Burro's Ark exits and exit when jkenjohnson enters. Not to knock Donkey's stellar performance, but the market seems to gain a few points when Donkey gets out and it tanks just as soon as jkenjohnson enters. :laugh:
 
jpcavin said:
True but maybe prices will "zig" a little before they "zag"? :D I just felt like gambling. :nuts: We'll see what happens next week.
Click to expand...

Absolutely...wasn't really suggesting where the market will or won't go in the next several days. Just wanted to point out that the T/A can be considered a little different this time due to the lower high.

If I may expound on my soapbox a bit.

In poker, the best players are making decisions based on mathematical probabilities and odds. Lesser players are not. In any given hand, the lesser player can get the lucky Ace on the River even though they played the hand poorly--beating the pro player, who played the hand perfectly textbook. (But that's just one hand. Guess who will eventually win all the chips?)

My point: Regardless of what the market does over the next few trading days, you made the right call because you simply felt like gambling.

Imho:

A good call is one where a system is adhered to. (A bad call is one where the system is ignored.) A good system is one that is sufficiently profitable over a statistically meaningful time frame.

In your case, you utilized your gambling system. :) And in such a system--even though it may not be profitable over a statistically meaningful time frame, there are few wrong calls.

I believe this is how most serious players of games of incomplete information view it: The call is judged by what was known at the time the call was made (and by what should, or is expected to happen based upon that information); not by what is known after the fact.

:soapbox:
 
userque said:
Absolutely...wasn't really suggesting where the market will or won't go in the next several days. Just wanted to point out that the T/A can be considered a little different this time due to the lower high.

If I may expound on my soapbox a bit.

In poker, the best players are making decisions based on mathematical probabilities and odds. Lesser players are not. In any given hand, the lesser player can get the lucky Ace on the River even though they played the hand poorly--beating the pro player, who played the hand perfectly textbook. (But that's just one hand. Guess who will eventually win all the chips?)

My point: Regardless of what the market does over the next few trading days, you made the right call because you simply felt like gambling.

Imho:

A good call is one where a system is adhered to. (A bad call is one where the system is ignored.) A good system is one that is sufficiently profitable over a statistically meaningful time frame.

In your case, you utilized your gambling system. :) And in such a system--even though it may not be profitable over a statistically meaningful time frame, there are few wrong calls.

I believe this is how most serious players of games of incomplete information view it: The call is judged by what was known at the time the call was made (and by what should, or is expected to happen based upon that information); not by what is known after the fact.

:soapbox:
Click to expand...

Thank you for expounding on your soapbox. :laugh: Yep, this is my poker face. I may or may not get lucky. 50/50.... I'm ok with that. :nuts:
 
userque said:
Absolutely...wasn't really suggesting where the market will or won't go in the next several days. Just wanted to point out that the T/A can be considered a little different this time due to the lower high.

If I may expound on my soapbox a bit.

In poker, the best players are making decisions based on mathematical probabilities and odds. Lesser players are not. In any given hand, the lesser player can get the lucky Ace on the River even though they played the hand poorly--beating the pro player, who played the hand perfectly textbook. (But that's just one hand. Guess who will eventually win all the chips?)

My point: Regardless of what the market does over the next few trading days, you made the right call because you simply felt like gambling.

Imho:

A good call is one where a system is adhered to. (A bad call is one where the system is ignored.) A good system is one that is sufficiently profitable over a statistically meaningful time frame.

In your case, you utilized your gambling system. :) And in such a system--even though it may not be profitable over a statistically meaningful time frame, there are few wrong calls.

I believe this is how most serious players of games of incomplete information view it: The call is judged by what was known at the time the call was made (and by what should, or is expected to happen based upon that information); not by what is known after the fact.

:soapbox:
Click to expand...

brilliant. that is the way. even when you get sucked out on the river by some joker. long run it pays, and if it doesn't then you are doing something wrong. that's money right there, i'll bet that all day and take my random lumps.
 
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