jpcavin's Account Talk

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JTH said:
You could perhaps figure out a way to combine the TSP returns calculator with the triple ROC using the combination of the 2 to backtest your results. This is going to sound corny but it's true, all indicators do is interpret prices, the best indicator you can use is the one between your ears...
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Okay, it's going to take me a while to figure out what you mean by combining the TSP returns calculator with the triple ROC. Do you mean create a triple momentum timing model for each TSP fund, identifying the buy and sell signals and then calculating the returns if those signals were followed/implemented?
 
JudyB, congratulations on finding something that's working so well for you so far. but you and JTH are making my head hurt. think I'll stick with DeMark system-less formulas, more counting. btw, we're on week 6 of 9 countdown-assuming we close at or below 1199 tomorrow. reason I'm keeping my fingers and toes out of this meat grinder right now. that and fact we went into bear market last week by many different methods of calculating, including the one I use-weekly EMA 13 x 34. yowza. I'm not fast enough for pennies beating bulldozers. need more wheaties.
 
alevin said:
JudyB, congratulations on finding something that's working so well for you so far. but you and JTH are making my head hurt. think I'll stick with DeMark system-less formulas, more counting. btw, we're on week 6 of 9 countdown-assuming we close at or below 1199 tomorrow. reason I'm keeping my fingers and toes out of this meat grinder right now. that and fact we went into bear market last week by many different methods of calculating, including the one I use-weekly EMA 13 x 34. yowza. I'm not fast enough for pennies beating bulldozers. need more wheaties.
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Ok, Alevin, I'll bite - which DeMark system are you following? How does it jive with our IFT limits? :)
 
alevin said:
JudyB, congratulations on finding something that's working so well for you so far. but you and JTH are making my head hurt. think I'll stick with DeMark system-less formulas, more counting. btw, we're on week 6 of 9 countdown-assuming we close at or below 1199 tomorrow. reason I'm keeping my fingers and toes out of this meat grinder right now. that and fact we went into bear market last week by many different methods of calculating, including the one I use-weekly EMA 13 x 34. yowza. I'm not fast enough for pennies beating bulldozers. need more wheaties.
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Tell me more about your system please. :)
 
jpcavin said:
Tell me more about your system please. :)
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Judy, I talk about these in my account thread. not on a daily basis because I have to annotate charts with Paint program for showing what I'm looking at. DeMark indicators are used by traders who have access to Bloomberg terminals. Worden Brothers software also has these indicators available in their charting software. the indicators are not widely available elsewhere for free chart indicator programs, so I do my own charting. DeMark is very complex system developed by guy named Tom DeMark, book about it, available from Bloomberg books or Amazon. many sets of indicators built around support/resistance and daily/weekly closes and maximum price ranges on the candles-any timeframe.

I look at days/weeks/months timeframes mainly. all about counting and patterns. I guess there are formulas behind it all for automated charting software that uses the indicators, but I do my counting visually once I see pattern start developing.

I only use some of the simplest indicators among the set, there are many more to learn. the DeMark system counts I use are 9 and 13. the nine-count is consecutive set of 9 days (weeks) with closes lower (higher) than 4 days (weeks prior). Once the 9-count is completed, I go into a 13 count based on cumulative (not consecutive) days (weeks) with closes lower (higher) than 2 days (weeks) prior. If get to a 9 and/or 13 count-beware-predictor that trend change could happen any time. It's a trend-predicting system, not trend-following.

Right now, if we get a finished weekly 9-count down before we hit up-count support (down at 1091; Sept 7 of last year), the system predicts high probability we'll continue on down into a 13-count down before we get a reliable weekly uptrend going again for awhile. keeps me out of whipsaws for one thing. I'm a slow-reactor when I'm still gaining confidence in a method.

The EMA thing is unrelated. learned that one from Karl Denninger-economic/political blogger-trader. when weekly EMA 13 crosses weekly EMA 34 and difference is 1% or more, we're in a new bear market. that happened at last weeks close, I was talking about the progress of the crossover and growing % difference in my thread last week.
 
Alevin
Your system makes my head hurt. :D:toung: So many systems out there. Who has the time to learn all of them??? Why couldn't I get an inheritance instead? :nuts:
 
Hello JudyBreeze,

Looks like your ROC triple momentum indicator for Nasdaq is issuing a really strong buy signal if I am reading it correctly, around +17 for the cumulative. :)
 
Happy Trails said:
Hello JudyBreeze,

Looks like your ROC triple momentum indicator for Nasdaq is issuing a really strong buy signal if I am reading it correctly, around +17 for the cumulative. :)
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It gives me a sense of relief when the cumulative is positive. :D I actually use it with other indicators (i.e. SMA, Volume, Slow
Stochastic, etc) for buy confirmation ;)
 
Well, I've been too busy to monitor the markets for a few days. Just got back and what a rude welcome! Still in the S Fund and not sure whether to cut my losses or let it ride for the next few years. :sick: If this is a repeat of August, it's going to really suck! :sick:
 
jpcavin said:
Well, I've been too busy to monitor the markets for a few days. Just got back and what a rude welcome! Still in the S Fund and not sure whether to cut my losses or let it ride for the next few years. :sick: If this is a repeat of August, it's going to really suck! :sick:
Click to expand...
If your indications don't say bail... well...

Up to you :D
 
jpcavin said:
Well, I've been too busy to monitor the markets for a few days. Just got back and what a rude welcome! Still in the S Fund and not sure whether to cut my losses or let it ride for the next few years. :sick: If this is a repeat of August, it's going to really suck! :sick:
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Yea, you're only 5 above me on the tracker. What's up with that?:) Don't let me catch you by default.:D
 
Bquat said:
Yea, you're only 5 above me on the tracker. What's up with that?:) Don't let me catch you by default.:D
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You probably will catch up. I am not bailing! It's do or die for me!:D In fact, I think I'll DCA while I'm at it. :laugh:
 
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