Intrepid_Timer's PUBLIC Account Talk

[GEW]

I think you are the victim of a little down day anxiety I/T. A couple more days like this and The Queen Of Hearts will be calling for, "OFF WITH HIS HEAD! You better put a spit-shine on that crystal ball of yours because the natives are getting restless around here.:suspicious:. At least you are mobile so they can't run you down and lynch you for not predicting that earth quake

Your signature phrase tells it all! You need to sand down your last foot so you can get out. Don't let it hit you in the butt...

 

[burrocrat]

The only investors hoping for a quick fix tomorrow are those that are "all in" today. Hope, gut instincts, hairs on the back of neck and wishful thinking never made for much of a strategy.

i wish you would have told me that last thursday.

i'm not much of a system guy, but i consider this one of my important info feeds when making decisions. not just for IT's flags but the discussion among folks serious about trying to grow acct. balances here.

i'm a hunch player pure and simple, personality trait i guess. i've bet all i had a lot way before i ever started working for this outfit. this might not sound much to you guys but low 5 digits is the biggest amount i've ever seen on any statement with my name on it. and half of it was free money from .gov, i always wished i had a rich uncle, wish i'dve figured out this deal a long time before i did.

but i can't think of it as real currency until it's in my hand, so i 'loan' myself half my balance, done it three times now, then pay it back like a forced saving acct. to get it outside the trade restrictions, just to have and hold and move how i want, even spend a significant part of it when it hits my bank.

bottom line is the balance in my tsp consists mainly of the .gov match and the rest is outside or been utilized. so that's part of why i move it so freely on a hunch (i prefer the term vision), it's all free and funny money.

this is the easiest two-for-one hustle i've ever seen, i can't believe it's not illegal.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

I have to admit, some of you guys crack me up! I'm only down about 2% for the month, this beats the heck of the C, S and I funds. Still up for the year and the month isn't over. Still playing with the house's money.........

I'm not having any anxiety at all. I've been through much worse days than this. People are just use to the market being up all the time. I know better than to bail unless my system tells me to bail. There were losing trades in my backtested data, I just hope this isn't one of them...............but it can and will happen at some point. Still, with over 85% of my systems TSP equity trades being winners, I'll stick with her!!

 

[burrocrat]

I have to admit, some of you guys crack me up! I'm only down about 2% for the month, this beats the heck of the C, S and I funds. Still up for the year and the month isn't over. Still playing with the house's money.........

I'm not having any anxiety at all. I've been through much worse days than this. People are just use to the market being up all the time. I know better than to bail unless my system tells me to bail. There were losing trades in my backtested data, I just hope this isn't one of them...............but it can and will happen at some point. Still, with over 85% of my systems TSP equity trades being winners, I'll stick with her!!

i like it. you're optimistic and monogamous, that's 3 things you have going for you. ya got to dance with the one who brung ya.

me, i'm thinking the market doesn't care if libya is free or they beat each other with rocks and sticks. or if japan cools it down or it goes boom. just get the uncertainty over with and we'll see.

i got all .gov and private funds in, either this is a great opportunity or a terrible mistake. i've made a few of those before. i'm betting this thing makes money quick, that's why i put it all in.

turning out to be one heck of a ride either way. how can i lose?

 

[amoeba]

Hail to Vega(smith)

i wish you would have told me that last thursday.

He (Vegasmith) did tell us ....he moved all G on 3/11. We just didn't listen, myself included.

Hail, to vega, hail-to-vega, hail-to-vega,.....hail -tooooo- VEGA!

 

[JTH]

I have to admit, some of you guys crack me up! I'm only down about 2% for the month, this beats the heck of the C, S and I funds. Still up for the year and the month isn't over. Still playing with the house's money.........

Hey I crack myself up too. It wasn't but a few years ago when I thought a 2% down day was like the end of the world! Now it's like woopdeefreakdoo! It's a good thing too, because if I were to ping on every down day I'd be a heart attack waiting to happen. Seriously, who needs that kind of stress? certainly not me...

 

[amoeba]

Maybe no strategy is the best strategy, for now

The only investors hoping for a quick fix tomorrow are those that are "all in" today. Hope, gut instincts, hairs on the back of neck and wishful thinking never made for much of a strategy.

Errrr, what sort of strategy can anyone use to forecast the outcome of a nuclear reactor breach?

It started with meek buying last friday, and has sold ever since........I mean.......the way I look at it; the best case scenario (the reactor is fixed tomorrow) is already baked into the decline - - - - and it could sell off on the "good news" when it comes, and sell even more if it doesn't.

Maybe no strategy (wait and see) is the best strategy.

 

[Geaux4it]

Re: Hail to Vega(smith)

He (Vegasmith) did tell us ....he moved all G on 3/11. We just didn't listen, myself included.

Hail, to vega, hail-to-vega, hail-to-vega,.....hail -tooooo- VEGA!

Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every now and then. lol

 

[vegasmith]

Re: Hail to Vega(smith)

To be fair it was actually lessons learned from April/May 2010 that have been fresh on my mind. I posted this thread back on March 3rd 2011 when I started getting truly worried about the market:

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=9280

Could be like Birchtree says, rocket ship to the moon. Could be a news-driven correction literally right around the corner. Take a look at this:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EVIX+Interactive#chart22:symbol=^vix;r ange=3m;indicator=ema(200,20,50)+bollinger(13,1.25 )+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0; logscale=on;source=undefined

In the past 2 months the VIX has broke the 5, 10, 20, 50 and is now testing the 200 EMA. The volatility is now ping-ponging between the 50 and 200 EMA.

After April/May's 2010 Correction a lot of people were asking WTF happened. BT rightly pointed out that while equities were going up, so was the VIX. Then when the VIX broke the 200 EMA (around 20) the dam burst.

I don't post a lot but I hope other members are watching Friday's Unemployment report and then March 11's Retail Sales report. If Friday's hyped-up report misses badly followed by a bad Retail Sales report.. the bottom will fall out. Heck if Friday misses badly I wouldn't even wait till March 11th.

Then again if both reports are on target or better than expected, rockets to the moon. We'll just have to wait and see. But I suggest with one finger on the buy/sell trigger.

So in truth I should have followed my own advice and got out 4 days sooner. /shrug We live and learn.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Re: Hail to Vega(smith)

He (Vegasmith) did tell us ....he moved all G on 3/11. We just didn't listen, myself included.

Hail, to vega, hail-to-vega, hail-to-vega,.....hail -tooooo- VEGA!

Dang it, I should of listened him to him last year too! Then I could of had an 18% return as opposed to 29%. What was I thinking..................:toung:

But seriously, remember the great returns we had in 2009? My system lost 2.26% in August and still ended the year up over 73%. In 2008 it had a 0.71% loss in November, ended the year up over 45%. In 2007 it had two losses, down 1.09% in Oct. and down 1.95% in Nov and it still ended the year up over 18%. (These are all just S fund numbers and do not include my F and G fund moves).

So, even though I have not had a losing TSP trade in the equity funds in over a year, it doesn't mean it can't or won't happen...............

 

[driz]

Re: Hail to Vega(smith)

Dang it, I should of listened him to him last year too! Then I could of had an 18% return as opposed to 29%. What was I thinking..................:toung:

But seriously, remember the great returns we had in 2009? My system lost 2.26% in August and still ended the year up over 73%. In 2008 it had a 0.71% loss in November, ended the year up over 45%. In 2007 it had two losses, down 1.09% in Oct. and down 1.95% in Nov and it still ended the year up over 18%. (These are all just S fund numbers and do not include my F and G fund moves).

So, even though I have not had a losing TSP trade in the equity funds in over a year, it doesn't mean it can't or won't happen...............

I think those numbers pretty much tell the tale I/T. What you are doing works and though it doesn't work precisely all the time I would love to hear what does. The key words here are" Patience" and "Piggy". Too little of one and too much of the other get the same thing eventually and that's not what any of us want. Just keep doin whatever you do and I for one will wait it out.

 

[FAB1]

The only investors hoping for a quick fix tomorrow are those that are "all in" today. Hope, gut instincts, hairs on the back of neck and wishful thinking never made for much of a strategy.

Lol

 

[amoeba]

Re: Hail to Vega(smith)

Dang it, I should of listened him to him last year too! Then I could of had an 18% return as opposed to 29%. What was I thinking..................:toung:

But seriously, remember the great returns we had in 2009? My system lost 2.26% in August and still ended the year up over 73%. In 2008 it had a 0.71% loss in November, ended the year up over 45%. In 2007 it had two losses, down 1.09% in Oct. and down 1.95% in Nov and it still ended the year up over 18%. (These are all just S fund numbers and do not include my F and G fund moves).

So, even though I have not had a losing TSP trade in the equity funds in over a year, it doesn't mean it can't or won't happen...............

I_T must either be doing a backtest, or have the year wrong, or isolating his S-moves from other moves; only 12 of us were positive in 2008; Poolman lead by a huge margin at 18+%. Here is I_T's return from the tracker archive; and mind you this is NOT a criticism, #48 is a very high rank and nothing to sneeze at (I wish I was #480 this year, for example); making money in a prevailing bear market is a minority of everyone...and factors vary between such markets. His timing last year this year and last has been outstanding.... us non-subscribers will have to wait for his rank movement, in comparison to the market tomorrow....to see what other genies he is able to pull out of his hat. I must say - he does seem to have a fine touch for timing.....so far........definitely shooting better than par

Poolman, the master dipcatcher then (and this year), had such an assortment of one-two day moves, double downs in 2008, just all manner of moves; a Kobe Bryant in a bear cage; while the rest of us cowered in negatory or G-fund. One can only marvel at it.....

48 Intrepid_Investor -17.03%

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Re: Hail to Vega(smith)

Someone needs to read my service overview page:

http://www.tsptalk.com/intrepid.html



Yes, I am talking about backtested data. My system wasn't complete until early last year. Even before my system was finalized, I actually only lost 5.56% in 2008 according to my PIP. I didn't post my moves on the tracker for 3 months while updating my timing system.

According to backtested data, I would of made 54.68% in 08.............as I've said before, I look forward to the next bear market. Not a lot of people, let alone premium services, can say that.

I_T must either be doing a backtest, or have the year wrong, or isolating his S-moves from other moves; only 12 of us were positive in 2008; Poolman lead by a huge margin at 18+%. Here is I_T's return from the tracker archive; and mind you this is NOT a criticism, #48 is a very high rank and nothing to sneeze at (I wish I was #480 this year, for example); making money in a prevailing bear market is a minority of everyone...and factors vary between such markets. His timing last year this year and last has been outstanding.... us non-subscribers will have to wait for his rank movement, in comparison to the market tomorrow....to see what other genies he is able to pull out of his hat. I must say - he does seem to have a fine touch for timing.....so far........definitely shooting better than par

Poolman, the master dipcatcher then (and this year), had such an assortment of one-two day moves, double downs in 2008, just all manner of moves; a Kobe Bryant in a bear cage; while the rest of us cowered in negatory or G-fund. One can only marvel at it.....

48 Intrepid_Investor -17.03%

 

[vegasmith]

Dunno what's with the attention (Vegas mith)

Dang it, I should of listened him to him last year too! Then I could of had an 18% return as opposed to 29%. What was I thinking..................:toung:

Since you've already got my profile up you'll notice I joined TSP Autotracker in June 2010. Half the year had already passed.

Anyway I joined because I was already using the wealth on knowledge on the boards and blogs. Just trying to educate myself and it's probably a similar reason many of you guys joined. So all this "shoulda listened to Vegas" is kinda silly because I was only listening to you guys.

 

[KevinD]

Re: Dunno what's with the attention (Vegas mith)

Since you've already got my profile up you'll notice I joined TSP Autotracker in June 2010. Half the year had already passed.

Anyway I joined because I was already using the wealth on knowledge on the boards and blogs. Just trying to educate myself and it's probably a similar reason many of you guys joined. So all this "shoulda listened to Vegas" is kinda silly because I was only listening to you guys.

So your saying that it's the Vegas "mith?"

 

[vegasmith]

Re: Dunno what's with the attention (Vegas mith)

So your saying that it's the Vegas "mith?"

Hehe yeah, just an old username from friends back in Las Vegas.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Re: Dunno what's with the attention (Vegas mith)

Since you've already got my profile up you'll notice I joined TSP Autotracker in June 2010. Half the year had already passed.

/QUOTE]

Good timing. That was after the >15% pull back in the S fund.........

 

[vegasmith]

Re: Dunno what's with the attention (Vegas mith)

Since you've already got my profile up you'll notice I joined TSP Autotracker in June 2010. Half the year had already passed.

/QUOTE]

Good timing. That was after the >15% pull back in the S fund.........

Thanks, I figured it was as good a time as any to start autotracking.

 

[pmcint01]

Re: Intrepid_Timer's Account Talk Nice Gains

I_T,

Wow, that was a nice pop yesterday! I'm just over 4% gain since I began your system in February. Had 4% before I began so I'm over 8% for the year. Keep up the good work.

Thanks!