James48843 Account Talk

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ok- You're not going to believe this- but I just pulled the trigger and made the trade BACK into stocks.


Now- I THINK that it cleared before the noon deadline. My computer clock said 12:00 when I clicked the final button. But I won't know for sure until tonight whether or not I made it in time.

These charts are all crazy, and for some strange reason, I feel a one or two day reversal coming on, so I 'm going to try and catch a wave.

Will decide tomorrow if that was an ok move, or a bad move.

What i DO know- is that i've been OUT the last week or more, with a 5% drop, and so I'm in better shape now than if I had stayed in the whole time.

Wish me luck. Thinking this is going to be a quick and and out move for a couple of days.
 
Dang- Just checked, and NO, it wasn't before the deadline. It's telling me now I have until noon tomorrow to cancel the trade.


So I'm going to do that, cancel it, and look at it with fresh eyes tomorrow. I really thought I was going to get a one-day 1.5% or greater swing up tomorrow- but I was 30 seconds too late.
 
I almost jumped in too...but things are too cloudy still for me to see a direction. I like your idea about the 5% drop and a buy in lower but I keep thinking we didn't actually create a solid floor for a climb. If I'm right then any upswing will be short lived and we have gaps to fill to the downside in the near future.

I'm not saying you can't make money this week by actively trading. I am just being extra conservative since I only have one buy in move left and am hoping that we have a chance for greater gains later this month. Big IFS but with China/Wall-Shutdown/Brexit all having such huge economic influences, IF one of these breaks solidly positive there should, hopefully, be at least 3-5% profit to be made.... if you can time it right.
 
Now...this is nuts.

Once again the roller coaster is headed downward today. Amazing.

The other day I was trying to catch the knife for a one-day in-and-out uptick because the market looked oversold to me.

Well, I missed the day (only because I was a minute late in trying to catch it, and ended up cancelling the trade because I missed the 12 noon cutoff by 30 seconds).

But I don't want to try anything like that again right now.

this day tells me that there is a sharp edge trying to catch a falling knife.

I will sit back a little more, digest who is going in and who is going out, and look for another opportunity.

In the meantime, I'm just going to sit in "G" some more, and sip some coffee, and watch.


Have a great day.

P.S.- I'm watching the S Fund's index today ($EMW) on stockcharts.com

At this very minute, the $EMW is trading at 1274.57

The previous cycle's low was 1273.97

If the $EMW HOLDS at this 1273.97 level, then that will be a good sign that we've got wider support level here- and maybe a place to jump back in.

If the 1273.97 does not hold, and it breaks down further, I don't know yet where the next level of support might be, and it could be bad for a few days.

We'll just have to wait and see what happens today.
 
ok- The $EMW went to 1272.43 before bouncing back. That is a new cyclic low.
Buyers coming back in now. Let's see if it holds for the day.
 
But ^DJT hit 9540...a yearly low. Last time it was in this range would have been August/September of 17. I hope we get a bounce from here but thinking this looks worse and worse.
 
The $EMW hit 1264 before bouncing off. That tells me we have NOT likely to have seen the low yet.



I'm sitting on the sidelines until further notice.

Drinking some coffee, being glad I'm out.
 
Another day where all I can say is "This is just Nuts".


Sitting on the sidelines, sipping some coffee.
coffee.jpg

Nope- not jumping in this morning.

Seems crazy, doesn't it?
 
It is crazy...but be glad you are out. about 20 minutes into trading and C is at 2568 and S is at 1233 (both are support levels I had penciled in...back in 2017. Seems like pressure is trying to break those levels too.:sick:
 
Everything I am looking at- the MACRO and the MICRO data points of this economy, are saying that overall, things are doing ok.

Not sure what this little blip is in the last two months- other than just a normal re-balancing of the numbers.

I don't see anything that really is going to hurt the markets, EXCEPT for the foreign trade/ tariff issues; the potential of a government shutdown, and various other things that are easily corrected- should Congress exert it's authority.

In the meantime, all the big data is showing we're still ok.

Here is a page I am browsing, for things like the Case-Shiller Home Sales/Prices index; inflation number, etc.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/32455

And those numbers all seem to be ok- nothing sticks out at me.
 
Just a little reminder of the OFFICIAL POSITION of the TSP Board- they don't want you to move anything - they want you to just sit and take it.
(Meanwhile, "Friends don't let Friends buy and hold*").


From the TSP Web Site:

--------------------------------------------------------------

"Stick to Your Plan — (February 6, 2018) The stock and bond markets can change rapidly. By the time you react to the situation, the market may be moving in the opposite direction, and you could miss out on significant gains. Remember that investing for retirement is for the long-term. Try not to let short-term market movements steer you off course. To learn more, visit Investment Strategy: Stick to Your Plan."

and

"Stick to Your Plan:Avoid Chasing Returns



Resources

The Price of Bad Timing
Significant movements can occur rapidly in the stock and bond markets. By the time you react to the situation, the market may be moving in the opposite direction. If you miss one or two brief upswings in a decade, your investments may underperform the average market return for the entire period.


Once you've established your retirement goals and a savings strategy that fits your needs, you'll have the best results if you stick to your plan. Don't get sidelined by distractions. Make adjustments to your strategy only after careful consideration.
It's always a good idea to periodically ask yourself whether your retirement portfolio properly reflects your willingness and ability to take risk. But if you are certain about the amount of risk you can tolerate, don't allow short-term market movements to steer you off course.
Suppose, for example, that you have many years before retirement and you have determined that investing in the TSP's stock funds is appropriate for your time horizon because of the potential for higher long-term returns. If you move your money out of your TSP stock funds when the market starts to dip, you may miss out when it bounces back.
An investment strategy of chasing returns or trying to "time the market" means you have to be consistently correct two times: exactly when to get out of a particular asset class and exactly when to get back in. Most investment experts agree that such success is highly unlikely over long periods.
Remember, your investment performance is determined, in large part, by your asset allocation, not by guessing which market sector is going to be in favor at a particular time".* (Official TSP WEBSITE ADVICE, located at: https://www.tsp.gov/PlanningTools/InvestmentStrategy/sticktoyourplan/index.html )


-------------------------------------------------------------


I don't know about anybody else, but I like to actively watch all the economic data, and try and make the best decisions myself based on real data, in real time.

It is true that many people have bad luck when trying to "time a market". Don't do anything you are not comfortable with. It's YOUR money at risk.






 
James48843 said:
Another day where all I can say is "This is just Nuts".


Sitting on the sidelines, sipping some coffee.
Click to expand...

The real question is.... what kind of coffee are you drinking? I found some fantastic coffee up in Bellingham, WA (Wood's coffee shop house blend). It has become my quest in life to find great coffee and this was the second time, in 20 years, I found something this good.

OK, you can talk shop again. :D
 
tsptalk said:
The real question is.... what kind of coffee are you drinking? I found some fantastic coffee up in Bellingham, WA (Wood's coffee shop house blend). It has become my quest in life to find great coffee and this was the second time, in 20 years, I found something this good.

OK, you can talk shop again. :D
Click to expand...

True story:

The best coffee I ever tasted in my entire life, I tasted in a small coffee shop on the Greek Island of Crete, just outside of the U.S. Navy Base at Souda Bay, in the summer of 1985. (33 years ago).

The coffee was hot, steamy, and almost a rich, almost chocolate-y flavor, although it was definitely not chocolate. It was roasted right there in the shop, and the secret was that the water wasn't boiled, but rather heated to just below boiling, and then poured over the finely fresh ground bean powder grounds.

I 've never had another cup of coffee as good as that one, 33 years ago. Although I still am trying to find it's match.

If you find the holy grail of coffee elsewhere, please let me know.
 
I'm not a coffee drinker, but my wife is. She raves about the coffee she has had in pretty much any cafe in Italy.

James48843 said:
True story:

The best coffee I ever tasted in my entire life, I tasted in a small coffee shop on the Greek Island of Crete, just outside of the U.S. Navy Base at Souda Bay, in the summer of 1985. (33 years ago).

The coffee was hot, steamy, and almost a rich, almost chocolate-y flavor, although it was definitely not chocolate. It was roasted right there in the shop, and the secret was that the water wasn't boiled, but rather heated to just below boiling, and then poured over the finely fresh ground bean powder grounds.

I 've never had another cup of coffee as good as that one, 33 years ago. Although I still am trying to find it's match.

If you find the holy grail of coffee elsewhere, please let me know.
Click to expand...
 
James48843 said:
If you find the holy grail of coffee elsewhere, please let me know.
Click to expand...

If you ever go traveling in South America, I highly recommend buying Nicaraguan Coffee. My girlfriend and I traveled there last year and our biggest regret was not coming home with more bags of coffee, it was the best I've had.
 
Just a side note-

Before today's market, the C Fund (S&P 500 ) was showing a MONTHLY LOSS Of -5.72%

Right now I just looked, and the S&P 500 is down an additional -2.63% today.


If that holds- that would make the number- for the month, now at -(8.35)%. for the month.

And that would be the 4th biggest single-month decline in the 40 years I have been investing.

Only the crash of 1987, the downturn of October/November 2008, and one other period in 2010 had larger single-month declines.

Which either means we're due for a bounce back before the end of the month, or else the markets are REALLY not happy.
 
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